The Minnesota Lynx fought off elimination in Game 2 against the Connecticut Sun and they’re back at Target Center tonight for this win-or-go-home series decider.
After losing Game 1 by a 30-point margin, the Lynx deserve a ton of credit for hitting back on Sunday with a gritty 82-75 road win, sparked by big performances from Kayla McBride and Napheesa Collier.
That upset turned the tables on the Sun, who faltered offensively at the weekend despite Alyssa Thomas and DeWanna Bonner combining for 50 points. Now, the WNBA odds favorites, which went 14-6 away from Mohegan Sun Arena this season, needs a road win of its own.
Take a closer look at tonight’s showdown with our free WNBA picks and predictions for Sun vs Lynx.
Sun vs Lynx Game 3 best odds
Sun vs Lynx Game 3 picks and predictions
Picking up the pieces after the Game 1 horror show was no easy feat for Minnesota, but head coach Cheryl Reeve made adjustments and the Lynx held the Sun to 44% shooting (and just seven triples) in Game 2.
But the biggest difference-maker was Kayla McBride, who played all 40 minutes and poured in 28 points on 10-for-18 shooting, including six 3-pointers. Minnesota comfortably won the backcourt battle on Sunday, and I expect McBride to lead the charge for the Lynx again here.
McBride was held to 16 points in the series opener and made just two of her nine shots from deep, but she had 20 or more points in three of her last four regular contests and will need to take over for stretches of Game 3 if Minnesota is going to progress to the next round. That should mean at least 15 field goal attempts tonight.
The Lynx guard has grown more comfortable with each matchup against Connecticut this year. After two rough games early in the season, McBride had an efficient 19-point outing against the Sun in late July — and, fast-forwarding to today’s clincher, she’s coming off a scoring clinic in Game 2.
The hosts can’t afford for McBride to be passive with their playoff lives on the line, and I’m picking another productive night — in close to the full 40 minutes — from the Minnesota sharpshooter.
My best bet: Kayla McBride Over 16.5 points (-110 at FanDuel)
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Sun vs Lynx Game 3 spread and Over/Under analysis
Despite getting their footing in this series on Sunday, the Lynx are home underdogs here, with the Sun entering as a 5-point favorite. That feels about right given the teams’ regular season records, including Minnesota’s 9-11 mark at Target Center.
But there’s a reason that this is the one first-round series that’s got to a Game 3 — the Lynx have two talented scorers who can keep pace with Thomas and Bonner. McBride and Collier will carry a heavy burden again for Minnesota, but the hosts can also take confidence from steady bench minutes in Game 2.
Still, the numbers point pretty emphatically to the Sun, who’ve covered the spread in their past four games after a loss and are 15-5-1 ATS in their last 21 contests playing on two days’ rest. Plus, it was only a week ago that Connecticut knocked down 16 3-pointers and left the Lynx in the dust in Game 1.
Though the Over has been a winner in Minnesota’s past five home games, I’m putting more faith in the trends tied to the Under, especially in the pressure cooker of tonight’s series-decider. Outside of McBride and Collier, no other Lynx player has had a game with double-digit points in this series.
The Under is 4-1 in the Sun’s last five Round 1 contests, and has hit in each of their last four Wednesday games. A line of around 157 suggests a similar scoreline to Game 2, and it would be no surprise to see the defenses on top.
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Sun vs Lynx betting trend to know
[Stat]. Find more WNBA betting trends for Sun vs. Lynx.
Sun vs Lynx Game 3 game info
|Location:||Target Center, Minneapolis, MN|
|Date:||Wednesday, September 20, 2023|
|Tip-off:||8:00 p.m. ET|
Sun vs Lynx Game 3 key injuries
Sun: Bernadett Hatar C (Questionable), Brionna Jones F (Out).
Lynx: Lindsay Allen G (Out), Jessica Shepard F (Out), Natalie Achonwa F (Out).
Find our latest WNBA injury reports.
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