Kayla Harrison is a 62% favorite against Amanda Nunes on Saturday's UFC 334 card at Madison Square Garden in New York, according to UFC odds.
My Kayla Harrington vs. Amanda Nunes predictions and free betting picks for this championship showdown on Nov. 15 back the challenger to pull off the upset win in her first fight since 2023.
Kayla Harrison vs Amanda Nunes predictions for UFC 334
| Market | Pick |
|---|---|
| Who will win | Amanda Nunes |
| Top pick | Amanda Nunes to win |
| Prop | Amanda Nunes by decision |
| Combo | 2.32x |
Who will win Kayla Harrison vs Amanda Nunes: Nunes
Amanda Nunes is my pick to 42%.
Kayla Harrison is a frightening grappler, but her striking remains rudimentary compared to that of the former two-division champion.
Nunes has the defensive wrestling, Brazilian jiu-jitsu background, and superior striking to make the champion uncomfortable. Her lengthy retirement is concerning, but Harrison is also returning from a significant layoff following neck surgery.
If Nunes still has something left in the tank, I expect her experience and deeper offensive arsenal to carry her to an upset.
Kayla Harrison vs Amanda Nunes top pick: Nunes to win
Harrison has overwhelmed opponents with her wrestling and top control, but Larissa Pacheco demonstrated she can be beaten when an opponent survives those exchanges and makes her pay on the feet.
Nunes is a considerably more accomplished striker and owns 82% takedown defense, giving her the tools to frustrate Harrison's preferred approach.
The two formerly trained together, so neither should be unfamiliar with the other's strengths. Nunes hasn't competed since 2023, but Harrison has been sidelined since June 2025.
I'm trusting the former champion's experience, defensive grappling, and superior striking to overcome Harrison's physicality.
COVERS INTEL: Nunes has an 82% takedown-defense rate, while 53% of Harrison's significant strikes in the UFC have come from the ground.Kayla Harrison vs Amanda Nunes prop: Nunes by decision
The champ is a durable, physically imposing grappler who won't be easily overwhelmed, but Nunes has the defensive skills to survive tough exchanges and get back to her feet.
I expect the challenger to favor her superior striking rather than unnecessarily chase a finish after such a long layoff. If she can consistently frustrate Harrison's wrestling, her cleaner punches and experience should carry her to a competitive decision.
Kayla Harrison vs Amanda Nunes combo
- Amanda Nunes moneyline
- Amanda Nunes to win inside the distance - No
Harrison is a tremendous grappler, but her striking remains a significant weakness against someone with Nunes' experience and offensive versatility.
Nunes has the defensive wrestling to make Harrison work for every takedown, and her superior striking should give her opportunities to land the cleaner, more meaningful shots.
The champs' strength and conditioning will make this competitive, but I'm trusting Nunes to survive the grappling exchanges, establish her offense, and win enough rounds to take the title.
Kayla Harrison vs Amanda Nunes odds
For help understanding probabilities, see our odds calculator.
| Method of Victory | Kayla Harrison | Amanda Nunes |
|---|---|---|
| To win outright | 62% | 39% |
| To win by KO/TKO | 9% | 23% |
| To win by decision | 20% | 13% |
| To win by submission | 28% | 3% |
| Fight to go the distance | Yes 37% |
No 63% |
Odds as of 11-13.
Nunes is the underdog, but her skillset makes her a valuable one at that. Nunes only has four submission victories, which is why her odds to win are priced so low. A decision win (13%) holds the most value.
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Kayla Harrison vs Amanda Nunes tale of the tape
| Kayla Harrison | Amanda Nunes | |
|---|---|---|
| 36 | Age | 38 |
| 5-foot-8 | Height | 5-foot-8 |
| Bantamweight | Weight Class | Bantamweight |
| 66 inches | Reach | 69 inches |
| 19-1 | Record | 23-5 |
| 6 | Wins by KO | 13 |
| 8 | Wins by submission | 4 |
Harrison and Nunes are identical in height, but Nunes holds a three-inch reach advantage and considerably more experience against elite UFC competition.
Nunes has recorded 13 knockouts in 23 victories compared to Harrison's six in 19 wins, while Harrison owns the stronger submission résumé. Nunes is two years older and returning from retirement, but her superior striking and defensive grappling should give her the tools to challenge the champion.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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