UFC 323 Predictions, Picks & Best Bets for Tonight's Main Card

Alexandre Pantoja vs Joshua Van 

Rohit Ponnaiya

Best bet: Alexandre Pantoja moneyline
-240 at BET99

Van is a high-volume striker who throws a variety of punches with power and precision. That said, Pantoja is also a good striker with dangerous leg kicks and a granite chin. He got the better of Kara-France in the stand-up, which was impressive against a Muay Thai specialist.

Although Van boasts an 81% takedown defense, he was taken down four times by Rei Tsuruya earlier this year. Pantoja is a better wrestler than Tsuruya, and he was able to land three takedowns on Kara-France, despite the Kiwi also boasting a takedown defense above 80% 

This title fight will be a bit too much and too soon for the 24-year-old challenger.

Merab Dvalishvili vs Petr Yan 

Rohit Ponnaiya

Best bet: Dvalishvili moneyline
-425 at BET99

Merab " The Machine" Dvalishvili is on a 14-fight win streak and is fresh off a unanimous decision win against Cory Sandhagen for his third title defense.

Petr Yan is the former bantamweight champ and has won three in a row after losing a lopsided decision to Dvalishvili in 2023.

Yan is a well-rounded fighter who combines highly technical boxing with great footwork and strong wrestling. That said, his wrestling is nowhere near the same level as Dvalishvili, who is relentless with pressure and chains takedowns.

The Georgian has shattered the UFC record for career takedowns (117) and took Yan down 11 times on an incredible 49 attempts in their previous clash. Merab was also busier in the standup during that bout, boasting a 129-66 edge in significant strikes at distance.

Yan has a tendency to start slow and often gives away the first round due to a lack of activity. He usually gets better as the fight goes on, but that won't be the case against Merab, who has some of the best cardio in UFC history.

Yan doesn't have the power to put away Dvalishvili early, and the champ will never let Yan back in the fight once he gets him on the back foot and wins rounds. 

Henry Cejudo vs Payton Talbott

Danny Howard

Best bet: Talbott moneyline
-275 at BET99

For Cejudo to win this fight and pump some life back into his career, he’ll need to rely on that wrestling talent and veteran skill set and keep the fight at a measured pace.

Talbott is two fights removed from the shocking loss to Barcelos and has a chance to add a future Hall of Famer to his resume. If Talbott is to win, he'll do it with his striking and keeping the slowing Cejudo on the outside, and he's shown the tools to do that.

He's landing 6.05 significant strikes per minute and will have a six-inch advantage in height and reach, and he'll need to press those physical advantages and avoid the mat at all costs.

He's been taken down 11 times in his last two fights alone, and while he managed to control the fight and scramble to his feet against Felipe Lima last time out, the Barcelos loss isn't far removed from memory, and the ground is where Cejudo will make his last stand. 

Talbott has been taken down 11 times in his last two fights, and Cejudo knows that the mat is his only real path in a three-round bout. All Talbott needs to do is pressure Cejudo with his activity and not give up the massive physical advantages he possesses.

I don't see how this version of Cejudo gets the takedowns in or can outslick Talbott on his feet to squeak past the finishing line. Youth will be served, and I'm taking Talbott.

Brandon Moreno vs Tatsuro Taira

Danny Howard

Best bet: Moreno moneyline
+100 at BET99

Moreno has bounced back from a pair of split-decision losses to champion Alexandre Pantoja and Brandon Royval, which oddsmakers are holding against him more than they should.

We’ve seen Moreno display excellent grappling defense against the true elite of the division, and that’s not a good thing for Taira. He’s a solid boxer with a sharp jab and good combination striking, and his conditioning is still top tier for the division and hasn’t been finished in his UFC career.

He’s been in some brutal wars over the better part of the last five years, and that kind of run could mean there’s less in the tank than his recent performances could suggest. 

Taira is dangerous early, but he doesn’t carry that same threat after the first round. Moreno’s experience, superior striking, and underrated ground defense should be enough to give Taira another lesson, as the young star in the making will get back in line. Moreno is the pick. 

Yan Blachowicz vs Bogdan Guskov

Chris Faria

Best bet: Blachowicz moneyline
-135 at BET99

Jan Blachowicz is 42 years of age and nearing the end of his career, but a 1-3-1 mark over his last five bouts underscores the level of competition he’s faced.

Carlos Ulberg, Alex Pereira, and Magomed Ankalaev make up his last three fights — all current champions, former champions, or fighters firmly in the discussion.

Bogdan Guskov, who hits back at +105, is certainly a serious threat as he looks to pick up his fifth straight win in the UFC, but the difference in experience and pedigree between the two men is astronomical.

Blachowicz may not have the same speed and power as he did back in the day, but he will be the more technically sound fighter against Guskov, as well as the better grappler. The 42-year-old has only been finished twice in the past 14 years, so I’m not too worried about his chin.

+669 parlay

Tony Sartori

Mansur Abdul-Malik by KO/TKO or DQ

Alexandre Pantoja moneyline

Petr Yan moneyline