Best NFL Picks Today

The Bills could dominate the time of possession and continue stacking preseason points tonight. Kyle Allen has protected the football, going an incredible 24-for-28 passing while being supported by a deep and productive running back stable through two games. Joe Brady's offense has totaled 60 points and put up a massive 764 yards. Some Buffalo starters could be sprinkled in, but I'll ride Allen for the majority of this game, as this is a preseason offense I have one more chance to back before things actually mean something. Drew Allar and Will Howard have combined for a 56.5% adjusted completion rate through two preseason games, while Mike McCarthy's track record in the preseason shows a coach with little motivation to win.

The Browns have struggled to score in the exhibition outings, amassing a collective 17 points in the first two games, and the bulk of gains came with Watson and Sanders under center. Neither team wants to tip their hand when it comes to their playbooks, so expect a very vanilla setup from each offense.

Dan Quinn noted Jayden Daniels will take his snaps and own a heavier workload during joint practices against the Baltimore Ravens, which suggests he won't play in Week 3 of the preseason. Meanwhile, with Lamar Jackson sidelined until the regular season, Tyler Huntley and Joe Fagnano will handle quarterback duties against the Washington Commanders — a duo I trust far more than Sam Hartman and Athan Kaliakmanis.

Kevin Stefanski said Atlanta Falcons starters will get their reps in Week 3 as a regular-season dress rehearsal, though Tua Tagovailoa is slated to play the first quarter against his old team. Behind him, Cooper Rush and Jake Strand will see playing time. The duo combined for 298 yards after going 22 of 28 passing - they might see 300-plus in this matchup.

The New York Giants will have a fair amount of offensive talent on the field Friday, including veteran wide receiver Odell Beckham Jr., who is likely to snag a roster spot. Meanwhile, the New York Jets are likely to give significant time to rookie Cade Klubnik, who has already shown the ability to move the offense, going 10-for-14 for 75 yards so far in the preseason. With offensive talent on the field and the defenses heavily rotated, I like the Over.

The Denver Broncos quarterbacks have plenty to play for, with Jarrett Stidham and Sam Ehlinger battling for QB2, while Audric Estimé, Jaleel McLaughlin and Blake Watson compete for backup RB reps. Denver has more cohesion, depth, and continuity under Sean Payton, while Minnesota faces a steeper adjustment. Add the Mile High factor, and the Broncos have a sizable edge in this preseason finale. 

Chicago has high hopes in 2026, especially after coming an OT defeat away from playing the conference championship. This is Year 2 under head coach Ben Johnson, and Williams is an MVP sleeper if he can take the Chicago Bears to the next level. The Carolina Panthers backed into the postseason last year, with five losses in their final eight games, and I’m a little surprised this spread is short of a field goal, considering Carolina went 2-5 against playoff teams.

Consistency has been scarce in Duval County, but the 2026 season sees the Jaguars with their most steady foundation in years. Head coach Liam Coen enters Year 2 with his offense intact and the Jacksonville defense builds on a Top 10 stop unit last season. The same can’t be said for Cleveland. The Browns have a new coaching staff, a mess at QB and a massive gap in the defense after trading away Myles Garrett. They’re not going to figure it all out by Week 1 and face a tough team on the road and likely some nasty Florida heat and humidity in their first full-speed game.

The Lions have led the NFL in home scoring in back-to-back seasons and are coming off a year in which they averaged 32.5 points per game in Detroit. While they should be able to do a lot of the heavy lifting to push this game Over 48.5, don't sleep on the Saints offense who made some major upgrades this offseason. Kellen Moore has been the arcitect of some great offenses on his way to becoming head coach of New Orleans. Expect his strengths to be on full display with a talented group of playmakers at his disposal.

The Texans were active in the offseason, bolstering their dog poo O-line and adding a steady rushing threat in David Montgomery. QB C.J. Stroud got the vote of confidence at QB (for at least one more year) and should improve given the better talent around him. For Buffalo, Josh Allen gets a true No. 1 receiver in D.J. Moore, who could show out in his Buffalo debut, as his career numbers spike when he plays indoors (I’ll be sniffing around his Week 1 props as well).

This should be Kyler Murray’s Minnesota Vikings debut. A lot can happen between now and Week 1 — just ask J.J. McCarthy. — and whoever wins the QB1 job might not even finish the game, considering the pass rush coming after him. The Packers were a Super Bowl contender that came apart at the seams last season, with injuries decimating their depth chart on both sides of the ball.

New Giants coach John Harbaugh blasted his team’s pass protection after QB1 Jaxson Dart was sent to the medical tent in the team’s exhibition opener (Dart was cleared of any injury). He’ll need to tighten the bolts before facing Dallas on SNF in Week 1. The Cowboys ranked tops in pressure on passers last season, leading to the No. 1 hurry rate and the second most QB hits (also allowed third most rushing yards to QBs). As a dangerous dual-threat, Dart will see his number called plenty of times in this revamped Ravens-inspired offense and will pick up bonus rushing yards as he scrambles away from pressure. 

Distractions in sports tend to be overrated, but the Kansas City Chiefs have A LOT going on headed into the new season. It's fair to question what version of Patrick Mahomes we'll get in Week 1 after tearing his ACL and LCL late last season. The fact that he's coming of a bad season (by his standards) and will be playing one of the league's top defenses adds to those concerns. Denver is coming off a season where they went 5-1 ATS as an underdog. Expect them to be ready to compete and keep this game within the number against a Chiefs team that could need time to find its footing.