Nikita Krylov vs. Alexander Gustafsson is scheduled for 3 rounds in the light heavyweight division as a featured attraction on tonight’s UFC Fight Night card in London.
Krylov and Gustafsson are at the crossroads, and only one light heavyweight banger will carry on to bigger things, while the other will have to deal with a career-threatening defeat. UFC odds currently have Krylov as a -190 favorite. Gustafsson is ending a two-year layoff but isn’t favored to end his streak of defeats as a +160 underdog.
Here are our free UFC betting picks and predictions for Krylov vs. Gustafsson on July 23.
Krylov vs Gustafsson fight odds
Live odds courtesy of the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
Krylov vs Gustafsson method of victory odds
| Method of Victory | Nikita Krylov | Alexander Gustafsson |
|---|---|---|
| To win by KO/TKO | +240 | +400 |
| To win by Points | +275 | +400 |
| To win by Submission | +330 | +1,400 |
| Draw | +5,000 | +5,000 |
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook on July 20, 2022.
Krylov vs Gustafsson picks
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Krylov vs Gustafsson betting preview
Neither fighter has had much luck lately when it comes to getting a win, but Krylov has been active over the last two years. Krylov was on the wrong end of a Paul Craig triangle choke last March, dropping to 2-3 in his last five fights.
To his credit, the other losses to Magomed Ankalaev and Glover Teixeira were competitive; he was just outclassed by true top-tier talent. Krylov is a finisher in every sense of the word, with all but one of his 27 victories coming by some sort of finish.
A fighter who is just as vicious with his ground game as he is with strikes, the Ukrainian lands 4.35 significant strikes per minute and attempts 1.3 submission attempts per fight. Krylov's physical style also keeps his incoming strike count low as he only absorbs 2.44 strikes in return.
The luster of his legendary wars against Jon Jones and Daniel Cormier now dulled to black, Gustafsson ends a two-year exile and hopes to snap a three-fight skid. The powerful Swede has gone 3-6 going back a full decade and was visibly slowing down before he entered a short retirement in 2019.
Gustafsson ended that retirement with an ill-advised move to heavyweight one year later, losing to Fabricio Werdum by submission. He was a rugged striker at his peak, scoring 11 stoppages in 17 wins. A talented boxer whose footwork worked to set up both his striking offense and defense, “The Mauler” fires punches in bunches and can defend well on the ground.
He lands 4.02 significant strikes per minute and stuffs 83% of takedown attempts against him. All signs indicate that this will be a striking battle, and while Gustafsson’s height and reach advantage should make him a favorite, the wear and tear on the veteran is hard to ignore.
Krylov needs to rush his opponent down right away, preventing him from shaking off the rust and limiting his mobility. This could come down to who lands their biggest shots first, but so much more is about what Gustafsson still has left in the tank.
Krylov vs Gustafsson tale of the tape
| Nikita Krylov | Alexander Gustafsson | |
|---|---|---|
| 30 | Age | 35 |
| 6-foot-3 | Height | 6-foot-4 |
| 205 lbs | Weight | 240 lbs |
| 77.5 inches | Reach | 79 inches |
| 27-9 (11 KO) | Record | 18-7 (11 KO) |
Krylov vs Gustafsson UFC prediction and best bet
Our prediction is compiled from the analysis of the fighters and is an indication of who we are leaning with to win this bout.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this fight or where the most value lies, and is where we would put some of our bankroll behind.
Prediction: Krylov ML
Time wasn’t on Gustafsson’s side when he tried walking away in 2019. Krylov is a good opponent for him because he’s wildly inconsistent, but this version of Gustafsson will be slower to the trigger with ring rust to shake off.
These two will exchange early, and Krylov should beat Gustafsson to the punch. This will be a conventional striking battle as both fighters can wrestle well, but Krylov’s stalking style will test the exiled light heavyweight contender’s endurance while his fists check his chin.
Had this fight happened prior to Gustafsson’s decline and the layoff, this would have been an easy win for him. But in 2022, Krylov should send Gustafsson off with another loss and yet another reminder that the retirement home is a lot more friendly than the octagon.
We’re taking Krylov to pull this one off.
Prediction: Krylov moneyline (-200 at DraftKings)
Best bet: Krylov to win by KO/TKO/DQ
Gustafsson has been finished in four of his last five losses and is coming off a long layoff. As inconsistent Krylov has been, he’s still a tough out and hasn’t looked bad in his losses.
Gustafsson also has had trouble defying the odds as an underdog, going 0-4 when he’s listed at plus money. With the circumstances being what they are, this is the best time for Krylov to score an emphatic win. These two will inevitably let their hands go, and we’re betting on the active fighter with more tread on his tires to show out with a big win.
We’re liking Krylov to take the fight to Gustafsson early and finish him by KO.
Pick: Krylov to win by KO/TKO/DQ (+240 at DraftKings)
