US Open Tennis Odds 2026: Sinner's Lead Strengthens With Alcaraz Out at Cincinnati

Phil Naessens - Contributor at Covers.com
Phil Naessens • Betting Analyst 19+ years betting experience
Updated: Aug 5, 2026 , 03:31 PM ET • 4 min read

Jannik Sinner is at the top of the tennis world on the men's side, and he's the overwhelming favorite to win the US Open. Meanwhile, Aryna Sabalenka holds down the women's top spot ahead of the 2026 US Open.

Jannik Sinner ATP Tour
Photo By - Reuters Connect. Jannik Sinner in tennis action.

The 2026 US Open odds are taking shape, with reigning Wimbledon champion Jannik Sinner leading the men's field as he looks to add another major title.

His potential biggest rival, Carlos Alcaraz, has withdrawn from the Cincinnati Open, signaling that he might not be recovered from his wrist injury in time for the US Open.

On the women's side, Aryna Sabalenka enters as the betting favorite, aiming to capture her third consecutive US Open crown and further cement her dominance on hard courts.

Here are the latest US Open tennis odds, with New York's USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center set to host from August 23 to September 13.

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2026 US Open men's singles odds

Name Kalshi
Probabillity
Jannik Sinner 57%
Carlos Alcaraz 12%
Alexander Zverev 9%
Novak Djokovic 5%
Taylor Fritz 3%
Ben Shelton 3%
Felix Auger-Aliassime 2%
Joao Fonseca 2%
Rafael Jodar 2%
Daniil Medvedev 2%

Percentages courtesy of Kalshi.

US Open men's singles betting favorites and analysis

World No. 1 Jannik Sinner is the overwhelming favorite to raise his second career US Open title. He is 55-5 across the previous 52 weeks on the cement and has won his past three Masters 1000 hardcourt events, including both legs of the Sunshine Double (Indian Wells, Miami).

Defending champion Carlos Alcaraz is still the second favorite despite missing a scheduled appearance in Cincinnati. That would explain why he plummeted from 27% to 12% overnight.

He's followed by French Open champion Alexander Zverev, and four-time US Open champion Novak Djokovic.

2026 US Open women's singles odds

Name Kalshi
Probabillity
Aryna Sabalenka 26%
Coco Gauff 17%
Iga Swiatek 11%
Elena Rybakina 10%
Mirra Andreeva 8%
Alexandra Eala 7%
Naomi Osaka 6%
Jessica Pegula 5%
Marta Kostyuk 5%
Iva Jovic 4%

Percentages courtesy of Kalshi.

US Open women's singles betting favorites and analysis

Two-time defending champion Aryna Sabalenka is the favorite at Kalshi. Like Sinner, she won both legs of the Sunshine Double and is 39-4 on the hard courts over the last year. 

2022 US Open champion Iga Swiatek is the fourth favorite, with 2023 champion Coco Gauff, World No. 2 Elena Rybakina, and Alexandra Eala rounding out the Top 5 over at Kalshi. 

Previous US Open singles champions

Here are the US Open singles champions for the last 10 years.

Year Men's Champion Women's Champion
2025 Carlos Alcaraz Aryna Sabalenka
2024 Jannik Sinner Aryna Sabalenka
2023 Novak Djokovic Coco Gauff
2022 Carlos Alcaraz Iga Swiatek
2021 Daniil Medvedev Emma Raducanu
2020 Dominic Thiem Naomi Osaka
2019 Rafael Nadal Bianca Andreescu
2018 Novak Djokovic Naomi Osaka
2017 Rafael Nadal Sloane Stephens
2016 Stan Wawrinka Angelique Kerber

US Open trends

  • The last non-European player to win the Men’s Singles title was Juan Martin del Potro in 2009.
  • Roger Federer is the only player to repeat as Men’s Singles champion since 2000, winning five consecutive titles (2004-08).

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Phil Naessens
Betting Analyst

Prior to joining Covers in 2022, Phil Naessens spent 38 years as a resident tennis pro in Las Vegas, Mykonos, and Corfu, Greece. He’s the past host of the Phil Naessens Show (Armed Forces Radio), and currently hosts the Crush and Rush Tennis Podcast.

Phil is the author of the Betting 101 series (MLB, NFL, NCAAF, and Tennis) and has written for numerous publications, including Advance Local, SB Nation, FanSided, and Lenny Melnick Fantasy Sports. 

His favorite sports to bet on are tennis, MLB, WNBA, Euro men’s and women’s hoops, NCAA sports, NFL, and the NBA. Phil has numerous betting accounts in the US and Europe, and his best advice is to line shop for the best value possible.

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