The Toronto Argonauts head to Montreal to face the Alouettes in CFL action on Friday night. CFL betting lines opened with the Argos as 3.5-point road favorites for this Week 6 showdown, but money has come in on the visitors and they're now -5.
With Winnipeg losing its top spot in the power rankings after getting hammered by B.C. and then the Argos replacing the Lions after destroying them in Week 4, will Toronto be the latest team to fall in a letdown spot? I let you know with my best free CFL picks and predictions for Argos at Als on July 14.
Argonauts vs Alouettes best odds
Argonauts vs Alouettes picks and predictions
With the Argonauts atop the power rankings after going 3-0 straight up and against the spread, it's becoming clear that oddsmakers may have underestimated the defending Grey Cup champions coming into the season, especially since they got even better on defense, which was already the team's biggest strength.
The most glaring question about this team entering the year was whether or not Chad "Swag" Kelly could be a No. 1 quarterback in the league and — so far, at least — he's shown he can.
Sure, Kelly's completion percentage of 66.7% and his 250.3 passing yards per game don't jump off the page but his overall grade of 80.1 per PFF is the second-highest in the league among quarterbacks. He has been consistent, spreads the ball around, and can make plays with his feet.
While Toronto's first two dominant wins of the season came against weak Hamilton and Edmonton squads, the Argos proved they could also excel against more elite competition when they destroyed the Lions 45-24 in Week 4. Since then, they enjoyed a bye week and now face an Alouettes squad playing on just four days of rest after getting clobbered by the Lions on Sunday night.
It's never easy to play football on just four days of rest especially when you have to travel back across the country and don't practice on Monday or Tuesday. It also doesn't help that pass protection has been one of Montreal's biggest problems.
The Als have surrendered a league-worst 22 sacks. While there are several reasons for that (including issues in blitz pickup and QB Cody Fajardo's tendency to hold on to the ball while waiting for receivers to get open downfield) it's still a really bad matchup for their offensive line to face an Argos stop unit that ranks first in the league in pressure rate.
On the other side of the ball, the Als are averaging just 1.75 sacks per game themselves while the Argos have allowed a league-low 1.3 sacks per game. With the Argos winning the battles at the line of scrimmage and boasting a major rest advantage, back them to roll here.
My best bet: Argonauts -5 (-110 at DraftKings)
Argonauts vs Alouettes same-game parlay
Argonauts -5.5 (-110)
Cody Fajardo Over 248.5 passing yards (-114)
A.J. Ouellette Over 64.5 rushing yards (-114)
As dominant as the Argonauts defense has looked, it ranks last in the league in both opponent completion percentage (71.7%) and passing yards allowed per game (321.7).
They limit big plays and come away with plenty of picks but they do allow completions underneath and when they build early leads, opponents are forced to abandon the run. That should mean decent passing numbers for Fajardo, who has thrown for more than 250 yards in every game this season.
While the Als will be relying on their aerial attack if they fall behind early, the Argos will be leaning on their ground game to chew up the clock. Ouellette had 14 carries for 70 yards against the Leos in Week 4 after rumbling for 84 yards versus the Elks in Week 3.
Ouellette should be able to go Over this number against a small Alouettes defensive front that allows 5.3 yards per carry.
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Argonauts vs Alouettes spread and Over/Under analysis
This line opened with the Argos at -3.5 but quickly shifted to -5 with some books now installing the spread at -5.5. The Boatmen have gone 3-0 SU and ATS this season with all of their victories coming by at least 12 points.
The Alouettes won and covered against weak Ticats and Redblacks squads in their first two games of the year. However, their last two contests came against much better Blue Bombers and Lions teams and they lost both by double digits.
Toronto beat Montreal 34-27 when these teams faced off in the playoffs last year. However, the regular-season showdowns were much closer with the Argos winning a pair of contests by just a single point while the Als won 38-33 in the final week of the regular season.
The total is between 47.5 and 48.5 depending on the book and has seen little movement from the opening number.
Argonauts vs Alouettes trend to know
The Argonauts are 6-1-1 ATS in their last eight games versus East Division foes. Find more CFL betting trends for Argonauts vs. Alouettes.
Argonauts vs Alouettes game info
| Location: | Percival Molson Memorial Stadium, Montreal, QC |
| Date: | Friday, July 14, 2023 |
| Kickoff: | 7:30 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TSN |
Argonauts vs Alouettes key injuries
Argonauts: Jordan Williams LB (Out), Eric Sutton DB (Out), Isiah Cage OL (Out), Markeith Ambles WR (Out), Henoc Muamba LB (Out), Shane Richards OL (Out), Dariusz Bladek OL (Out).
Alouettes: Greg Ellingson WR (Out), Nafees Lyon DB (Out), Reggie White Jr. WR (Out), Tyson Philpot WR (Out), Sean Jamieson C (Out).
Find our latest CFL injury reports.
