UFC 262 Burgos vs Barboza Picks: Featherweights Set for War

Shane Burgos enters this fight with a 13-2 record, including a 6-2 mark in the octagon, but is coming off a decision loss to Josh Emmett last June. Expect great boxing and combinations from the 30-year-old.

Rohit Ponnaiya - Betting Analyst at Covers.com
Rohit Ponnaiya • Betting Analyst
May 11, 2021 • 16:35 ET
UFC Fighter Shane Burgos
Photo By - USA TODAY Sports

Shane Burgos vs. Edson Barboza is on the main card for UFC 262 betting on May 15 at the Toyota Center in Houston, Texas.

This should be a banger between a pair of featherweights who love to strike. UFC betting lines have Burgos installed as a slim -118 favorite while Barboza comes back at -104.

Here are our best free Burgos vs. Barboza picks and predictions for UFC 262 on Saturday, May 15.

Burgos vs Barboza fight odds

Method of Victory Shane Burgos Edson Barboza
Win Outright -118 -104
Win by KO/TKO +420 +380
Win by Points +180 +260
Win by Submission +1,200 +2,600
Draw +5,000 +5,000

Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook as of May 10, 2021.

Burgos vs Barboza betting preview

"Hurricane" Burgos is the No. 9-ranked featherweight contender and will try to bounce back from a decision loss to Josh Emmett last June that earned Fight of the Night honors. The 30-year-old enters this fight with a 13-2 record, including a 6-2 mark in the octagon.

Burgos is a strong boxer with great movement and puts together nice combinations. He's also an above-average wrestler and can control in the clinch with strong knees.

Barboza is coming off a unanimous decision victory over Makwan Amirkhani in October where he had a 32-11 edge in significant strikes and knocked his opponent down twice. He's just 2-5 in his last seven fights, although all of those defeats came against highly-ranked fighters including Justin Gaethje and Khabib Nurmagomedov. 

The 34-year-old Brazilian has been competing in the UFC since 2010 and was a lightweight contender for years before making his featherweight debut last year in a close split-decision loss to Dan Ige. With a background in Muay Thai, Barboza is a versatile striker who utilizes devastating kicks to every level.

Burgos vs Barboza tale of the tape

Shane Burgos   Edson Barboza
30 Age 35
5-foot-11 Height 5-foot-11
145 lbs Weight 145 lbs
75 inches Reach 75 inches
13-2-0 (5 KO) Record 21-9-0 (12 KO)

Burgos vs Barboza UFC prediction and betting pick

PREDICTION: Burgos to win -118 - Both of these fighters rarely attempt takedowns and have strong takedown defense, so expect this bout to stay standing up.

Although Barboza has very dangerous kicks, his output has slowed down in recent fights and he has taken a lot of damage over the years. He's the more technical striker in this matchup and better at range but Burgos has insane output, landing a whopping 7.31 significant strikes per minute. 

Barboza has also struggled when fighting on the backfoot and Hurricane's pressure, boxing, and toughness should give him the slight edge in what will be an absolute war. 

Where can I bet on UFC odds?

Most online sportsbooks and casinos offer bets on UFC odds and props. While odds to win usually come out as soon as a fight is announced, prop bets become more readily available closer to an event. Check out the best sportsbooks available where you live and see what UFC bets they have available.

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Rohit Ponnaiya
Betting Analyst

With a background playing soccer, rugby, and boxing, combined with a journalism degree, it's little surprise that Rohit gravitated towards the world of sports betting. He specializes in betting on UFC and college basketball, two sports where the eyeball test can tell you a lot more about matchups than any analytics. Rohit has years of experience handicapping NFL and NBA games as well as niche betting markets such as politics and Oscar odds. He's also the resident CFL expert and formerly hosted "The Chez and Ro Show" with former CFL star Davis Sanchez. You can catch Rohit breaking down every UFC event with Joe Osborne on "P4P Picks" on the Covers YouTube channel and he also has regular appearances on "Before You Bet" with Joe. In addition, he's a regular guest on "By The Book" on the Monumental Sports Network and makes guest appearances on VSIN's "The Handle" and CBS Sports. Rohit primarily makes his bets at bet365, which offers a wide variety of prop markets, but also has accounts at several others so he can shop around for the best prices. For Rohit, bankroll management is key. He believes you should never bet what you can't afford to lose and maximize those few betting opportunities where books misprice a line.

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