Seahawks @ Patriots Picks & Props

The Seahawks have the fifth-best DVOA (regular season and playoffs) since that advanced stat has been tracked back to 1978. The Patriots aren't on that level and have benefited from a weak schedule. Drake Maye has done a great job despite being surrounded by subpar talent but that's been exposed in the playoffs with New England averaging just 4.3 yards per play. Maye will be pummeled by a Seattle stop unit that led the league in defensive EPA. On other side of the ball, Sam Darnold is playing the best football of his career and is surrounded by weapons in Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Cooper Kupp, and Kenneth Walker III. They'll put up enough points to cover this spread.

Kenneth Walker has been going off in the receiving yards department in the Seattle Seahawks’ most important stretch of the season. Not only has he topped this mark in four of his last five games, he’s also proving to have a high ceiling as he’s averaging 36.8 receiving yards in this five-game span. With Zach Charbonnet out for the season, Walker will have heavy workload vs a Patriots team that allowed the sixth most receptions to running backs in the regular season.

Stevenson is coming off a 25-carry game and has been the clear focal point of the offense since Week 18. Over that four-game stretch, he has topped 320 rushing yards and cleared this number in every game, including matchups against three elite defenses. The workload is all his, with Henderson reduced to an afterthought, as Stevenson handled 90% of the RB opportunities against the Broncos. Even if Seattle sells out to stop the run, Stevenson has already proven he can move the pile versus the Chargers, Texans, and Broncos.
 
 
 

The Patriots’ run stop is healthy and shutting the door on opponent running backs in the playoffs. Mike Vrabel’s game plan will be to eliminate the Seahawks ground game and put the Super Bowl on Sam Darnold, attacking the Seahawks QB with blitzes. With Zach Charbonnet out, George Holani has stepped up as the RB2/third-down back and drew four targets for three receptions and 27 yards in the NFC title game. He now has two weeks to work within the offense and get used to the increased involvement. New England has allowed the seventh most targets and fifth receptions to RBs this season. 

Drake Maye is in a tough spot against this Seattle pass rush that can generate pressure with just a four-man rush. Henry is Maye’s pressure release in short yardage and also his best receiving option versus zone coverage, which Seattle runs at the second highest rate. Henry can also pick up yards after the catch and the Seahawks have allowed the sixth most YAC. Seattle is also giving up the fifth most targets and receptions to tight ends, panning out to the sixth most yards allowed to TEs in the NFL. Projections for Henry sit as high as 46 yards from the Patriots tight end in Super Bowl LX.

Seattle finished with the third-highest, single-season DVOA dating back to the 2018 campaign and then hung 41 and 31 points on the board in their first two playoff games while ranking first in EPA per play. New England hasn’t faced an offense as complete as the Seahawks, and the Pats have had their own offensive struggles the past three weeks with just five offensive touchdowns while ranking 10th of the 14 postseason teams in EPA per play. I’m happy to lay up to -5.5 with Seattle.

Darnold now has two weeks to heal up from oblique injury and threw the ball 36 times for 25 completions vs. Rams. Darnold has played a lot of zone-centric schemes in the last 10 games. Now faces man-heavy Pats secondary. He's No. 3 in completion % vs. man and 13th in catchable pass rate vs man (compared to 17th and 30th vs zone in those stats). Darnold has completed less than 20 passes only twice in the past seven games and one of those Unders was playing hurt against 49ers in Div Rnd.

Shaheed has been tamed by a lot of zone defenses since coming to Seattle but faces his first man-centic secondary in New England at the perfect time. He's a deep ball threat with great speed and sepration and can take the top off this Pats defense. New England will double JSN as much as it can, which leaves Shaheed in single coverage and very live to catch off a big gain. He's coming off a 51-yard reception in the NFC title game and the last time he faced a team that runs man as much as the Patriots, he went for 114 yards including an 87-yard home run.

Shaheed is a home run threat and faces a man-heavy scheme from the Patriots, which also him to utilize his speed and seperation. Seattle is also using the WR in the running game with tricky handoffs. He has options on how to get inside the end zone.

Since being traded to Seattle, Shaheed has faced only zone-heavy defenses (eight opponents rank between 1st to 15th in zone usage). He's much better vs. man coverage, which the Patriots use at the 6th highest rate. New England also allows average of 42.7 ypg to WR3. Shaheed's biggest day of the season came when the Saints played the Giants (7th in man), with 114 yards.

After the New England Patriots’ pop-gun run to the Big Game - in which their offense struggled against quality defenses - they once again find themselves against a top-tier stop unit. The Patriots have posted just 12 and 13 first downs in their last two postseason games while averaging 3.2 and 3.9 yards per play in those contests. Quarterback Drake Maye has been limited in his production while absorbing 10 total sacks. Seattle’s defense is tops in the land with a vaunted pass rush that ranked among the best in the NFL in pressure rate, sacks, QB hits, and hurries despite blitzing at one of the lowest rates. On top of that, the Seahawks offense has been humming in the tournament, torching the 49ers for 41 points and hanging 31 points on the Rams. New England hasn’t faced a team this complete… well, all season.