Best NFL Picks Today

Tuten has handled 60% of the team’s red-zone carries and boasts an elite 3.83 yards after contact per attempt and 109.4 PFF elusive rating. He’s also scored in seven of his past 13 games and played 55% of the offensive snaps for the Jags this year. With Houston allowing five rushing touchdowns in 2026, I’d back Tuten to find the end zone to 43%.

Tony Pollard could see his snaps and touches spike with fellow RB Tyjae Spears dealing with multiple injuries heading into Week 6. Pollard has rushed at least 14 times in each of his last four games and Tennessee faces a Colts defense among the worst run stop units. Projections for Pollard sit as high as 17 carries for 70+ rushing yards. My number comes out to 61 yards rushing from the veteran RB.

I got this at 4.1x with a fair price of 3.4x and expect it to come down during the week. This is a classic post-bye-week value play for Coker, who faces a banged-up Eagles team on both sides of the ball. Coker missed Week 4 before heading into the Week 5 bye, making him an afterthought for many. He was a full participant at practice Wednesday. In the two full games he's played this year, he's posted lines of 8/138/2 and 8/66/0. He's also seen five red-zone targets across those two games, more than Tetairoa McMillan. The rest advantage for the Panthers is significant, with the Eagles returning from London.

Germie Bernard will be the WR2 in the passing game this week with Roman Wilson, Ben Skowronek, and Michael Pittman out. When Wilson exited last week, Bernard played 93% of the snaps and posted a 6/80/0 line on a team-high nine targets. Aaron Rodgers has also talked up the rookie, which isn't something that happens every day. A WR2 in this offense should be priced shorter than 4x, not the 4.35x available on Friday. In games where he's played 30+ snaps, he's seen 8+ targets in each. He's also seen a red-zone target in three of his four games. The Bucs have two starters in the secondary listed as questionable, making a play on the rookie even more enticing at a long price.

With Lamar Jackson out, the Ravens defense stepped up in Week 5. This stop unit is learning a brand-new system under head coach Jesse Minter and has been plagued with injuries in the opening month. Baltimore is a prideful crew that stepped up in the second half of SNF and ranks among the top 10 defenses in EPA allowed and opponent success rate over the last two weeks. The pass rush could have LB Trey Hendrickson back for Week 6. His pressure helps the Ravens’ blitz-heavy schemes get home and finally start registering sacks and QB hits. The Cleveland Browns’ erratic offense hasn’t faced a foe this stingy since a Week 1 wash against Jacksonville.

It's a good week to buy low on the Saints' offense after they ran into the Vikings last week and did nothing. The Giants are not the Vikings, and New York has faced the Titans, Commanders, and Cardinals and still ranks No. 22 in EPA/play allowed. They have five DBs on IR and another questionable this week. The Saints can move the ball in Week 6. Kendre Miller is the early-down back now. He had three red-zone carries last week and was the only running back to see any RZ opportunities. Alvin Kamara played just 12 snaps and had only one carry after the Saints' third drive. If New Orleans gets into the red zone, it'll have a great chance of finishing drives with touchdowns, as the Giants rank in the bottom third of the league in RZ TD% allowed. The fair price for a Miller TD should be 2.4x.

I got this at 6x and have the fair price around 5x. Romeo Doubs isn't impressing in an offense that has found a new gear over the last two weeks. Doubs had just one catch despite playing 85% of the snaps and running a route on 92% of dropbacks. Meanwhile, speedster Kyle Williams had 91 yards and a TD on three targets despite just a 34% route share. Williams is getting more looks and played 41% of the snaps in 3-WR sets. With Mack Hollins out, Williams will get his chances to impress and stretch the New York defense in an offense that ranks No. 1 in EPA/dropback over the last two weeks. He doesn't need a lot of volume to cash this.

Tyler Higbee is at a three-week TD price high of 3.6x, which I'd play to 2.35x this week. He might be fourth on the offensive totem pole, but Higbee has emerged as the most productive tight end in this offense. He's had 5+ catches in three straight games, is coming off a season-high in yards, and has 18 grabs for 212 yards since Week 3. There's enough volume in this offense to support a fourth mouth, as the Rams rank second in football in plays per game (70.6) with the fourth-highest pass rate over expected at +2.8%. Matthew Stafford has attempted 50+ passes in three straight weeks. The Cardinals are one of just two teams allowing 70+ receiving yards and 0.80+ TDs per game to opposing tight ends this year.

With Rashee Rice not practicing midweek after having Week 5 off, it's looking more likely that Jalen Royals will run as the No. 2 wide receiver Sunday vs. the Chargers. That should price Royals at 4x, not the 5.5x available Friday. The loss of Tyquan Thornton only opens up more snaps for Royals, who should see 70% of the snaps against a defense that currently has six starters listed as questionable for Sunday. It's been a couple of weeks since we've seen the Chiefs, who rank fourth in EPA/play, but with an implied team total of 25 points, Royals as a WR2 is a good look at this price.

Bills TE Dalton Kincaid has been quiet the last two games, drawing only four total targets for two receptions and 14 yards. “When we have the opportunity to get the ball in his hands, we want to do that. Obviously, we’ve got to find a way, as a coaching staff, to make that happen better than it did last night,” OC Pete Carmichael told the media after the win over the Rams. Before this drought, Kincaid has 38, 95, and 130 yards receiving. He gets back at it in Week 6, playing a Raiders defense that allows the 11th most yards to rival TEs. Kincaid’s projections all sit well beyond this total ranging from 47 to 56 receiving yards. My number comes out to 53 yards in Week 6.

At 42%, give me Christian Watson to score a touchdown for the Green Bay Packers against the Dallas Cowboys on Sunday Night Football. I price Watson closer to 48% to find the end zone, giving us a solid edge over the market. Dallas has struggled mightily against the run, and when Green Bay gets into the red zone and approaches the goal line, the Cowboys may have to stack the box to slow down the ground game. That could leave Watson isolated on the boundary, where he would only need to win his one-on-one matchup to deliver a green checkmark on this prop.

George Kittle at 46% to score a touchdown is a number I'm comfortable hitting the button on, as I price his chances closer to 51% against the Washington Commanders on Monday Night Football. Washington relies heavily on its linebackers to attack downhill and work sideline to sideline to slow down the 49ers' wide-zone runs in the red zone. That opens the door for Kyle Shanahan to use Kittle's reputation as a run blocker against the Commanders' linebackers, creating opportunities for misdirection plays that could lead to easy touchdowns.