The Edmonton Elks head to Regina to take on the Saskatchewan Roughriders in Week 15 of CFL action. Saskatchewan is 6-6 and on pace to make the playoffs, but don't count out an Edmonton side that has gone from a league laughingstock to highly competitive under new quarterback Tre Ford.
CFL betting odds opened with the Riders as 2.5-point home favorites, with that number ticking up to -3 by the middle of the week. Here are my best free CFL picks and predictions for Elks vs. Roughriders on September 16.
Elks vs Roughriders best odds
Elks vs Roughriders picks and predictions
The Edmonton Elks are coming off a home-and-away set of games against the Calgary Stampeders. Although they failed to cover in either contest, they edged the Stamps 25-23 in Edmonton last week after losing by just four points at McMahon Stadium on Labour Day.
The Elks had been far and away the worst team in the CFL until the beginning of August, but things have since changed under Tre Ford. Improved play from their offensive line and a healthy Geno Lewis back in the lineup have also been factors in their offensive turnaround, but Ford has been the primary reason. While the former Hec Crighton winner isn't the most polished passer, he has the arm strength to attack deep, and his dynamic running ability (401 rushing yards on just 39 carries) is a constant threat for defenses to worry about.
Heading into their Week 9 bye, the Elks were averaging a pathetic 13.1 points per game. In the five games since, they have scored 27.8 ppg with Ford under center.
The Saskatchewan Roughriders have some talented defenders but they rank just seventh in the CFL in yards allowed per pass attempt (9.3) while ranking second-last in sacks (25) and takeaways (21). They've surrendered at least 24 points in each of their last six games and are fresh off an ugly 51-6 loss to the Winnipeg Blue Bombers.
With the Elks scoring at least 24 points in all five of Ford's starts, take the Over 21.5 on their team total on Friday.
My best bet: Elks team total Over 21.5 (-106 at FanDuel)
Elks vs Roughriders same-game parlay
Elks team total Over 21.5 (-106)
Tre Ford Under 207.5 passing yards (-114)
Kevin Brown Over 62.5 rushing yards (-114)
Ford is a dynamic QB, but with the exception of Edmonton's Week 12 showdown against Ottawa's brutal secondary, he has thrown for fewer than 200 yards in his other four starts.
Part of the reason that Ford hasn't been throwing for a ton of yards is that he hasn't needed to. The Elks have been getting off to fast starts which allows them to play to their strength, which is running the football.
Edmonton running back Kevin Brown is now second in the league with 829 rushing yards. That's pretty surprising when you consider how little he was being used earlier in the year when the Elks constantly had negative game scripts.
The presence of Ford has opened things up for Brown, who is averaging 97.4 rushing yards per game over the last five contests. Brown hasn't had fewer than 68 yards in any of those games and is coming off a 143-yard performance against the Stamps.
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Elks vs Roughriders spread and Over/Under analysis
Both the spread and total have ticked up half a point with the line moving from Roughriders -2.5 to -3 and the O/U going from 46 to 46.5.
The Riders have won nine of the last 10 meetings between these teams. That said, the Elks upset them as 8-point underdogs in Regina last September and they lost by just a single point at Mosaic earlier this season.
The Elks are just 3-10 straight up this year but all three of those wins came in the last five weeks. The only defeats during that span came in games against the Bombers and Stamps where they had big leads but collapsed in the fourth quarter.
Before last week's ugly road loss in Winnipeg, the Riders had gone 3-1 SU and against the spread in their previous four games, including upset wins at home against the Bombers and Lions. While Ford has given a boost to the Elks, Saskatchewan has also gotten a spark from third-string QB Jake Dolegala following a Week 10 injury to Mason Fine.
Dolegala put together a pair of impressive starts against the Stampeders and Bombers in Weeks 11 and 13 but was held to just 113 passing yards in the Banjo Bowl rematch against Winnipeg last week.
Elks vs Roughriders trend to know
The Over is 5-0 in Saskatchewan's last five games overall. Find more CFL betting trends for Elks vs. Roughriders.
Elks vs Roughriders game info
| Location: | Mosaic Stadium, Regina, SK |
| Date: | Friday, September 15, 2023 |
| Kickoff: | 9:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TSN |
Elks vs Roughriders key injuries
Elks: Steven Dunbar Jr. WR (Questionable), Marloshawn Franklin Jr. DB (Questionable),Marcus Lewis DB (Questionable), Enock Makonzo SLB (Out), Aaron Grymes DB (Out), Daniel Ross DT (Out).
Roughriders: Deontai Williams DB (Questionable), Anthony Lanier II DL (Questionable), Jayden Dalke DB (Out), Rolan Milligan Jr. DB (Out), Jerald Hawkins OT (Out), Trevor Harris QB (Out).
Find our latest CFL injury reports.
