Egypt looks far better equipped to advance past a fundamentally limited Australian squad. While Australia's headline moment of the tournament was a 2-0 victory over Turkey, that scoreline completely misrepresents the match.
The Socceroos managed just 28.4% possession while survival-mode defending allowed Turkey to squander 30 shots. Australia’s simple, low-block approach has worked so far, but their luck is about to run out against a sharp Egyptian attack.
Read on to find out why in my Australia vs. Egypt predictions and World Cup picks for July 3, with kickoff at 2 p.m. ET on FOX.
Australia vs Egypt predictions
| Pick | Price |
|---|---|
| Who will win pick: Egypt | +150 |
| Over/Under pick: Under 1.5 | +140 |
| Goal scorer pick: Mo Salah | +175 |
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TOP PICK
Who will win Australia vs Egypt: Egypt to win in regulation (+150)
Egypt advanced after beating New Zealand 3-1 and drawing 1-1 with both Belgium and Iran. They showed quality in all three matches, proving they're much more than just Mo Salah and Omar Marmoush.
After surprisingly beating Turkey 2-0, Australia failed to score in its next two matches, losing 2-0 to the USA before drawing 0-0 with Paraguay. The Socceroos thrive in the underdog role, but that approach won't work every time. After having just 28.4% possession against Turkey, they increased that figure to 38.1% against the USA and even 56% against Paraguay.
Egypt, meanwhile, impressed in its 1-1 draw with Belgium, showing aggression (28 tackles to Belgium's 17) while controlling large stretches of the game. In the 3-1 win over New Zealand, the Egyptians completed 87% of their passes, attempted 19 shots, and made 20 tackles.
The numbers were just as impressive in the draw with Iran, as they enjoyed 61.4% possession, registered 15 shots, and again completed 87% of their passes. This is a well-balanced team that creates danger from all areas of the pitch.
Both Australia and Egypt have gone unbeaten in nine of their last 10 official matches, but the North Africans' run has been built on very different principles. Australia has absorbed pressure and relied on counterattacks, while Egypt has focused on creativity and high intensity to produce results.
That's what I think will be the difference in Arlington on Friday, and I'm taking Kalshi's +150 price on an Egypt win in regulation.
COVERS INTEL: Of all the teams that finished in the top two of their group at this year’s World Cup, only Croatia (24) had fewer shots than Australia (26). According to Opta, Australia also had the lowest xG at 2.1.Australia vs Egypt Over/Under pick: Under 1.5 (+140)
Australia's last five matches have produced fewer than three goals, and five of their last 11 have seen just one tally. This is not a team that goes all-out against its opponents, instead sticking to its game plan with complete discipline.
Egypt's approach also lends itself to tight, low-scoring matches. Two of its last four games ended in 1-1 draws, and it has scored more than once in just one of its last six matches (including both competitive fixtures and friendlies).
Apart from the 3-1 victory over New Zealand, all of Egypt's recent games against opponents of varying quality have been closely contested and low-scoring.
Australia vs Egypt goal scorer pick: Mo Salah (+175)
Mo Salah has either scored or provided an assist in six of his last nine official matches for Egypt. He remains the focal point of the Egyptian attack, and if there's one player I'd back to score against Australia, it's him.
Salah has registered at least one shot on target in seven of his last nine competitive appearances. He's also Egypt's designated penalty taker and one of the team's free-kick specialists, giving him even more opportunities to get on the scoresheet.
See who will have the best opportunities to score goals in our World Cup set-piece takers guide.
Australia vs Egypt projected lineup
Australia (3-4-2-1): Beach; Circati, Herrington, Souttar; Bos, Irvine, O'Neill, Behich; Volpato, Metcalfe; Irankunda
Egypt (4-2-3-1): Shobeir; Hany, Ibrahim, Rabia, Hafez; Ateya, Fathy; Ziko, Salah, Ashour; Marmoush
Australia vs Egypt injuries
Australia: Jacob Italiano RB (Out), Mathew Leckie LW (Out).
Egypt: Mo Salah FW (Questionable).
Australia vs Egypt weather
This match is being played in a dome.
Australia vs Egypt odds
 Australia |
 Egypt |
|
|---|---|---|
| +257 | Moneyline | +150 |
| +194 | Draw | +194 |
| Over 2.5 (+194) | Total | Under 2.5 (-200) |
Odds courtesy of Kalshi.
How to watch Australia vs Egypt
Check out FIFA's official 2026 World Cup website for more information.
| Location | AT&T Stadium, Arlington, TX |
| Date | Friday, July 3, 2026 |
| Time | 2:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | FOX |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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