Kyren Williams had 17 runs last week, and 11 of those went for no more than three yards. As such, Blake Corum began getting touches in the second quarter. And while five carries doesn’t seem like a lot, he produced positive results on nearly all of them. Corum ended up with 44 yards on five carries, and I expect he will see more touches against the Eagles. His 18 snaps against the Titans matched his career high, and the lack of production by Williams should see that trend continue. Matthew Stafford needs the run game to be productive if the Rams are going to win this game. Failing to establish the run will allow the Philadelphia pass rush to tee off on him. Based on early returns, Corum may offer the best opportunity for Los Angeles to pick up chunks on the ground. A 16-yard game shouldn’t be that difficult for him to achieve.
Saquon Barkley torched the Rams in both meetings last year, posting his best two rushing totals of the entire season with 255 yards in the regular season and 205 yards in the playoff game. And it wasn’t just a steady dose of tough runs. Barkley was putting on a show, with touchdown runs of 62 yards and 78 yards in the NFC Divisional Round game. That was after 70-yard and 72-yard touchdowns in the regular season contest. Barkley rushed for just 60 yards against the Cowboys and 88 yards against the Chiefs, but the Rams allowed 92 yards on 20 carries to Tony Pollard last week. And they allowed Nick Chubb to pick up 60 yards on 13 carries behind that horrible Houston offensive line. Barkley is far better than either of those backs, and playing behind an elite line. I’ll happily take him to hit the century mark again, and will probably ladder him up to 150 yards.
The Rams have struggled this season against receiving tight ends. Houston tight ends Dalton Schultz and Cade Stover combined for seven catches and 50 yards on nine targets, while Tennessee got four catches for 35 yards from Chig Okonkwo last week. Dallas Goedert has been cleared to play on Sunday. He is in a contract year, and he badly wants to stay in Philadelphia. He’s motivated to produce, and Hurts often looks to him in key situations. This is a situation where he could be limited in his yardage, but four catches is a floor he should easily clear. After all, he faced the Rams twice last season. He caught four of five targets for 19 yards in the regular-season meeting, and all four targets for 56 yards in the playoffs when the teams got together. He’ll get another four here.
Barkley caught all four passes his way for 27 yards in the NFC Divisional Round. So far in 2025, he’s seen his share of routes, especially in the win over Dallas in Week 1. Philadelphia couldn’t get Barkley going in that opener (just 3.3 ypc), so it found other ways to put the ball in his hands. He was targeted five times for four receptions and 24 yards. Before the playoff matchups with Los Angeles in January, these foes clashed in Week 12. The Eagles jumped on Barkley’s back, with the RB rumbling for 255 yards but adding 47 receiving yards on 4-for-4 receiving. Projections for Barkley this Sunday range from 17 to 22.4 receiving yards versus the Rams.
The Rams rank second in EPA allowed, with an emphasis on the passing defense. That success stems from the pass rush, which is getting excellent pressure with just the front four. Being able to collapse the pocket with just four pass rushers allows L.A.’s LBs to spy QB Jalen Hurts as well as clog up the passing lanes and sniff out shorter throws. And that’s when Hurts drops back. This Philadelphia offense is still anchored in the run.
The Philadelphia Eagles are listed as 3-point favorites at Pinnacle, but I believe the spread should be closer to Eagles -6.5. This is a tough spot for the Los Angeles Rams, who will be on the East Coast playing outdoors for the second straight week. Their offense looks much more comfortable at home in a dome, but on the road—with crowd noise, outdoor conditions, and one of the league’s best pass rushes—it’s a different story. The Eagles’ offensive line is capable of neutralizing Jared Verse, which will force the Rams’ secondary to shoulder even more of the defensive load.
Blake Corum saw a bigger role last week, playing 30% of the snaps and closing out the game with a goal-line touchdown in the fourth quarter. Kyren Williams is coming off a 351-carry season and is averaging just 3.8 yards per carry through two games. Certainly not explosive. Of the five carries inside the 10-yard line this year, Corum has two (for five yards and a TD), while Williams has three (for eight yards and a TD). Both are trusted inside the 5-yard line. Head coach Sean McVay also said after the game that the 70/30 split between Williams and Corum is “much more in alignment” with how he wants the backfield to look going forward.
The model projects the Philadelphia Eagles offensive approach to skew 2.4% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context) with offensive coordinator Kevin Patullo now calling the plays.. The model projects the Philadelphia Eagles to call the 8th-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 65.2 plays, given their underlying propensities and game dynamics.. The 5th-most plays in football have been run by the Philadelphia Eagles since the start of last season (a whopping 59.5 per game on average).. With a remarkable 19.4% Red Zone Target Rate (99th percentile) since the start of last season, Saquon Barkley stands among the RB receiving threats with the most usage near the goal line in the league.. Saquon Barkley has accrued a whopping 6.0 air yards per game since the start of last season: 97th percentile among RBs. (That might not seem too impressive, but most RBs wind up with negative air yards as a result of being targeted behind the line of scrimmage).
