Ciryl Gane vs. Josh Hokit headlines Saturday's UFC 334 card at Madison Square Garden in New York. Gane (67%) makes his first defense of the undisputed heavyweight championship against undefeated challenger Hokit, whose rapid rise and growing popularity have earned him a title opportunity.
My Ciryl Gane vs. Josh Hokit predictions and UFC picks favor the champion, who has significant advantages in speed, range, technical striking, and experience against elite heavyweight competition.
Check out the latest UFC odds for Saturday's heavyweight showdown.
Ciryl Gane vs Josh Hokit predictions for UFC 334
| Market | Pick |
|---|---|
| Who will win | Ciryl Gane (67%) |
| Top pick | Over 4.5 rounds (36%) |
| Prop | Gane by decision (18%) |
| Combo | 3.47x |
Who will win Ciryl Gane vs Josh Hokit: Gane moneyline
Gane is my pick at 67%.
Hokit has been fast-tracked into title contention, but narrowly beating Curtis Blaydes and stopping a badly faded Derrick Lewis hardly proves he's ready for the heavyweight elite. His wrestling credentials are legitimate, but he hasn't demonstrated that he can consistently impose them against top-level opposition.
Gane knows exactly what Hokit wants to do, and his superior speed, range, and technical striking should expose the challenger's limitations.
Ciryl Gane vs Josh Hokit top pick: Over 4.5 rounds
This one will go to the scorecards. I'm playing this to 40%.
Hokit has the wrestling credentials to make this interesting, but his offensive grappling hasn't been nearly as effective against better competition as his statistics suggest. Gane has previously struggled against elite wrestlers, but Hokit isn't bringing anything unexpected into this fight. The champion knows he'll need to maintain distance and defend takedowns, and he has the footwork and striking discipline to do both.
Hokit is tough enough to withstand Gane's offense, but I expect the champion to control the exchanges without taking unnecessary risks and win a comfortable decision.
COVERS INTEL: Six of Hokit's nine recorded takedowns came in his Contender Series appearance, while he failed to record a single takedown against Curtis Blaydes.Ciryl Gane vs Josh Hokit prop: Gane to Win by Decision
Gane by decision is my preferred prop at 20% or better.
Hokit has never been finished, and I don't expect Gane to take unnecessary chances against an aggressive opponent. The champion has significant advantages in reach, footwork, and technical striking, which should allow him to dictate the exchanges.
Unless Hokit can establish sustained wrestling pressure, I expect Gane to pick him apart over five rounds and retain his championship on the scorecards.
Ciryl Gane vs Josh Hokit combo
This combo backs Gane to expose the difference between Hokit's wrestling credentials and his ability to impose that wrestling against elite competition.
Hokit couldn't take Blaydes down and managed just two takedowns against an aging and disinterested Lewis, hardly suggesting he'll dominate the champion on the mat. Hokit should have the durability to survive, but I expect Gane to control the exchanges, gradually separate himself and retain his title by decision.
Ciryl Gane vs Josh Hokit odds
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
| Method of Victory | Ciryl Gane | Josh Hokit |
|---|---|---|
| To win outright | 63% | 38% |
| To win by KO/TKO | 39% | 19% |
| To win by decision | 16% | 11% |
| To win by submission | 5% | 7% |
| Fight goes the distance | Yes 32% |
No N/A |
Odds as of 11-13.
Gane is a 67% favorite, with the market identifying his 39% knockout probability as his most likely path to victory. The fight going the distance is priced at just 32%, but Gane by decision is my preferred method-of-victory side. Hokit has demonstrated considerable toughness, and I expect Gane's technical superiority to carry him through five rounds rather than produce another stoppage.
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Ciryl Gane vs Josh Hokit tale of the tape
| Ciryl Gane | Josh Hokit | |
|---|---|---|
| 36 | Age | 28 |
| 6-foot-4 | Height | 6-foot-1 |
| Heavyweight (champion) | Weight Class | Heavyweight |
| 81 inches | Reach | 73.5 inches |
| 14-2 (1 NC) | Record | 10-0 |
| 7 | Wins by KO | 6 |
| 3 | Wins by submission | 3 |
Gane holds substantial physical advantages, standing three inches taller with a 7.5-inch reach advantage. The champion also brings considerably more experience against elite heavyweights, while Hokit is making his first title appearance after just four UFC victories.
Hokit is eight years younger and brings legitimate wrestling credentials, but Gane's superior striking defense, footwork, and experience should allow him to control the fight at range.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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