We’re closing out 2025 with the final PPV of the year, as UFC 323 takes over T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas tonight.
Headlining the card are two highly anticipated title fights, rounding out what should be a tremendous card.
Below, I break down the UFC odds with my free betting picks for Saturday, December 6.
Best UFC 323 parlay picks
Mansur Abdul-Malik by KO/TKO or DQ
Alexandre Pantoja moneyline
Petr Yan moneyline
Mansur Abdul-Malik by KO/TKO or DQ
The early prelims feature Mansur Abdul-Malik and Antonio Trocoli in a middleweight bout between two unranked contenders. Abdul-Malik enters UFC 323 as the biggest favorite on the card, and the matchmaking is so lopsided that he will likely close around the -1200 to -1500 range.
Seven of his eight professional wins have come by KO/TKO. Meanwhile, Trocoli has struggled badly at the UFC level, with both of his promotional losses coming inside the distance.
The UFC clearly views Abdul-Malik as someone to build around, and this matchup feels like they are farming a highlight-reel finish to push his profile upward.
Trocoli’s tall frame and long reactions make him especially vulnerable to Mansur’s aggressive pocket bursts. Given the massive skill gap and both fighters’ finishing tendencies, Abdul-Malik by KO/TKO is by far the most likely outcome.
Alexandre Pantoja moneyline
The first title fight of UFC 323 sees Alexandre Pantoja defending his flyweight belt against Joshua Van. Pantoja enters the matchup riding eight straight wins and four consecutive title defenses, a resume that likely places him as the second-greatest flyweight ever behind Demetrious Johnson.
Pantoja’s destruction of Kai Kara-France was telling, as KKF had historically shown elite defensive grappling. If Pantoja can handle a proven veteran like that with ease, Van may not be ready for this level.
Van’s meteoric rise is exciting, but very few fighters compete for a UFC title with so little pro experience and at such a young age. Analysts like Din Thomas have openly stated that Van is “not at the level” yet to dethrone someone as well-rounded and battle-tested as Pantoja, and the tape strongly supports that.
Petr Yan moneyline
The main event is a rematch between two of the best 135-pounders on the planet as Merab Dvalishvili defends his title against Petr Yan. While Dvalishvili dominated their first fight nearly three years ago, Yan insists he was compromised physically and fighting at “50%.”
Now returning fully healthy, Yan has the technical skills to make this matchup far more competitive, especially with his elite striking. Merab’s nonstop pace is always a threat, but he comes into this fight after back-to-back grueling training camps and looked extremely depleted at weigh-ins.
Champions historically falter when the workload becomes unsustainable, and Merab’s desire to fight constantly for the fans may be pushing him into dangerous territory. If his recuperation was incomplete or his physical peak has dipped even slightly, Yan is exactly the type of fighter able to exploit that opening.
Not intended for use in MA.
Affiliate Disclosure: Our team of experts has thoroughly researched and handpicked each product that appears on our website. We may receive compensation if you sign up through our links.