The model projects the Philadelphia Eagles offensive approach to skew 2.4% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context) with offensive coordinator Kevin Patullo now calling the plays.. The model projects the Philadelphia Eagles to call the 8th-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 65.2 plays, given their underlying propensities and game dynamics.. The 5th-most plays in football have been run by the Philadelphia Eagles since the start of last season (a whopping 59.5 per game on average).
The model projects the Philadelphia Eagles offensive approach to skew 2.4% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context) with offensive coordinator Kevin Patullo now calling the plays.. The model projects the Philadelphia Eagles to call the 8th-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 65.2 plays, given their underlying propensities and game dynamics.. The 5th-most plays in football have been run by the Philadelphia Eagles since the start of last season (a whopping 59.5 per game on average).. Jalen Hurts's throwing precision has gotten better this season, with his Adjusted Completion% rising from 68.3% to 77.2%.. Since the start of last season, the anemic Rams defense has conceded the 8th-most yards-after-the-catch in the NFL to opposing teams: a massive 4.88 YAC.
This game's spread suggests a throwing game script for the Rams, who are -3.5-point underdogs.. The leading projections forecast the Rams to be the 4th-most pass-oriented team on the slate this week with a 61.7% pass rate, given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics.. The predictive model expects Matthew Stafford to attempt 35.7 passes in this week's contest, on balance: the 10th-most out of all quarterbacks.. Matthew Stafford's throwing precision has gotten a boost this season, with his Adjusted Completion% rising from 65.2% to 71.7%.. Matthew Stafford's pass-game efficiency has gotten a boost this season, compiling 9.02 adjusted yards-per-target compared to a mere 7.18 figure last season.
The model projects the Philadelphia Eagles offensive approach to skew 2.4% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context) with offensive coordinator Kevin Patullo now calling the plays.. The model projects the Philadelphia Eagles to call the 8th-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 65.2 plays, given their underlying propensities and game dynamics.. The 5th-most plays in football have been run by the Philadelphia Eagles since the start of last season (a whopping 59.5 per game on average).. This week, Saquon Barkley is expected by the projection model to place in the 89th percentile when it comes to running backs with 3.6 targets.. The Los Angeles Rams pass defense has been particularly weak when opposing RBs have gotten into space, allowing an average of 8.08 yards-after-the-catch since the start of last season: the most in football.
The model projects the Philadelphia Eagles offensive approach to skew 2.4% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context) with offensive coordinator Kevin Patullo now calling the plays.. The model projects the Philadelphia Eagles to call the 8th-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 65.2 plays, given their underlying propensities and game dynamics.. The 5th-most plays in football have been run by the Philadelphia Eagles since the start of last season (a whopping 59.5 per game on average).. This week, A.J. Brown is predicted by the model to finish in the 92nd percentile when it comes to WRs with 8.5 targets.. With an excellent 71.0 adjusted yards per game through the air (92nd percentile) since the start of last season, A.J. Brown stands as one of the top pass-catching WRs in the NFL.
The model projects the Philadelphia Eagles offensive approach to skew 2.4% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context) with offensive coordinator Kevin Patullo now calling the plays.. The model projects the Philadelphia Eagles to call the 8th-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 65.2 plays, given their underlying propensities and game dynamics.. The 5th-most plays in football have been run by the Philadelphia Eagles since the start of last season (a whopping 59.5 per game on average).. The leading projections forecast Dallas Goedert to total 5.7 targets this week, on balance, putting him in the 89th percentile among tight ends.. Dallas Goedert has been a key part of his team's pass game, earning a Target Share of 23.6% since the start of last season, which ranks in the 98th percentile among TEs.
The model projects the Philadelphia Eagles offensive approach to skew 2.4% more towards passing than it did last season (in a neutral context) with offensive coordinator Kevin Patullo now calling the plays.. Saquon Barkley's 3.7 adjusted yards per carry this season shows a meaningful reduction in his rushing ability over last season's 5.5 mark.. The Rams safeties rank as the 7th-best unit in the NFL since the start of last season when it comes to run defense.
The Eagles are a 3.5-point favorite this week, likely creating a rushing game script.. The model projects the Eagles to be the most run-oriented team among all teams this week with a 50.2% run rate, given their underlying propensities and matchup dynamics.. The model projects the Philadelphia Eagles to call the 8th-most offensive plays on the slate this week with 65.2 plays, given their underlying propensities and game dynamics.. With a stellar record of 43.0 adjusted yards per game on the ground (93rd percentile), Jalen Hurts has been among the leading rushing quarterbacks in the NFL since the start of last season.. The Los Angeles Rams defense owns the 9th-worst efficiency against opposing ground games since the start of last season, surrendering 4.66 adjusted yards-per-carry.
The Los Angeles Rams have played in the 3rd-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the league since the start of last season, which ought to result in lower pass volume, higher running volume, and reduced offense efficiency when facing windier conditions in this game.
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