Just four women remain in the single’s draw at 2023's second Grand Slam, and with two big favorites come two tenacious underdogs in French Open odds.
Aryna Sabalenka looks poised to renew her rivalry with Iga Swiatek, but she can’t overlook a trendy Karolina Muchova who is playing some excellent tennis.
French Open Women's Semifinal #1 picks and predictions
Click on each prediction to read full analysis.
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Karolina Muchova vs Aryna Sabalenka odds and picks
|Karolina Muchova||(2) Aryna Sabalenka|
|+4.5 (-110)||Game spread||-4.5 (-110)|
|Over 20.5 (-110)||Total games||Under 20.5 (-110)|
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Sportsbook on June 7, 2023.
Karolina Muchova vs Aryna Sabalenka match prediction
There’s no way around it, Aryna Sabalenka is on fire. The Belarusian has now lost just five matches all season and comes into Thursday’s semifinal against Karolina Muchova with a 14-2 record on the dirt. She’s always had the game to dominate the WTA Tour, standing in at an imposing 6-feet and delivering a massive serve and forehand — but it wasn’t until late last season she truly honed her ability and turned into a force to be reckoned with.
Sabalenka finally got over the mental hurdles that have plagued her for years and got herself into the semis of the US Open, where she was ultimately outlasted in three sets by the most dominant player in the world — Iga Swiatek. She picked up right where she left off by winning the Australian Open this winter, and on the dirt this year she’s been able to blow her opponents away even on a slower surface.
With a win over Swiatek in the Madrid final and some big results over Elena Svitolina and Sloane Stephens in recent matches, it seems nothing will stop Sabalenka here. Muchova has been on the attack in some of her matches against baseliners, but she should be a passenger in most of these rallies with Sabalenka. With the match on her racquet, she won’t lose.
Prediction: Sabalenka moneyline (-310 at DraftKings)
Karolina Muchova vs Aryna Sabalenka best bet
Sabalenka has yet to drop a set at the championships, and all but one of her matches — the Stephens win — was able to come in Under 20.5 games. Even against a dangerous Svitolina, who was ranked in the Top 5 not too long ago, Sabalenka was able to get aggressive on return and serve without issue to get back to the locker room in Under 20.5 games.
While their previous meeting in 2019 ended 7-5, 7-6 in Sabalenka's favor, she’s made great strides since then and should be able to produce a much more dominant scoreline here. Muchova wins just 67% of points behind her first serve and ranks 118th this year in first serves in. She should be unable to dictate many games here with Sabalenka ready to attack her second serves — something she’s done all year now.
I like this one to be quick and easy for the favorite.
Best bet: Under 20.5 games (-110 at DraftKings)