Kupp was +310 to score a TD last week and while he didn't find the end zone he led Seattle with five receptions for 60 yards. Kupp had 12 red-zone targets during the regular season, with eight of those coming in the final six weeks after Tory Horton suffered a season-ending injury. Kupp was targeted once in the red zone last week but RB Kenneth Walker III carried the scoring with three rushing TDs. The Rams allowed just six rushing TDs during the regular season — the third-lowest number in the league. However, they ranked 19th in passing TDs allowed (26) and with their secondary focused on Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Kupp could get softer coverage.
Colby Parkinson went off during the second half of the season. He has logged 25+ receiving yards in eight of the last nine weeks, averaging 41.7 receiving yards per game over that span. Parkinson's ascent was partially due to a six-game absence for Tyler Higbee but he has continued to see a high target share with Higbee back in the lineup. In the divisional round, Parkinson out-snapped Higbee 53-8 and reeled in three of seven targets for 57 yards. The Seahawks have a stingy defense but are vulnerable against tight ends ranking 27th in the league in receiving yards per game (63.3) allowed to the position.
Seattle's stop unit has been elite against the run, ranking first in the league in defensive rush EPA and success rate. If the Rams want to move the ball in this game, they'll have to do it through the air. Thankfully, they have MVP favorite and former Super Bowl champion Matthew Stafford under center. Stafford has thrown at least 38 passes in each of his last six games. That includes Week 16 at Lumen Field when he completed 29 of 49 passes (43 in regulation) for 457 yards.
Home field and superior defense goes a long way in the playoffs, especially with a road-weary Rams team traveling to Lumen Field. Seattle can run the ball against a Rams stop unit showing cracks. We’ve seen L.A. get pushed around on the ground, and even with Charbonnet out, Seattle’s offensive line is powering this offense. Seattle plays keep-away from Stafford, makes L.A. go pass-heavy and one-dimensional, and wins outright.
Walker rumbled for 116 yards and three TDs in the divisional round. He rushed for 1027 yards on 221 carries during the regular season and that was with Zach Charbonnet cutting into his touches with 184 carries. With Charbonnet tearing his ACL against the 49ers, Walker's usage should soar. The Rams have struggled against the run lately, surrendered 160 rushing yards to Chicago last week and getting gashed for 219 yards on the ground in Week 17 against Atlanta. When these teams previously clashed in Week 16, Walker rushed for 100 yards on just 11 carries with Charbonnet adding another 32 yards on nine rush attempts.
Walker no longer shares RZ snaps with Charbonnet, who's out with a knee injury. He scored three touchdowns in the Divisional Round, found the end zone in both games with L.A. earlier (one of which Charbonnet also scored), and has an offensive line getting great push in front of him. Two TDs is not that big an ask from Walker on Championship Sunday.
With Charbonnet out, the Seahawks’ season-long shell game at RB now has only one option in the red zone. Walker had three TDs versus the 49ers and faces a Rams defense that has been pushed around on the ground in the back third of the season and allowed Walker to score a TD in both meetings with Seattle this season. It's juicy for a reason, so shop for the lowest price.
Kupp caught all five passes his way for 60 yards in the Divisional Round. That was his second most targets in the past eight games and a significant share, since QB Sam Darnold attempted only 17 passes. Darnold is limited with an oblique injury, which hampers his downfield strength. Kupp is a shifty slot receiver specializing in short yardage. In his heyday, he was the elite zone buster and faces just that from L.A. He went for 39 yards in their Week 16 meeting. Kupp’s projections sit north of 29.5 receiving yards with a ceiling as high as 44 yards.
The Rams leaned into 11 personnel at a season-high 90% last week, yet Colby Parkinson still dominated the tight end usage. He ran the bulk of the routes and finished with as many targets as the rest of the TE room combined, while Tyler Higbee played just 10% of the snaps. Since Higbee returned, Parkinson has clearly emerged as the TE1, drawing 17 targets over the last three games and scoring three touchdowns in that span. Even in a WR-heavy setup, the role and red-zone usage are firmly in Parkinson’s favor.
The Rams leaned on 11 personnel at a season-high 90% last week, which might seem like a concern for Colby Parkinson, but Tyler Higbee played just 10% of the snaps while Parkinson saw seven targets. Combined, Rams tight ends accounted for a massive 33% target share. Since Higbee returned three games ago, Parkinson has 17 targets and at least 34 yards in every game with no real dip in snaps despite the personnel shift. His long gains of 35, 19, 21, 16, 16, and 26 yards show big-play upside, and averaging 5.8 targets over his last six gives him chances to top this on short and high volume.
Barner actually saw more action as a rusher than receiver in the Divisional Round. He drew zero targets but got one carry for two yards as a short yardage option. The Seahawks' version of the "Tush Push" is named the "Barn Yard", with Barner collecting 10 carries during the regular season, including three attempts in two games with the Rams. With Zach Charbonnet out, the Seahawks could call upon Barner more as a ball carrier - especially in short yardage as to not wear down or injure RB Kenneth Walker. Projections give Barner around 3.5 yards rushing on one carry this Sunday.
