UFC 323 Brandon Moreno vs Tatsuro Taira Predictions, Picks & Odds

Brandon Moreno and Tatsuro Taira are closing in on a flyweight title shot, and there will be little to prevent the winner from getting it as these two collide on the UFC 323 undercard.

Taira is a -130 favorite while Moreno is a +105 underdog in the UFC odds. Here are my Moreno vs. Taira predictions and free betting picks from Las Vegas.

Moreno vs Taira prediction and best bet

• My fight prediction: Moreno moneyline (+100 at BET99)
  
  
• My best bet: Moreno by decision (+160 at BET99)

Fight analysis
There is a lot to like about the potential of Tatsuro Taira, so much so that he’s remained a favorite against former champion Brandon Moreno.

Moreno has been fighting at the top of the division as both champion and challenger for the last five years, and has shown that he’s still a dangerous man. Taira is hoping his second shot at an elite opponent will turn out better than his first, especially as the next stop for either man is a title shot.

Right off the bat, Taira is going to grapple and come forward to test Moreno’s resolve. We’ve seen Taira look dangerous in the early goings, and he does have excellent submission skills and good finishing instincts.

His grappling and submission skills are excellent, as he’s averaging over three takedowns per fight, and is coming off a second-round submission win over HyunSung Park, where he landed four of them before getting the submission.

However, as we saw in his fight with Brandon Royval, if he can’t keep you down and has to resort to striking, he’s not nearly as dangerous. Taira tends to do his best work in the early goings of the fight, but the critical moment of this fight will come if the historically durable Moreno can escape that first-round blitz. 

Moreno has bounced back from a pair of split-decision losses to champion Alexandre Pantoja and Brandon Royval, which oddsmakers are holding against him more than they should.

We’ve seen Moreno display excellent grappling defense against the true elite of the division, and that’s not a good thing for Taira. He’s a solid boxer with a sharp jab and good combination striking, and his conditioning is still top tier for the division and hasn’t been finished in his UFC career.

He’s been in some brutal wars over the better part of the last five years, and that kind of run could mean there’s less in the tank than his recent performances could suggest. 

Taira is dangerous early, but he doesn’t carry that same threat after the first round. Moreno’s experience, superior striking, and underrated ground defense should be enough to give Taira another lesson, as the young star in the making will get back in line. Moreno is the pick. 

Best bet analysis
Moreno should be able to get on his feet fast enough to avoid the submissions from Taira, and the striking advantage will be apparent early on as the former champion will start fast and build a deficit similar to the Royval fight.

Expect that steady activity to carry the fight for Moreno after a chippy first round, ultimately winning a decision.

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Brandon Moreno vs Tatsuro Taira odds

Method of Victory	Moreno	Taira
To win outright	+100	-125
To win by KO/TKO	+950	+1400
To win by decision	+160	+145
To win by submission	+1150	+575
Draw	+5000	+5000

Odds as of 12-6.

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Brandon Moreno vs Tatsuro Taira tale of the tape

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