Best NFL Picks Today

Marshawn Lloyd and Kaleb Johnson got the bulk of the work in Week 2 and even with LaFleur stating Johnson will see more touches, Lloyd’s downhill running style and positive projections have me taking his Over on rushing yards Thursday. The Atlanta Falcons also sit among the better run stop units, rated sixth in run stop win rate and seventh in both EPA allowed per handoff and opponent success rate per run. That said, the Falcons have been great getting to outside runners but are bullied on power pushes up the middle, rating dead last at FTN. Lloyd’s Week 3 forecasts are very positive, sitting between 45 and 57 yards. That’s well past his rushing yards market and offers value to ladder his gains on the ground (40+, 50+, and 60+).

The Cleveland Browns finished No. 6 in EPA per dropback in Week 2. Deshaun Watson had his best game in a long time despite the Bucs bringing the heat, picking up 7.0 yards per pass. Carolina has thrown on 64% of dropbacks after a shootout with Chicago and a squash of Atlanta to kick off 2026. Quarterback Bryce Young is thriving with offensive coordinator Brad Idzik calling plays. He’s Top 10 in all the fancy passing stats, including air yards. Both teams have given up plays over the top, sitting sixth and seventh in most air yards allowed. The Panthers defense looks tougher than it truly is after fattening up on the Falcons’ backup QBs in Week 2. Carolina still got gashed for 157 rushing yards from Atlanta, despite focusing their energy on stuffing the run.

Grabbing this -5.5 line before Monday Night Football because I’m expecting the Giants to hang with the Los Angeles Rams in Week 2, and New York will be an even larger home favorite over Tennessee by Sunday afternoon. The Titans were only on offense for 23:35 against the Philadelphia Eagles on Sunday, and QB Cam Ward has thrown for just 6.2 yards per attempt through two weeks. Tennessee also hits the highway for the first time in 2026, and the new-look G-Men put on an offensive clinic in their season opener at MetLife Stadium. 

I won’t discount the Jaguars too much for having a tough day in Denver. Jacksonville gets to come home for what will be its only outing in Duval County until Week 8. The Patriots looked much better than they were against the corpse of Aaron Rodgers in Week 2. New England managed just 20 points – seven coming from a defensive score – went 4-for-12 on third down and 0 for 1 in the red zone. This Jaguars defense still did a lot right against the Broncos, standing tall on third downs and inside the red zone. I’ll take the home side short of the key number of three.

The New York Jets have allowed just 4.0 yards per play, third-best in the NFL, and rank sixth in EPA per defensive play for the season. And while the Detroit Lions have given up an embarrassing 457.5 yards per game on defense, Geno Smith and the New York offense haven't shown any signs that they can even approach that kind of number. I'm backing the Under at totals as low as 47.5 points.

We have two teams that have hit the Over in three of four games this year, leading me to believe that this number is far too low. The Colts' defense is simply the worst in football so far, giving up a total of eight touchdowns through two weeks. Most of these are due to a struggling red-zone unit, which is coughing up a score 67% of the time. So what's been working for Indy? Undeniably, its offense, which is scoring at an 84% clip once they get inside the 20. While yes, the Colts are going up against one of the better defensive units in football, Houston has still allowed over 350 yards of total offense in the early parts of 2026. What does this all add up to? An Over. Play this up to 55%.

Pittsburgh takes a series step up in competition and this is no longer the Steelers we could count on under Mike Tomlin. Aaron Rodgers is done and Cincinnati is looking like the best two-way team in the NFL, after handling Houston on the road in Week 3. The Bengals have collected eight sacks in the first two games and I wouldn’t be surprised if Rodgers doesn’t make it through Week 3, given the pounding he took in New England.  Oh, and Joe Burrow is absolutely firing on all cylinders. He’s surgical versus zone coverage and will slice up Patrick Graham’s passive playcalling. I'm taking Cincy ML before this price ticks up to two bucks or higher.

We're seeing two mediocre offenses against two top-10 defenses in Week 3. The Vikings have had to play mistake-free football on both sides of the ball - their defense has allowed an average of just 12.5 points per game as a result. It's also one of the best red-zone defenses this year, allowing a touchdown on just 12% of trips inside the 20. With positive regression looming for the Bucs' defense against Murray and Co. I'm projecting this total to close closer to 40.5.

Baltimore just allowed New Orleans Saints QB Tyler Shough to throw for 7.4 yards per attempt with a 79.4 completion percentage in Week 2, and now the Ravens go up against a Dallas offense that’s fourth in both EPA per play and offensive success rate ahead of Monday Night Football in Week 2. Of course, there’s no stop on defense for the Cowboys, and the Ravens respectively check in sixth and third in the two highlighted metrics. Finally, I anticipate the trip south to Maracana Stadium to also take its toll on the two defenses in Week 3.