The Conor McGregor vs. Max Holloway odds for their rematch at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas on Saturday, July 11, are on the move less than two weeks out from the welterweight main event.
McGregor returns to the Octagon when he steps in against Holloway in the main event for UFC 329. It's a strong fight card that also features Paddy Pimblett vs. Benoit Saint-Denis.
After a lengthy layoff, the early UFC odds pegged the 37-year-old McGregor as a considerable underdog. Those odds are shifting (quickly) in his favor, as he's down to +180 odds to win, with Holloway a -240 betting favorite.
Conor McGregor vs Max Holloway odds
 |
||
|---|---|---|
| Market | Max Holloway | Conor McGregor |
| To win outright | -240 | +180 |
| 2.5 rounds | Over: -115 | Under: -115 |
Odds as of 6-23.
Max Holloway and Conor McGregor will headline UFC 329 on Saturday, July 11.
The pair last faced off on August 17, 2013, as part of the preliminary card ahead of a UFC Fight Night main-event bout between Chael Sonnen and Mauricio Rua. That is to say, a lot has changed.
McGregor won by unanimous decision, marking Holloway's third loss in his first 10 UFC fights. Meanwhile, it marked McGregor's 10th consecutive victory, a streak that would ultimately extend to 15 before losing to Nate Diaz in 2016 — a loss he would avenge months later.
"Notorious" last stepped foot in the Octagon in 2021, fighting Dustin Poirier in losing efforts in UFC 257 and UFC 264. He was expected to return in 2024 against Michael Chandler, in a blow-off from The Ultimate Fighter 31, where both served as opposing coaches, but a broken toe was cited as the reason for its ultimate cancellation.
Holloway has been more active, appearing in eight UFC fights since McGregor's last, going 5-3 in that stretch. Most recently, Holloway lost by unanimous decision to Charles Oliveira at UFC 326 on March 7, 2026.
Nevertheless, McGregor's rust and extended absence related to injuries, various legal issues, and a lengthy suspension for missing drug tests are all likely mitigating factors when books are projecting the odds for this fight.
Holloway hasn't been a world-beater, but he's been present, and he is being given a substantial edge to get his win back from McGregor nearly 13 years later.
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Conor McGregor vs Max Holloway odds movement
Max Holloway opened at -400 on the moneyline against Conor McGregor about a month ago. As of Tuesday, June 23, those odds have lengthened to -240, while McGregor is down to +180 for the outright upset. A winning $10 bet on McGregor would return a profit of $18.
This was often the case during McGregor's prime — and is now the case with boxer/influencer Jake Paul. The heavy public favorite draws the vast majority of the betting action to help shorten their odds — and raise the odds for their opponent.
I'd continue to wait out this market, and would expect to get the best odds on Holloway to win come fight night.
We’re now inside of two weeks for Conor McGregor vs Max Holloway at UFC 329 and A LOT of money is coming in on McGregor! pic.twitter.com/VEL7SEhZb6
— Joe Osborne (@JTFOz) June 29, 2026
What sportsbooks are saying about Conor McGregor vs Max Holloway
Alex Rella, the Trading Manager at BetMGM, helped to explain why Max Holloway is the sizable favorite.
"Conor McGregor in his prime was truly awesome, but he hasn't fought since 2021.
Who knows what version of Conor is going to show up? On the other hand, Max Holloway has never stopped being an elite fighter.
There are few fighters in the world that can beat Max in a straight-up striking battle." - Alex Rella, Trading Manager, BetMGM
Who will win Conor McGregor vs Max Holloway?
"Conor McGregor is 1-3 in his last four UFC fights. The last time we saw him, his leg literally snapped in half in a fight he was on his way to losing against Dustin Poirier.
While envisioning an upset win over Max Holloway is fun, it’s also delusional. Coming off a five-year layoff, we shouldn’t expect an improved version of McGregor at 37 years old. He won’t be able to compete with the striking volume and pace of Holloway, who’s a year removed from a one-sided victory over Poirier.
The longer the fight goes, the worse McGregor will look. Expect a Holloway TKO victory." - via Joe Osborne
Max Holloway is an awful opponent for Conor McGregor’s return fight. pic.twitter.com/xbtFVxWcGO
— Joe Osborne (@JTFOz) May 19, 2026
Conor McGregor vs Max Holloway tale of the tape
| Holloway | McGregor | |
|---|---|---|
| 34 | Age | 37 |
| 5-foot-11 | Height | 5-foot-8 |
| Welterweight | Weight Class | Welterweight |
| 69 inches | Reach | 74 inches |
| 27-9 | Record | 22-6 |
| 12 | Wins by KO | 19 |
| 2 | Wins by submission | 1 |
Conor McGregor vs Max Holloway FAQ
Who's favored to win Conor McGregor vs Max Holloway 2?
Max Holloway is the -240 moneyline favorite to beat Conor McGregor in their rematch. Those odds represent an implied win probability of 70.59%.
When is Conor McGregor vs Max Holloway 2?
Conor McGregor and Max Holloway will meet in the main event of UFC 329 on Saturday, July 11.
Where is Conor McGregor vs Max Holloway 2?
UFC 329 — headlined by McGregor vs. Holloway — will be fought at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas.
How to watch Conor McGregor vs Max Holloway 2
Watch McGregor vs. Holloway and the whole UFC 329 card on Paramount+.
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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