The UFC returns to Abu Dhabi on Saturday, Oct. 24, for UFC 333, headlined by Alexander Volkanovski vs. Movsar Evloev.
Before the championship fights take center stage, three preliminary bouts offer plenty of value. My UFC 333 predictions and free betting picks break down each matchup, the fighters' paths to victory, and the betting markets worth watching.
The prelims begin at noon ET on Paramount+.
UFC 333 prelim picks and predictions
| Pick |  Probability |
|---|---|
| Abus Magomedov vs Cam Rowston | Prediction: Magomedov 55% Top pick: Fight Will Not Go the Distance 58% |
| Nikita Krylov vs Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev | Prediction: Yakhyaev 82% Top pick: Yakhyaev to Win in Round 1 54% |
| Azamat Murzakanov vs Dominick Reyes | Prediction: Murzakanov 67% Top pick: Murzakanov to Win in Round 1 29% |
Click on each fight to jump to the full analysis.
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UFC 333 prelim odds and picks
Abus Magomedov vs Cam Rowston fight odds
|
||
|---|---|---|
| Method of Victory | Magomedov | Rowston |
| To win outright | 54% | 47% |
| To win by KO/TKO | 21% | 20% |
| To win by decision | 21% | 18% |
| To win by submission | 15% | 13% |
| Total rounds | Over 2.5 5% | Under 2.5 95% |
Odds as of Oct. 23.
Magomedov has a questionable gas tank, but Rowston has a problem that could be even worse in this matchup: he can be painfully slow to get started.
You have to push Magomedov to make him gas out, and Rowston's tendency to start cold won't help him against someone who comes out looking to do serious damage. Rowston's grappling-heavy win over Robert Bryczek wasn't particularly impressive, given how poorly Bryczek handles himself on the mat, and I'm not convinced he can impose that approach against Magomedov.
Magomedov is dangerous early, and I don't see Rowston pushing him hard enough to expose his conditioning without putting himself in danger first. Rowston has the tools to make this competitive if he survives the early exchanges, but I expect Magomedov to dictate the pace from the opening bell and force him into uncomfortable situations.
I'm picking Magomedov to win, with the fight not going the distance as my preferred bet.
Prediction: Magomedov (Kalshi probability: 55%)
Top pick: Fight Will Not Go the Distance (Kalshi probability: 58%)
Nikita Krylov vs Abdul Rakhman Yakhyaev fight odds
|
||
|---|---|---|
| Method of Victory | Krylov | Yakhyaev |
| To win outright | 18% | 83% |
| To win by KO/TKO | 10% | 56% |
| To win by decision | 3% | 7% |
| To win by submission | 7% | 25% |
| Total rounds | Over 2.5 20% | Under 2.5 84% |
Odds as of Oct. 23.
Krylov has been stopped in three of his last five fights, including his most recent loss to former middleweight champion Robert Whittaker in July. His durability has become increasingly questionable, and that's a serious concern against an undefeated prospect like Yakhyaev.
The 25-year-old has finished all three UFC opponents in the opening round and has eight first-round finishes in 10 professional wins. This looks like a showcase fight for a young light heavyweight the UFC is eager to move up the rankings.
Ten of Krylov's 12 professional losses have come inside the distance, and Yakhyaev has shown he can finish opponents with either striking or grappling. Krylov is an experienced and dangerous finisher himself, but his recent inability to withstand punishment makes this a particularly difficult matchup.
I expect Yakhyaev to immediately pressure the veteran and capitalize on his declining durability. I pick Yakhyaev to win in Round 1.
Prediction: Yakhyaev (Kalshi probability: 82%)
Top pick: Yakhyaev to Win in Round 1 (Kalshi probability: 54%)
Azamat Murzakanov vs Dominick Reyes fight odds
|
||
|---|---|---|
| Method of Victory | Murzakanov | Reyes |
| To win outright | 66% | 36% |
| To win by KO/TKO | 53% | 24% |
| To win by decision | 0% | 10% |
| To win by submission | 2% | 3% |
| Total rounds | Over 2.5 37% | Under 2.5 68% |
Odds as of Oct. 23.
Reyes temporarily revived his career, but his resurgence hasn't convinced me he's ready for another dangerous striker. Reyes' three-fight winning streak ended with a knockout loss to Carlos Ulberg last September, but he rebounded with a split-decision win over Johnny Walker in April.
Murzakanov is exactly the kind of fighter who can give Reyes problems. He's fast, aggressive, and will look to initiate exchanges against someone who prefers to sit back and counter rather than take the initiative.
Murzakanov has scored 12 knockouts in his 16 professional victories, including 10 first-round finishes, and I expect his speed and aggression to overwhelm Reyes before he can establish any rhythm. Reyes remains a capable counterpuncher, but his reluctance to initiate exchanges could leave him constantly reacting to Murzakanov's offense.
I'm expecting Murzakanov to blitz the gun-shy Reyes and add another early finish to his record. Murzakanov to win in Round 1 is my pick.
Prediction: Murzakanov (Kalshi probability: 67%)
Top pick: Murzakanov to Win in Round 1 (Kalshi probability: 29%)
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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