The Super Bowl odds have been live for about 12 hours, and there has already been significant line movement.
I run down the opening odds for this year’s Big Game between the New England Patriots and Seattle Seahawks and highlight the biggest market moves as we start the countdown to kickoff on February 8.
Super Bowl 60 odds
Super Bowl 60 spread movement
Look-ahead lines before the result of Championship Sunday listed the Seattle Seahawks as a potential 3.5-point favorite versus the New England Patriots on a neutral field at Levi’s Stadium.
Sportsbooks like DraftKings followed that same path to their official opening spread, with Seattle hitting the board at -3.5.
That line lasted mere minutes as one-sided action on the Seahawks forced a move straight to -4.5 and eventually -5.5, before buyback on New England showed up Monday morning.
The industry consensus is currently Seattle -4.5, with a few shops still hanging a cheaper Seahawks -5 (-103 to -108).
While the spread has stayed off the key numbers of three and six — bouncing around what some consider “dead numbers” — the immediate jump from -3.5 to -4.5 is telling.
A four-point spread is an undervalued key number in NFL betting, sitting behind the standard stops of three, six, seven, and 10 in terms of frequency of margin. Hanging a half-point hook at Seattle -4.5 does give bookmakers more wiggle room to adjust to the floor of action still to come on Super Bowl LX.
The majority of money will show up in the final 72 hours before kickoff, with a big push from public bettors and recreational gamblers, who tend to gravitate toward the favorite.
At this current post, additional action on Seattle can move this line to -5.5 with less risk the final score lands on five (around 3.6%) and knowing there will be money on the Patriots at +5.5 if and when they need it.
There aren’t any notable injuries on either team that could sway this spread much, and the teams have two weeks to heal up any “questionable” designations between now and February 8.
Super Bowl 60 betting total movement
The look-ahead total for this possible Super Bowl pairing was 45.5 points ahead of Sunday’s results. Following the Seahawks’ strong offensive effort in the win over the Los Angeles Rams, the official SBLX total opened at 46.5 points on Sunday night.
The movement on the Over/Under hasn’t been as aggressive as the point spread, but we have seen a slight adjustment toward the Under as of Monday morning.
There are plenty of 46.5-point totals still available, but most are seeing padding on the vig to the Under, while many other books have dropped the number to 46 points. There was even a brief stop at 45.5 O/U at DraftKings early Monday morning, but Over money took that quickly and returned the total to 46.5 points.
Debating key numbers for NFL total betting has changed a bit in recent years with the recent explosion in offense as well as the adjustment to extra point distance back in 2015.
Traditional key O/U stops like 44 and 47 points — which this Super Bowl LX total sits between — have been joined by other frequent final tallies, like 45 and 46 points. This current Over/Under number can draw whatever action bookmakers need with a half-point tweak here and there.
While books have adjusted toward the Under for the first move, they know there will be no shortage of Over action from the betting public come Super Sunday. With that in mind, bookmakers won’t make any major knee-jerk reactions based on sharper Under opinions, banking on public play on the Over to offset that early money.
The forecast for Santa Clara is too far away to accurately account for, but chances are game-time conditions will be more favorable than the climate the Patriots have played in throughout the playoffs (sub-freezing temps, wind, and snow).