Seattle has used the speedster as a running option a lot since picking him up at the trade deadline, including two runs for 27 yards against the 49ers last week. With the injury to RB Zach Charbonnet, the Seahawks need to find other ways to run the ball, beside Kenneth Walker. Shaheed will be that option. He averages just under eight yards per carry and some projections are at 11+ yards on the ground.
With Charbonnet out, Shaheed could see an increased involvement in the run game. Seattle has used the receiver as a rusher quiet a bit since acquiring him at the trade deadline, including two runs last weekend. On top of that, he’s a home run threat in the pass game and the Rams secondary has been gashed for big gains in the backend of the schedule.
Rarely have we seen Stafford’s TD pass total shorter than 1.5. In fact the only time in the last 10 games for Stafford in which his TD pass total was this low was against Seattle in Week 16. He threw three touchdowns in that wild overtime game, had two in the Week 11 matchup with Seattle. Projections for Stafford sit as high as two touchdowns. This is a taller total, especially for a playoff game be hosted by the superior defense. Negative game script says Rams playing from behind and Stafford leads that charge.
Walker destroyed Los Angeles in the regular season, raking up totals of 64 and 44 receiving yards. This is an area where the Rams have struggled as they allowed the fifth most receiving yards to RBs during the regular season. Expect extra snaps for Walker with Zach Charbonnet out for the season with a torn ACL.
There isn't much separating these teams, with Seattle finishing the regular season with the best DVOA in the league and L.A. in second. These NFC West foes split the season series, with the Rams losing a close game at Lumen Field and winning by two at home. This should be another tight contest, which has me leaning toward the side with the better quarterback (Matthew Stafford) and coach (Sean McVay) at plus money.
With this spread Under the key number of 3, I’m siding with Seattle. The Seahawks posted the third-highest, single-season DVOA dating back to the 2018 campaign, and earning the No. 1 seed in the NFC has their roster better rested and healthier than the Rams. Los Angeles will also be travelling for a third consecutive game and the fifth time in six weeks.
Seattle had success running the ball in both games, picking up 139 yards on 35 carries in Week 11 and rushing for 171 yards on just 25 attempts in Week 16. Los Angeles just allowed 160 yards on the ground from 39 carries by Chicago.
If Seattle QB Sam Darnold is still nursing an oblique injury on Sunday, the Seahawks could see their passing plays shortened and an emphasis on the rushing attack. That keeps gains shorter with continuous clock ticking away.
The Rams’ offensive success against Seattle in those two contests was helped along by a slew of turnovers. The Seahawks coughed the ball up a collective seven times in those matchups – six coming via interceptions.
Takeaways are tough to replicate with high variance, especially if Seattle can keep its offense simple and ground centric. That allows the Seahawks to control possession and feeds into the best defense in the NFC.
The leading projections forecast this game to see the highest number of plays run among all games this week at 131.4 plays, accounting for the traits of each team and game dynamics.. The weatherman calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, and reduced ground volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.. With a remarkable 26.2% Red Zone Target Rate (96th percentile) this year, Jaxon Smith-Njigba places among the wideouts with the most usage near the end zone in football.. Jaxon Smith-Njigba has put up significantly more air yards this season (105.0 per game) than he did last season (73.0 per game).. Jaxon Smith-Njigba's 86.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that assesses high-value offensive volume) has been significantly higher this season than it was last season at 57.6.
The leading projections forecast this game to see the highest number of plays run among all games this week at 131.4 plays, accounting for the traits of each team and game dynamics.. The weatherman calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, and reduced ground volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.. Sam Darnold is positioned as one of the most on-target QBs in the league this year with a stellar 68.0% Adjusted Completion%, grading out in the 84th percentile.
The leading projections forecast this game to see the highest number of plays run among all games this week at 131.4 plays, accounting for the traits of each team and game dynamics.. The weatherman calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, and reduced ground volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.
The leading projections forecast this game to see the highest number of plays run among all games this week at 131.4 plays, accounting for the traits of each team and game dynamics.. The weatherman calls for 4-mph wind in this game. Low wind usually means increased pass volume, and reduced ground volume, increased TD potential, and better passing effectiveness.. Sam Darnold is positioned as one of the most on-target QBs in the league this year with a stellar 68.0% Adjusted Completion%, grading out in the 84th percentile.. Sam Darnold is positioned as one of the most efficient quarterbacks in the league this year, averaging a remarkable 8.23 adjusted yards-per-target while checking in at the 94th percentile.
Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, our trusted projections expect the Los Angeles Rams to pass on 64.6% of their downs: the greatest frequency among all teams this week.. The leading projections forecast this game to see the most plays run on the slate this week at 131.4 plays, accounting for the tendencies of each team and game dynamics.. The air attacks of both teams (including both volume and efficiency) figure to benefit from the calm weather conditions (4-mph wind) being projected in this game, while run volume may suffer.. The Seattle Seahawks defense has been something of pass funnel this year, compelling opposing offenses to attempt the 4th-most passes in the NFL (34.1 per game) this year.. With an impressive tally of 244.0 adjusted passing yards per game (98th percentile), Matthew Stafford ranks as one of the best quarterbacks in the NFL this year.
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