UFC 323 Merab Dvalishvili vs Petr Yan Predictions, Picks & Odds

Merab Dvalishvili makes his UFC record fourth title defense in a year as he takes on Petr Yan in the main event at UFC 323 this Saturday.

These bantamweights fought back in 2023 with Dvalishvili winning, and he's expected to win again with UFC odds having him as a -425 favorite with the challenger Yan coming back at +305. 

Here are my best UFC 323: Dvalishvili vs. Yan 2 predictions for December 6, from the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas.

Dvalishvili vs Yan prediction and best bet

• My fight prediction: Dvalishvili moneyline (-380 at BET99)
  
  
• My best bet: Dvalishvili by decision (-280 at BET99)

Fight analysis

Merab " The Machine" Dvalishvili is on a 14-fight win streak and is fresh off a unanimous decision win against Cory Sandhagen for his third title defense.

Petr Yan is the former bantamweight champ and has won three in a row after losing a lopsided decision to Dvalishvili in 2023.

Yan is a well-rounded fighter who combines highly technical boxing with great footwork and strong wrestling. That said, his wrestling is nowhere near the same level as Dvalishvili, who is relentless with pressure and chains takedowns.

The Georgian has shattered the UFC record for career takedowns (117) and took Yan down 11 times on an incredible 49 attempts in their previous clash. Merab was also busier in the standup during that bout, boasting a 129-66 edge in significant strikes at distance.

Yan has a tendency to start slow and often gives away the first round due to a lack of activity. He usually gets better as the fight goes on, but that won't be the case against Merab, who has some of the best cardio in UFC history.

Yan doesn't have the power to put away Dvalishvili early, and the champ will never let Yan back in the fight once he gets him on the back foot and wins rounds. 

Best bet analysis

Dvalishvili has been a dominant champion, but he doesn't have knockout power and rarely hunts for submissions. During his 14-fight win streak, only two of those bouts ended inside the distance. 

While Merab submitted Sean O'Malley earlier this year, Yan has much better scrambling and defensive grappling. Yan's last seven bouts have gone the distance, and he has never been finished in his career.

Dvalishvili took the first bout against Yan with 50-45 scorecards from every judge. There have been many examples of a fighter losing by points only to be finished in a rematch, but everything about this matchup suggests another decision win for The Machine.

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Merab Dvalishvili vs Petr Yan odds

Method of Victory	Dvalishvili	Yan
To win outright	-380	+305
To win by KO/TKO	+975	+750
To win by decision	-280	+600
To win by submission	+1300	+2700
Draw	+3500	+3500

Odds as of 12-6.

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Merab Dvalishvili vs Petr Yan tale of the tape

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