After a miserable Game 1 blowout loss, the Minnesota Lynx are in win-or-go-home territory as they face the Connecticut Sun this afternoon.
The Sun used a 21-3 run to take control of the series opener on Wednesday, cruising to a 90-60 win behind double-doubles from DeWanna Bonner and Alyssa Thomas.
Aside from a competitive first 10 minutes, there weren’t many positives for the Lynx from that lopsided contest. Kayla McBride scored 16 points, but Minnesota will need to shoot a lot better than its 35% mark to force a Game 3.
Read on for our free WNBA picks for Lynx vs. Sun on September 17.
Lynx vs Sun Game 2 best odds
Lynx vs Sun Game 2 picks and predictions
This first-round series felt like a mismatch heading into Game 1 — and Wednesday night just confirmed that the Connecticut Sun have all the answers when facing this Minnesota Lynx team. Connecticut has won four of the five meetings this year, with three of those wins coming by a double-digit margin.
The case for the hosts is strengthened by their 7-2-1 ATS record in their past 10 Sunday games and their 7-3 ATS mark in the last 10 contests against Minnesota. Meanwhile, the Lynx haven’t covered the spread in any of their last four games and they’re 1-6 ATS in their last seven contests against Eastern Conference opponents.
Those trends are compelling, and Thomas’ playmaking was a big factor in Game 1 as she piled up 10 assists. The Sun’s MVP candidate also went 7-for-15 from the field and there’s every chance that she stuffs the stat sheet again this afternoon.
While Connecticut likely won’t replicate its 53% shooting from beyond the arc, Tiffany Hayes and Rebecca Allen (a combined 9-of-12 on 3-pointers in midweek) enter Game 2 in a rhythm from deep.
The Sun have won nine of the past 10 showdowns against the Lynx, and I’m picking the hosts to cover this spread on the way to another comfortable victory today.
My best bet: Sun -8.5 (-130 at bet365)
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Lynx vs Sun Game 2 spread and Over/Under analysis
With Thomas and Bonner dominating the frontcourt matchup, Connecticut flexed its muscles in the series opener and I’m expecting more of the same from a Sun team that’s eyeing a deep playoff run.
As I’ve noted above, the hosts open as clear favorites, but you could certainly make the case for a double-digit spread given the way that Wednesday’s matchup unfolded. In desperation mode, I see Minnesota being more competitive here, especially with decorated head coach Cheryl Reeve calling the shots — but Connecticut’s talent edge is just too big for me to be dissuaded from laying the points.
Connecticut held Minnesota to just 28 points in the second half in midweek, with only McBride and Napheesa Collier putting up double-digit points overall, and the visitors knocked down just five of their 25 triples.
Game 1 hit the Under, but these teams have generally trended towards the Over, which is 4-1 in the Lynx’s last five Sunday games and 13-5 in the Sun’s last 18 games at Mohegan Sun Arena.
Minnesota’s Diamond Miller was plagued by foul trouble on Wednesday and if she has to spend time on the bench again today, that gives Thomas and Bonner an even bigger advantage in the paint — while also boosting the Over.
Of course, if this turns into another blowout, Connecticut will have one eye on the next round. That could mean another low-scoring fourth quarter with both teams’ reserves on the court.
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Lynx vs Sun betting trend to know
The Sun have had little trouble hitting their stride in the postseason in recent years — they’re 4-1 ATS in their past five Round 1 games. Find more WNBA betting trends for Lynx vs. Sun.
Lynx vs Sun Game 2 game info
|Location:||Mohegan Sun Arena, Montville, CT|
|Date:||Sunday, September 17, 2023|
|Tip-off:||1:00 p.m. ET|
Lynx vs Sun Game 2 key injuries
Lynx: Lindsay Allen G (Out), Jessica Shepard F (Out), Natalie Achonwa F (Out).
Sun: Bernadett Hatar C (Questionable), Brionna Jones F (Out).
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
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