Paddy Pimblett vs. Jordan Leavitt is scheduled for three rounds in the lightweight division as a featured attraction on tonight’s edition of UFC Fight Night in London. The stage is set for Pimblett to turn in an explosive performance, but standing in his way of delivering a hometown beatdown is the capable Leavitt.
Pimblett is generating a lot of momentum, and he’s a strong -245 favorite. The resilient Leavitt may have his work cut out for him, and UFC odds bettors recognize that, as he’s a +205 underdog.
Let’s check out the best bets with tonight’s Pimblett vs. Leavitt picks.
Pimblett vs Leavitt fight odds
Live odds courtesy of the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
Pimblett vs Leavitt method of victory odds
| Method of Victory | Paddy Pimblett | Jordan Leavitt |
|---|---|---|
| To win by KO/TKO | +240 | +1,300 |
| To win by Points | +380 | +500 |
| To win by Submission | +250 | +600 |
| Draw | +5,000 | +5,000 |
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook on July 21, 2022.
Pimblett vs Leavitt picks
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Pimblett vs Leavitt betting preview
Pimblett hasn’t just won his last four fights, he’s won his last four fights in the first round. The hard-punching Liverpool native has been mixing his damaging strikes with capable ground skills to create an effective offense that is a sight to behold. His latest victim, Rodrigo Vargas, saw how dangerous Pimblett could be as he recovered from some early troubles to choke him out last March.
“Paddy the Baddy” is landing 6.07 significant strikes per minute with 57% accuracy and is just as aggressive on the ground with 1.8 takedowns and submissions attempted per fight. A strong finisher, Pimblett’s average fight time clocks in at just over four minutes, as 11 of his 18 wins came in the first round.
Leavitt may have his work cut out for him in front of a hostile crowd, but he presents a stern challenge here. After a points loss to Claudio Puelles, Leavitt bounced back with a pair of wins including a rare inverted-triangle choke stoppage on Matt Sayles. Recently, Leavitt was in a tougher than expected bout against Trey Ogden, though managed to win by split decision.
A strong grappler and submission artist, Leavitt has six submission wins and a takedown-oriented offense. While not the striker his opponent is, Leavitt has been able to smother his foes and limit them to landing only 1.82 significant strikes against him. Like Pimblett, his takedown and submissions attempts per fight are high, scoring 1.8 takedowns and attempting 1.4 submissions per bout.
These two are evenly matched from a grappling standpoint. While both men will be wary of getting dragged down by the other, Pimblett may have a path to victory by being the busier striker. If Leavitt can manage to limit that output and force Pimblett down, then he has a chance of turning the hometown crowd sour with an upset.
Pimblett vs Leavitt tale of the tape
| Paddy Pimblett | Jordan Leavitt | |
|---|---|---|
| 27 | Age | 27 |
| 5-foot-10 | Height | 5-foot-9 |
| 155 lbs | Weight | 155 lbs |
| 73 inches | Reach | 71 inches |
| 18-3 (6 KO) | Record | 10-1 (1 KO) |
Pimblett vs Leavitt UFC prediction and best bet
Our prediction is compiled from the analysis of the fighters and is an indication of who we are leaning with to win this bout.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this fight or where the most value lies, and is where we would put some of our bankroll behind.
Prediction: Pimblett ML (-245)
Watching Pimblett get hurt and dropped by Vargas is one thing, but how he recovered and roared back is another. Leavitt is capable enough to trouble him on the ground, but his passive striking cost him a loss and almost doomed him in his last fight. If this fight doesn’t hit the ground with Leavitt in control, this could get ugly up top.
Pimblett’s striking versatility and legitimate power is going to run roughshod all over the methodical Leavitt, and “The Monkey King” may not want to prolong exchanges. If the weight of the moment or the roar of the crowd starts getting to Pimblett, then Leavitt might power through and get him in an advantageous position on the ground.
Too many things have to happen for Leavitt to win here. Pimblett is the better striker, arguably the better ground technician, and he’s coming in with all the momentum. Though he's a moderate favorite, we’re treating him like a lock.
Prediction: Pimblett moneyline (-245 at DraftKings)
Best bet: Pimblett by KO/TKO/DQ in Round 1 (+330)
The stars are aligning for Pimblett to score a big win under the spotlights. The limited offense from Leavitt should give him little resistance to establish his striking, and his physical strength and aggression are more than he can handle on the ground. It’s not that Pimblett fires shots with bad intentions — he just knows how to hurt people and put them out.
Not only do we think Pimblett’s winning streak will continue, but so too will his streak of opening-round stoppages. The call we like here is Pimblett taking care of business at Leavitt’s expense inside the first round.
Pick: Pimblett to win by KO/TKO/DQ in Round 1 (+330 at DraftKings)
