Our 2026 US Open Sabalenka vs. Rybakina prediction backs the two-time defending champion to finish the job after her best performance of the tournament.
Sabalenka came out firing against Jessica Pegula in the semifinals, while Rybakina had to grind her way past Coco Gauff to reach Saturday’s US Open final.
Now the new World No. 1 meets the woman who has owned this matchup more often than not, with Sabalenka holding a 10-7 head-to-head edge and plenty of motivation to leave New York with the trophy.
Read on for my US Open Women's singles final prediction, and why I'm all in on Sabalenka.
Sabalenka vs Rybakina prediction
- My match prediction: Sabalenka moneyline (56%)
Percentages courtesy of DraftKings Predictions, one of the best prediction market apps.
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Match analysis
I’m siding with Aryna Sabalenka in the final.
She leads Elena Rybakina 10-7 head-to-head and won their most recent meeting in Miami, 6-4, 6-3.
Sabalenka is also 40-5 on hard courts over the last 52 weeks, with a 1.835 dominance ratio and 4.360 match efficiency, both better than Rybakina’s 1.389 and 4.001.
Rybakina already has the No. 1 ranking locked up, but she barely survived Coco Gauff in the semifinals. Sabalenka looked much sharper against Jessica Pegula.
More importantly, Sabalenka came out angry and played like it. She was aggressive from the opening ball and never let Pegula settle in a 7-5, 6-2 win.
If that version shows up again Saturday, I like Sabalenka to beat the new No. 1 and win the US Open.
Play Sabalenka up to 60%.
Sabalenka vs Rybakina odds
| No. 1 Aryna Sabalenka | No. 2 Elena Rybakina | |
|---|---|---|
| 56% | Moneyline | 44% |
Odds courtesy of DraftKings Predictions.
How to watch Sabalenka vs Rybakina
| Location | USTA Billie Jean King National Tennis Center, Queens, NY |
| Date | Saturday, Sept. 12, 2026 |
| Time | 4 pm. ET |
| TV | ESPN |
Odds are correct at the time of publishing and are subject to change.
Not intended for use in MA.
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