New York Liberty vs Seattle Storm Prediction, Picks, and Odds: Loyd Carves Up NYL Defense

Breanna Stewart and the New York Liberty head back to her old stomping grounds in the Pacific Northwest as they take on the Seattle Storm on Sunday.

The Liberty are coming off a dispiriting loss to the invincible-looking Aces and will be looking for a strong performance to rebuild confidence as they continue to coalesce as a team.

The Storm will be looking to pull off an unlikely win against one of the W’s inner-circle contenders after a heartbreaking overtime loss against the Lynx on Thursday.

Our WNBA picks and predictions for Liberty vs. Storm believe the Gold Mamba should have another strong game against New York’s weaker perimeter defense.

Liberty vs Storm best odds

Liberty vs Storm picks and predictions

The New York Liberty’s game against the Aces was revealing, not only because it made plain how far away New York is from truly competing with the league’s best, but also because of an Achilles Heel that might make closing that gap impossible this season.

That weakness? Perimeter defense. It’s true, New York has Betnijah Laney, who — while technically a 6-foot forward — is comfortable guarding down and matching up with smaller guards like Jewell Loyd. That’s the theory anyway, but Loyd is a particularly tough cover for Laney. 

Jewell is a jitterbug on the court, one of the fastest, most agile live dribblers in the W, capable of hesitating and crossing up bigger wings like Laney on their way to the hoop. If Laney goes under, Loyd is pulling up, but whenever she goes over, Loyd was burning her on a drive into the paint.

She really had her way, and that was against the Liberty’s best chance to guard her. The last time the Liberty came to town way back on May 30, Jewell went 9-16 from the field for 26 points. She routinely made Laney look like she was playing on ice.

What’s more is that the Seattle Storm can use guard-to-guard screening action as they did many times in the previous matchup, and then one of Courtney Vandersloot or Sabrina Ionescu is in the primary action. Sloot gives a good enough effort and is a heady player, but at 34, she doesn’t have the foot speed to match Loyd, nor can the Liberty afford her to take too much punishment from screens. 

Sabrina is the real worry, however, as her screen navigation has become a serious problem for the Liberty at points this season (including against the Aces). She gives too much space, doesn’t close the gaps fast enough, or is prone to foul when she does.

Loyd will be licking her chops and hunting that matchup all game, and the Storm coaching staff know that Loyd going against the Liberty guards is their best bet for efficient offense when the alternative is trying to attack Breanna Stewart and Jonquel Jones at the rim, who are two of the five best defensive players in the W today.

As I’ve discussed with Loyd before, and this holds true of most high-usage guards like her, I strongly consider rest when thinking about whether to play or fade her points prop. In this case, she not only has a favorable matchup but she’s had two full days off to recharge the batteries.

My best bet: Jewell Loyd Over 24.5 points (-115 at FanDuel)

Liberty vs Storm spread and Over/Under analysis

The Liberty opened at 8.5-point road favorites for Sunday’s game, but a torrent of public money has pushed that line as high as -10.5 at some sportsbooks.

The Storm kept things close in the first and only game so far between these two clubs, with the Liberty ultimately winning 86-68 despite a much larger line. The Liberty have no doubt improved since then, but the Storm have as well.

So goes Jewell, so goes the Storm. They rely on her so much it should not be surprising that they perform so much better when she has additional rest. Seattle is 7-1 against the spread in their last eight games playing on two days of rest.

However, New York is going to be motivated to put a stamp on this game, not only for Stewie but because they just got blown out by their super-team rival. And the Liberty have made a habit of bouncing back after losses this season, going 4-1 ATS in their last five following a straight-up loss. The Storm are similarly scrappy themselves though, going 4-1 ATS following an ATS loss.

Like the spread, the total for this game has seen plenty of movement. It opened at 167.5 but has climbed all the way to 171 at the time of writing. That movement is certainly backed by the available trends, as the Over has cashed in five of the Storm’s last six games overall, and has gone 4-0 in their last four straight against teams with a winning record. It’s also 4-0 in New York’s last four games overall, as well as in their last four road games. 

But while the Storm and Liberty have both cashed a lot of Overs lately, it’s for totally different reasons. Seattle's offense was ranked worst in the W until recently and has contributed to some minuscule Totals that one scorching half by Loyd has often been enough to beat. 

The Liberty have, by contrast, seen their offense really start to click, as their flow from pass, to move, to shot has really hit its stride of late, climbing all the way to 107.6. That’s still second behind the Aces, but far and away clear of the third-place Sun.

The Liberty should have great success against this Storm defense, and because I believe in Jewel on the other end, I could easily see this hitting the Over at the original number, but I’m not inclined to bet such an inflated line at this juncture.

Liberty vs Storm betting trend to know

The Liberty are 4-1 ATS in their last five games following a straight-up loss. Find more WNBA betting trends for Liberty vs. Storm.

Liberty vs Storm game info

Liberty vs Storm key injuries

Liberty: No key injuries to report.
Storm: No key injuries to report.
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.

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