UFC 323 Yan Blachowicz vs Bogdan Guskov Predictions, Picks & Odds

UFC 323 takes place at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas tonight, where Jan Blachowicz and Bogdan Guskov get the main card started in a light heavyweight clash.

Blachowicz enters this bout as a -135 betting favorite in the UFC odds, and I expect the veteran to get back into the win column.

Read more in my Blachowicz vs. Guskov predictions for Saturday, December 6.

Blachowicz vs Guskov prediction and best bet

• My fight prediction: Blachowicz moneyline (-135 at BET99)
  
  
• My best bet: Under 2.5 rounds (-150 at BET99)

Fight analysis
Jan Blachowicz is 42 years of age and nearing the end of his career, but a 1-3-1 mark over his last five bouts underscores the level of competition he’s faced.

Carlos Ulberg, Alex Pereira, and Magomed Ankalaev make up his last three fights — all current champions, former champions, or fighters firmly in the discussion.

Bogdan Guskov, who hits back at +105, is certainly a serious threat as he looks to pick up his fifth straight win in the UFC, but the difference in experience and pedigree between the two men is astronomical.

Blachowicz may not have the same speed and power as he did back in the day, but he will be the more technically sound fighter against Guskov, as well as the better grappler. The 42-year-old has only been finished twice in the past 14 years, so I’m not too worried about his chin.

Best bet analysis
This fight could go many different ways, but there are certainly some viable paths to an early stoppage.

Either Guskov cracks Blachowicz early and finds his fourth KO in his last five fights, or Blachowicz comes in with a grappling-heavy approach and simply dominates Guskov on the ground.

Guskov’s only loss in the UFC came via submission against Volkan Oezdemir, a striker who isn’t known for his grappling, so we know there are holes in his ground game.

Blachowicz hasn’t submitted anyone since 2018, but we did see flashes of his grappling prowess against Pereira, when he nearly locked in a first-round rear-naked choke. That could be his easiest path to victory tonight.

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Yan Blachowicz vs Bogdan Guskov odds

Method of Victory	Blachowicz	Guskov
To win outright	-135	+105
To win by KO/TKO	+365	+195
To win by decision	+225	+625
To win by submission	+700	+1450
Draw	+5000	+5000

Odds as of 12-6.

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Yan Blachowicz vs Bogdan Guskov tale of the tape

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