Ben Shelton makes his first Grand Slam final appearance at his home Slam, and it's only fitting he'll have to take down a five-time Slam finalist, Alexander Zverev.
This year's French Open champ is understandably the favorite, but my Zverev vs. Shelton predictions suggest he may have his work cut out for him.
Zverev, the favorite in the US Open odds, is playing for a Grand Slam title in New York six years after he squandered a two-set lead to lose the US Open to Dominic Thiem.
Shelton will look to become the first American Grand Slam champion since Andy Roddick won the 2003 US Open, when Shelton was less than a year old.
Zverev vs. Shelton predictions
- My match prediction: Ben Shelton moneyline 44%
- My best prop: Over 3.5 Sets 69%
Percentages courtesy of Kalshi, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Match analysis: Ben Shelton moneyline
Ben Shelton opens as a slight underdog against Alexander Zverev.
The young American is appearing in his first Grand Slam final, at his home tournament. The man across the net has reached this stage five times before.
While the German owns the head-to-head convincingly at 5-0, just two of those wins have come on an outdoor hardcourt — one of which was a straight-sets win in Cincinnati last year following Shelton's title run in Canada.
He similarly suffered a second-round loss in Cincinnati last month after defending his Canada title.
They've never faced each other at the US Open.
Shelton's 76% win rate on hardcourt this year, third on Tour, narrowly edges out Zverev's 72%. They're second and third, respectively, in service points won, and both have played numerous tiebreaks to reach this stage.
Expect holds and aces aplenty. Both players sport a hold rate above 90% on hardcourt this year.
Zverev's 1.27 dominance ratio trails only Carlos Alcaraz and Jannik Sinner. Still, Shelton's own 1.18 DR, plus his recent form, are close enough to that mark to give me confidence in the young American to end a drought as old as he is.
Shelton took down Alcaraz to make it here — something Zverev hasn't done at a Slam in over four years. And Sacha has never faced this version of Ben Shelton.
Best prop analysis: Over 3.5 Sets
Zverev has spent the most time on court through the quarterfinals of any No. 1 seed, at over sixteen hours. Meanwhile, Shelton has played at least four sets in five of his six matches in New York.
Both players are known for their massive serves and elite hold percentages. Neither has lost in straight sets at Flushing Meadows since 2023, when Shelton was just 20 years old and making his second appearance at the tournament.
Unseeded players have taken Zverev the distance this very tournament. Shelton dispatched a seven-time Slam champion in a five-set instant classic, holding his own in rallies against one of the best movers on Tour.
This is the biggest night for American men's tennis in nearly two decades (with apologies to 2024 Taylor Fritz), and this one seems destined to go at least four sets — or quite possibly the distance.
Zverev vs. Shelton odds
| (1) Alexander Zverev | (8) Ben Shelton | |
|---|---|---|
| 56% | Moneyline | 44% |
| -1.5 (51%) | Game spread | -1.5 (39%) |
| Over 42.5 (50%) | Total games | Over 42.5 (50%) |
How to watch Zverev vs. Shelton
| Location | USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center, Flushing, NY |
| Date | Sunday, Sept. 13, 2026 |
| Time | 2:00 p.m. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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