UFC 323 Henry Cejudo vs Payton Talbott Predictions, Picks & Odds

Henry Cejudo might be making his last stand as the former Olympian and world champion faces off against Payton Talbott, hoping to snap a three-fight losing streak in one of our featured attractions on the UFC 323 undercard.

UFC odds have Talbott as a -275 favorite while Cejudo is a +210 underdog. Here are my free Cejudo vs. Talbott predictions from Las Vegas on December 6.

Cejudo vs Talbott prediction and best bet

• My fight prediction: Talbott moneyline (-260 at BET99)
  
  
• My best bet: Talbott by decision (+105 at BET99)

Fight analysis
Henry Cejudo is a former Olympic gold medalist, two-division UFC champion, and one of the sharpest tacticians to ever compete in the UFC.

He’s also 0-3 since returning from his contract standoff, now 39 years old, and firmly in the “past-prime” stage and fading fast. He meets Payton Talbott at the crossroads, with one fighter fighting to stay relevant, and the other fighting to validate his credentials.

Cejudo’s recent efforts against Aljamain Sterling and Merab Dvalishvili were admirable, considering the layoffs and quality of those two. Still, the loss to Song Yadong underscores the reality of his situation.

The chain wrestling that was the foundation of his offense no longer overwhelms opponents, his speed is diminished, and his offensive triggers aren’t firing with the same explosiveness.

His defense, both in striking and wrestling, remains serviceable, but that’s because he can’t pull the trigger or sustain a full five-minute pace anymore.

For Cejudo to win this fight and pump some life back into his career, he’ll need to rely on that wrestling talent and veteran skill set and keep the fight at a measured pace.

Talbott is two fights removed from the shocking loss to Barcelos and has a chance to add a future Hall of Famer to his resume. If Talbott is to win, he'll do it with his striking and keeping the slowing Cejudo on the outside, and he's shown the tools to do that.

He's landing 6.05 significant strikes per minute and will have a six-inch advantage in height and reach, and he'll need to press those physical advantages and avoid the mat at all costs.

He's been taken down 11 times in his last two fights alone, and while he managed to control the fight and scramble to his feet against Felipe Lima last time out, the Barcelos loss isn't far removed from memory, and the ground is where Cejudo will make his last stand. 

Talbott has been taken down 11 times in his last two fights, and Cejudo knows that the mat is his only real path in a three-round bout. All Talbott needs to do is pressure Cejudo with his activity and not give up the massive physical advantages he possesses.

I don't see how this version of Cejudo gets the takedowns in or can outslick Talbott on his feet to squeak past the finishing line. Youth will be served, and I'm taking Talbott.

Best bet analysis
Cejudo remains a defensively mindful fighter and knows how to handle himself in the octagon if things aren't going his way.

He won't match Talbott's striking output, but also won't absorb the kind of punishment that'll result in a stoppage, as Talbott is not a proven finisher.

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Henry Cejudo vs Payton Talbott odds

Method of Victory	Cejudo	Talbott
To win outright	+205	-270
To win by KO/TKO	+790	+225
To win by decision	+350	+105
To win by submission	+2700	+3300
Draw	+5000	+5000

Odds as of 12-6.

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Henry Cejudo vs Payton Talbott tale of the tape

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