2026 World Cup Draw: Instant Reaction, Winners, Losers & Odds Movers

The 2026 World Cup draw is officially complete, and the odds market reacted instantly.

With the groups now locked in and every nation’s path clearly defined, we break down the biggest winners, early losers, updated World Cup odds, and the bets worth targeting before sportsbooks adjust even further.

2026 FIFA World Cup draw results

Below are the full group results for the 2026 FIFA World Cup. Odds to win each group are listed in brackets beside every nation.

• UEFA Path A playoffs: Italy/Northern Ireland/Wales/Bosnia-Herzegovina
• UEFA Path B playoffs: Ukraine/Sweden/Poland/Albania
• UEFA Path C playoffs: Turkey/Romania/Slovakia/Kosovo
• UEFA Path D playoffs: Denmark/North Macedonia/Czechia/Ireland
• FIFA Path A playoff: Jamaica/New Caledonia/Congo
• FIFA Path B playoff: Bolivia/Suriname/Iraq

Odds courtesy of Sports Interaction. 

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Early World Cup predictions

Bet #1: Spain to win (+450 at Sports Interaction)

You can call me a square for taking the World Cup favorites to win the tournament six months before a ball is even kicked, but the draw has set up perfectly for them.

Topping a very winnable group gives them a path to the Finals that has little resistance until the semifinals (depending on how things play out around them), but this is still a team with depth, incredible talent, and a penchant for winning the big game. 

Bet #2: United States to win Group D (+100 at Sports Interaction)

There's a lot to like about the United States in Group D, and I think this number is going to shorten up with each day in the build-up to the tournament.

I give you the full breakdown below. 

Bet #3: Netherlands to win Group F (-133 at Sports Interaction)

While Japan may give them a good fight, the Netherlands are far and away the best team in this group.

They can score goals with the best of teams, and defensively, they've been proven to be a tough team to break down.

This line will shorten in a hurry. 

Biggest winners of the 2026 World Cup draw

These nations gained the most from today’s bracket reveal, whether through soft groups, favorable knockout paths, or sharp odds movement.

Winner #1: United States

The United States just landed its most manageable World Cup group in over a decade. They will have the talent advantage against both Paraguay and Australia, and depending on who comes out of the UEFA Path C playoffs, they will feel confident in their ability to progress.

Paraguay struggled for goals during qualifying, netting just 14 times in 18 matches. Australia finished second in Asian qualifying behind Japan, but the USA beat them in October in a friendly.

A lot can change between now and kick off, but the U.S. is in a good spot. Should they top the group, they'll draw a third-place team in the Round of 32. 

Winner #2: Argentina 

One look at Argentina's group and you'll understand why La Albiceleste are winners of the draw. Jordan and Astria will prove the weak links, while Algeria could provide some resistance, but not enough to derail the defending champions early on in the tournament.

Winning the group would have them playing one of Uruguay/Saudi Arabia, or Cabo Verde (assuming Spain wins Group H). I think you can pencil the Argentines down for a deep run this tournament. 

Winner #3: Spain

Speak of Spain, a group consisting of Cabo Verde (who they open with), Saudi Arabia, and Uruguay won't have them losing any sleep.

They are the early World Cup favorites, and rightfully so. They will take on 2J in the Round of 32, which means one of Algeria/Austria/Jordan.

That's no sweat for La Roja. 

Winner #4: Soccer fans

We've got some excellent games on tap in the Group Stage this year, with Brazil taking on a very good Morocco side in their opening fixture. The Netherlands and Japan also renew their acquaintances at a major tournament.

Kylian Mbappe vs. Erling Haaland will even square off in what I believe is the second toughest group, lagging only behind Group L.

And a personal favorite — Canada, potentially hosting Italy at BMO Field in the team's opening game. 

Biggest losers of the 2026 World Cup draw

Not everyone walked away happy. These teams got hammered by the bracket.

Loser #1: France 

There were a lot of teams that openly admitted to not wanting to draw Norway and deal with Erling Haaland.

Unfortunately for France, they not only have to deal with Haaland but also a very underrated Senegal side, which has beaten the likes of England this year and conceded just three goals in qualifying. 

Loser #2: Canada 

It was all going according to plan for the Canadians until Wayne Gretzky pulled out the Pot 4 ball that read "UEFA Path A Winner".

That means a very friendly group just got a hell of a lot tougher with the likes of Italy, Wales, Bosnia-Herzegovina, or Northern Ireland joining them. 

Four points would likely be enough to qualify as a third-place team, but many Canadians were hoping for a better fate. 

United States' World Cup group outlook

For the United States, this draw should feel like a win. Paraguay and Australia aren’t outmatched tactically, but the U.S. has the stronger squad in both cases, and whoever emerges from UEFA Path C won’t drastically change expectations.

Paraguay’s attack sputtered in qualifying, scoring only 14 times across 18 games, while Australia finished behind Japan in Asia and recently fell to the U.S. in a friendly.

Things can shift over the next few months, but the Americans are in a strong position, and finishing first would earn them a Round of 32 date with a third-place team.

Canada's World Cup group outlook

Canada got the exact group it didn’t want. The Canadians looked set for a comfortable path until Wayne Gretzky pulled the Pot 4 ball marked “UEFA Path A Winner.”

That instantly shifted the tone of the group, bringing in a far tougher opponent — whether it ends up being Italy, Wales, Bosnia-Herzegovina, or Northern Ireland.

Four points should still be enough to slip through as a third-place team, but this is undeniably a tougher break than many Canadians were hoping for.

Latest FIFA World Cup odds 2026

Country
Spain	+400
England	+600
France	+700
Brazil	+800
Argentina	+800
Portugal	+1100
Germany	+1200
Netherlands	+1600
Norway	+2500
Italy	+3300
Colombia	+3300
Belgium	+3300
Uruguay	+4000
USA	+5000
Mexico	+5000
Morocco	+6600
Ecuador	+6600
Croatia	+6600
Denmark	+8000
Japan	+8000
Switzerland	+8000
Sweden	+10000
Canada	+15000

Odds as of 12-5.

Quick reactions:

• The United States and Mexico are the biggest movers, shortening from +6600 to +5000. 
  
  
• France have drifted slightly from +650 to +700, given their tough group with Senegal and Norway. 
  
  
• Brazil has also drifted from +750 to +800 as they are in Group C with Morocco, Haiti, and Scotland. 
  
  
• Belgium's odds have shortened from +4000 to +300 thanks to a favorable draw. 

2026 World Cup Draw FAQs

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