We've already touched upon the Muchova vs. Sabalenka semifinal picks and predictions, so let's hop into the second matchup on Thursday.
Iga Swiatek looks poised to renew her rivalry with Aryna Sabalenka, and she'll look to make quick work of Beatriz Haddad Maia as the massive French Open odds favorite. With that said, BHM won't go down easy.
Let’s take a look at how to bet Thursday’s second semifinal in my French Open betting picks.
French Open Women's Semifinal #2 picks and predictions
Click on each prediction to read full analysis.
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Iga Swiatek vs Beatriz Haddad Maia odds and picks
|(1) Iga Swiatek||(14) Beatriz Haddad Maia|
|-6.5 (-140)||Game spread||+6.5 (_115)|
|Over 17.5 (-110)||Total games||Under 17.5 (-11))|
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook on June 7, 2023.
Iga Swiatek vs Beatriz Haddad Maia match prediction
It’s wild to see a moneyline so steep at this juncture of a Grand Slam, particularly on the women’s side where the unpredictable happens on a daily basis. On top of that, these two will clash on the most volatile surface of them all.
I still think this one should go to the favorite here. Though I disagree with the odds, Swiatek has been nothing short of dominant at Roland Garros, where she has lost just twice in four trips here. She’s looking for her third title in four years, and she's rightfully favored to capture it.
Swiatek’s heavy topspin forehand coupled with her ability to create acute angles makes her a boar to play here on clay. She’s lost just twice on the first all year and just 17 times in total since turning pro in 2017 as a teenager. She’s more skilled than Haddad Maia and should have superior fitness with her counterpart coming off a match that took over three hours just days ago.
Prediction: Swiatek moneyline (-1,800 at DraftKings)
Iga Swiatek vs Beatriz Haddad Maia best bet
I’m going to skip the total here and go for the juicy bet, which is for Haddad Maia to steal a set off of Swiatek.
I know it sounds crazy considering just four players have managed to win a set off of Swiatek all year on this surface in 20 matches... but Haddad Maia is an excellent clay-court player with a 10-3 record this year — including an impressive win over Ons Jabeur last round. She continues to defy the odds and win matches a year after capturing her first two WTA titles.
Swiatek fell to Haddad Maia last year in their only meeting, which took place on a hard court. Judging by career records, this should be a much more favorable setting for the Brazilian.
In addition to that, while the Polish superstar has a good record against lefties, she really doesn’t face them all that often. She’s played just three lefties since Haddad Maia took her out, and while she did dominate Leylah Fernandez, her matches with Martina Trevisan and Bernarda Pera were just short of her best. The Toronto match saw Swiatek save 15 of 19 break points against Haddad Maia, and I could see a similarly-challenging battle unfolding here.
Best bet: Haddad Maia +1.5 sets (+330 at DraftKings)