The Ottawa Redblacks welcome the Montreal Alouettes to TD Place on Saturday night. It's just the midway point of the CFL regular season, but the 5-3 Alouettes could take a stranglehold on an East Division playoff spot if they manage to beat the 3-6 Redblacks for the second time this year.
CFL odds opened with the Als as 2-point road favorites and the Over/Under listed at 46.5 for this Week 11 showdown. Here are my best free CFL picks and predictions for Alouettes vs. Redblacks on August 19.
Alouettes vs Redblacks best odds
Alouettes vs Redblacks picks and predictions
The Ottawa Redblacks offense has made massive strides ever since rookie Dustin Crum took over at quarterback in Week 6.
The Redblacks averaged 28 points per game in five contests with Crum as their starter and have scored at least 24 points in four of those contests. Crum is extremely mobile and has already rushed for 409 yards on just 52 carries, but he's also shown improvement when airing it out. The former Kent State product is coming off his best game as a passer, completing 21 of 26 attempts for 292 yards and three touchdowns against a strong Argonauts defense.
The Montreal Alouettes have struggled against the run, allowing 5.5 yards per rush attempt, so Crum should be able to break off runs in the second level. While the Als have much better numbers against the pass, they've benefitted from playing against some anemic aerial attacks this year.
The only capable quarterbacks they've faced have been Zach Collaros, Vernon Adams Jr., and Chad Kelly in a three-game stretch where they went 0-3 both straight up and against the spread. Collaros was limited by terrible weather in an extremely low-scoring contest while Kelly and Adams both shredded their defense.
Expect Crum to continue carrying this Ottawa offense and take the Over on its team total.
My best bet: Redblacks team total Over 22.5 (-109 at BetRegal)
Alouettes vs Redblacks same-game parlay
Redblacks team total o23.5 (-106)
Alouettes team total u23.5 (-102)
Justin Hardy o55.5 receiving yards (-114)
Caleb Evans got the job done as Montreal's quarterback last week but wasn't asked to throw much in a blowout victory against the Riders. We've seen Evans struggle with consistency when previously given opportunities in Ottawa, averaging just 7.0 yards per attempt and having a 10:17 TD:INT ratio over the last two years.
With Evans starting again on Saturday, the Als will likely lean on William Stanback and their ground game. However, defending the run is what Ottawa does best with the Redblacks allowing a league-low 68.3 rushing yards per game on just 3.6 yards per carry.
If the Redblacks can shut down the Als' running game, they should be able to hold them below their team total.
Justin Hardy has been Crum's favorite target ever since he took over at QB midway through Ottawa's Week 5 game against Hamilton. In just over two quarters of action in that contest, Crum targeted Hardy nine times and connected five times for 50 yards.
Since then, Hardy has become Ottawa's most reliable slotback, racking up more than 60 receiving yards in four of five games in which Crum has started.
Learn how to bet a same-game parlay with these helpful tips and strategies.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Covers may receive advertising commissions for visits to a sportsbook or betting site.
Alouettes vs Redblacks spread and Over/Under analysis
The line has seen minimal movement, with the Als opening as 2-point chalk before shifting to -2.5 and the total staying steady at 47.5.
The Redblacks are on a three-game losing streak and are coming off a 44-31 loss to the Argos. That said, they've been very competitive in those defeats and they are clearly a much better team with Crum at the helm.
Crum led them to back-to-back upset victories against the Bombers and Stampeders in Weeks 6 and 7. While the Redblacks' offense has improved, their defense has regressed and is surrendering 433.2 yards and 31 points per game over their last five.
The Montreal Alouettes have gone 3-0 straight up and against the spread in their last three games and are fresh off a 41-12 beatdown of Saskatchewan last week. The Als tend to play very well when making the short trip to Ottawa, going 7-0 SU and 6-1 ATS in their last seven games at TD Place.
Alouettes vs Redblacks trend to know
The Alouettes are 5-2-1 ATS in their last eight games against East Division foes while the Redblacks are 0-5 ATS in their previous five contests against non-divisional opponents. Find more CFL betting trends for Alouettes vs. Redblacks.
Alouettes vs Redblacks game info
| Location: | TD Place Stadium, Ottawa, ON |
| Date: | Saturday, August 19, 2023 |
| Kickoff: | 7:00 p.m. ET |
| TV: | TSN |
Alouettes vs Redblacks key injuries
Alouettes: Cody Fajardo QB (Game time decision), Kaion-Julien Grant WR (Out), Najee Murray DB (Out), Ciante Evans DB (Out), Avery Williams MLB (Out), Reggie White Jr. WR (Out), Greg Ellingson SB (Out), Sean Jamieson C (Out).
Redblacks: Frankie Griffin OLB (Out), Douglas Coleman III SLB (Out), Brandin Dandridge DB (Out), Justin Howell DB (Out), Money Hunter DB (Out), Blessman Ta'ala DT (Out), Jeremiah Masoli QB (Out), Tyrie Adams QB (Out), Hakeem Bailey DB (Out), Tyson Vrede LB (Out), DeVonte Dedmon WR/KR (Out).
Find our latest CFL injury reports.
