The WNBA returns tonight from the FIBA break, and we’ll offer you our best WNBA moneyline predictions for all five games on tonight's card.
With such an abundance of heavy favorites, we’ll look to the combo markets and roll with a five-leg combo trading at 15.26x.
Read on for our WNBA picks for Sept. 17.
WNBA moneyline picks tonight: September 17
For help understanding Kalshi probabilities, see our odds calculator.
| Matchup |  Probability |
|---|---|
 Sun vs  Dream |
91% |
 Mystics vs  Sky |
52% |
 Sparks vs  Wings |
75% |
 Mercury vs  Fire |
56% |
 Aces vs  Storm |
82% |
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Expert WNBA moneyline picks: September 17
Sun vs Dream pick: Dream
The Atlanta Dream at 91% is a rock-solid combo play tonight.
Atlanta completely outclasses the Connecticut Sun across both units, posting a blistering +11.6 net rating over their last 10 games behind an elite 102.4 defensive rating.
That spells doom for a spiraling Sun squad that sits dead last in the league with a -15.6 net rating and an ice-cold 94.7 offensive rating.
With Kennedy Burke ruled out and Brittney Griner, Diamond Miller, and Leila Lacan all questionable, Connecticut’s league-worst bench (-7.7 net rating, 39.8% eFG%) will be exposed.
Atlanta rolls comfortably at home.
Mystics vs Sky pick: Mystics
The Washington Mystics at 53% is a solid standalone play tonight.
Sonia Citron’s absence will grab headlines, but the Chicago Sky lacks the offensive firepower to exploit Washington's turnover issues, scraping together just 13.4 points off giveaways and a miserable 99.4 offensive rating over their last 10 games.
That forces Chicago into the half-court set where Washington is an absolute fortress, scoring a league-best 44.4 points in the paint while surrendering just 35.6 inside.
Furthermore, Washington ends possessions instantly by hauling in a league-leading 79.5% defensive rebound rate. Against Chicago’s ice-cold shooting and depleted backcourt, Washington’s interior muscle will prevail.
Play the Mystics to 55% tonight.
Sparks vs Wings pick: Wings
The Dallas Wings at 75% adds another strong combo play tonight.
Dallas commands a massive interior edge, generating a sturdy 112.0 offensive rating over their last 10 games while holding opponents to just 34.8 points in the paint and 42.9% shooting.
That creates an impossible matchup for the Los Angeles Sparks, who have dropped seven of their last 10 while surrendering a league-worst 45.6 paint points and coughing up 21.5 points off giveaways nightly.
Even with Alanna Smith sidelined, Dallas’s second unit (53.6 PIE) comfortably outguns an undisciplined Sparks bench (-3.8 net rating) for the straight-up home win.
Mercury vs Fire pick: Mercury
The Phoenix Mercury at 56% is a sharp standalone play this evening.
While Kelsey Plum is sidelined and Kahleah Copper is questionable with a groin issue, the Portland Fire has had its entire core wiped out with Carla Leite, Bridget Carleton, Megan DiLeo, Sania Feagin, and Teja Oblak all confirmed out.
That strips the Fire of over 43 points per game and forces a bench with a -3.1 net rating and 9.6% turnover rate into starting roles they aren't prepared for.
Phoenix’s starters hold a decisive edge on both ends of the floor against a severely depleted Portland rotation that fouls constantly, securing the road victory.
Play the Mercury to 60%.
Aces vs Storm pick: Aces
The Las Vegas Aces at 82% is another strong combo leg.
The Seattle Storm's roster has been decimated by injuries, with interior anchor Ezi Magbegor and Katie Lou Samuelson ruled out alongside Jordan Horston and Jade Melbourne listed as questionable.
The Storm were already spiraling on a 2-8 skid, posting a league-worst 46.3% eFG% while surrendering 13.5 fast-break points and 22.8 opponent free-throw attempts nightly.
Facing a completely healthy, veteran-laden Las Vegas roster that protects the ball with a tidy 15.4% turnover rate, shorthanded Seattle lacks the firepower or rim protection to prevent an Aces blowout.
Today's WNBA moneyline combo
Dream moneyline
Mystics moneyline
Wings moneyline
Mercury moneyline
Aces moneyline
Back Atlanta over Connecticut’s league-worst offense (94.7 rating) and Dallas (75%) against Los Angeles’s leaky interior (45.6 paint points allowed).
Washington brings value with a league-best 44.4 interior points and 79.5% defensive rebounding against Chicago’s anemic 99.4 offensive rating.
Adding Las Vegas capitalizes on a depleted, cold-shooting Seattle squad (46.3% eFG%), and we'll close with Phoenix (56%) exploiting a Portland roster missing over 43 points per game to sweep the slate.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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