Paul Craig vs. Volkan Oezdemir is scheduled for three rounds in the light heavyweight division as a featured attraction at tonight's UFC Fight Night in London. Craig is putting his extended winning streak on the line against proven title challenger Oezdemir, who is trying to rebound after losing his last two fights.
Bettors are hoping it’s time for “No Time” to snap his streak as he is a slight UFC odds favorite at -155. Craig, winner of his last five fights, is a +135 underdog but is as live as they come ahead of this captivating clash.
Let's check out tonight's Craig vs. Oezdemir picks and predictions.
Craig vs Oezdemir fight odds
Live odds courtesy of the Covers Line, an average comprised of odds from multiple sportsbooks.
Craig vs Oezdemir method of victory odds
| Method of Victory | Paul Craig | Volkan Oezdemir |
|---|---|---|
| To win by KO/TKO | +1,300 | +145 |
| To win by Points | +750 | +380 |
| To win by Submission | +220 | +2,000 |
| Draw | +5,000 | +5,000 |
Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook on July 21, 2022.
Craig vs Oezdemir picks
Click on each prediction to jump to the full analysis.
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Craig vs Oezdemir betting preview
The odds for this fight aren’t reflecting how good Craig has looked in recent fights. The 34-year-old has fought six times in the last three years going 5-0-1 in that stretch with each win being a finish. It took him all but a minute to nab Nikita Krylov in a triangle choke last March, and was even more impressive in his fight before that, stopping the highly regarded Jamahal Hill via strikes.
13 of his 16 wins have come by submission, but Craig has been just as deadly with his strikes in recent performances. Overall, the “Bearjew” lives up to his name by working behind a mauling offense that emphasizes takedowns and submissions. He averages 2.13 takedowns and two submission attempts per fight with his average bout length at 7:35.
Oezdemir rose to prominence when he entered the UFC in 2017, but saw his fortunes forever changed for the worst after then-champion Daniel Cormier blasted him out. Since Cormier, he’s gone 2-4 with his most recent setback being against Magomed Ankalev last October. Desperate to retain his 2017 form, the Swiss kickboxing specialist hopes to bounce back at Craig’s expense.
“No Time” works behind his big strikes and can keep the fight upright with his strong takedown defense. With 12 stoppages in 17 wins, Oezdemir can make life hard for opponents trying to wrestle him to the ground with an 80% takedown defense rate, and lands 4.75 significant strikes per minute. Though he’s fallen on hard times, Craig may not be as complex of a task compared to Ankalev or current champion Jiri Prochazka, who savaged him inside two rounds.
If Craig is to pull off the upset, he’ll have to charge forward and rely on his unworldly ability to absorb shots to set up his ground game. Oezdemir is capable of landing some devastating blows, but he needs to rediscover his confidence as Craig is not going to give him any breathing room. This fight hinges on Oezdemir’s ability to keep Craig on the outside.
Craig vs Oezdemir tale of the tape
| Paul Craig | Volkan Oezdemir | |
|---|---|---|
| 34 | Age | 32 |
| 6-foot-4 | Height | 6-foot-1 |
| 205 lbs | Weight | 205 lbs |
| 76 inches | Reach | 75 inches |
| 16-4-1 (3 KO) | Record | 17-6 (12 KO) |
Craig vs Oezdemir UFC prediction and best bet
Our prediction is compiled from the analysis of the fighters and is an indication of who we are leaning with to win this bout.
Our best bet is the play that we like the most for this fight or where the most value lies, and is where we would put some of our bankroll behind.
Prediction: Pick
It’s always a risk putting a bet on Craig due to his propensity for punishment. For better or worse, Craig has surged with his recent performances and is a nightmare when he closes the distance. Oezdemir is inching further away from his peak, though he remains more accomplished than the “Bear Jew.”
Craig’s confidence is surging, and a win here will make his case as a potential title challenger. Prozchaka may not have much to work with as champion, but Craig extending his streak suddenly makes him viable. Oezdemir is rightfully favored, but we can’t ignore that Craig might be hitting his stride late in his career.
Like most of Craig’s fights, it’ll look ugly for him until it doesn’t. He should persevere and find the opportunities he’ll need to control the fight from the ground and keep Oezdemir in his wheelhouse. We’re liking Craig as the upset of the night.
Prediction: Craig to win (+135 at DraftKings)
Best bet: Pick
Oezdemir has been taken down in three of his last five fights, but managed to make it into the later rounds. Craig’s recent run has seen an improvement on his striking game, but he’ll certainly look to take Oezdemir on the ground where a submission attempt is sure to follow.
Craig is a +135 underdog, and that line is moving closer to even by the day. The best bet here is banking on the resolve of both men, and that manifests itself as betting on the fight lasting over 2.5 rounds. With this fight looking like a distance fight, a +180 bet on the Over is the way to go here.
Pick: Over 2.5 Rounds (+180 at DraftKings)
