UFC 323 Alexandre Pantoja vs Joshua Van Predictions, Picks & Odds

Alexandre Pantoja puts his flyweight title on the line against rising star Joshua Van in the co-main event at UFC 323 tonight.

UFC odds currently have the champion Pantoja installed as a -240 favorite, with Van listed at +180.

Here are my top Pantoja vs. Van predictions for Saturday, December 6, from T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas.

Pantoja vs Van prediction and best bet

• My fight prediction: Pantoja moneyline (-240 at BET99)
  
  
• My best bet: Pantoja by submission or decision (-160 at BET99)

Fight analysis
Alexandre "The Cannibal" Pantoja is on an eight-fight win streak, and this will be his fifth title defense. He's coming off a submission win against Kai-Kara France in June and has essentially cleared out the division with multiple wins against top contenders Brandon Royval and Brandon Moreno. 

One fighter he hasn't faced is Joshua Van, who has surged up the rankings after getting knocked out by Charles Johnson in July of 2024. 

Since then, Van has reeled off five straight wins to earn a crack at the title. In his last bout, he faced Royval and won a unanimous decision in a back-and-forth slugfest.

Van is a high-volume striker who throws a variety of punches with power and precision. That said, Pantoja is also a good striker with dangerous leg kicks and a granite chin. He got the better of Kara-France in the stand-up, which was impressive against a Muay Thai specialist.

Although Van boasts an 81% takedown defense, he was taken down four times by Rei Tsuruya earlier this year. Pantoja is a better wrestler than Tsuruya, and he was able to land three takedowns on Kara-France, despite the Kiwi also boasting a takedown defense above 80% 

This title fight will be a bit too much and too soon for the 24-year-old challenger.

Best bet analysis
Pantoja has pop in his shots, but he hasn't won by knockout since 2019 when he starched the glass jaw of Matt Schnell. On his current eight-fight win streak, four have been via submission, with the others coming by points.

Van was a bit lucky that Royval was willing to brawl with him and never tried to implement his wrestling. Pantoja will walk forward and eat shots, but he's also a high-IQ fighter who knows that grappling is his biggest edge.

Expect Pantoja to rely on his wrestling, and once he gets this to the mat, his strength and transitions will be tough to resist. If he takes Van's back, he'll either be able to sink in a choke or win rounds with control. 

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Alexandre Pantoja vs Joshua Van odds

Method of Victory	Pantoja	Van
To win outright	-240	+180
To win by KO/TKO	+800	+440
To win by decision	+295	+475
To win by submission	+140	+3300
Draw	+3500	+3500

Odds as of 12-6.

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Alexandre Pantoja vs Joshua Van tale of the tape

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