Jauan Jennings has scored in seven of his last eight games, including five in a row, and has six touchdowns in his last five games.
Both he and Christian McCaffrey rank in the Top 10 in red zone targets. But he's scored seven times from just 11 catches inside the 20. And with CMC and George Kittle occupying the focus of defenders, he should get a couple one-on-one matchups from which to capitalize.
Zach Charbonnet has split carries with Kenneth Walker III, but not when it comes to the red zone. Charbonnet ranks seventh in the NFL in both carries and touchdowns from inside the 10-yard line, and has three touchdown runs in his last two games.
The 49ers gave up two rushing touchdowns to the Bears a week ago, and rank 21st in EPA/rush. They also will have to key on Jaxon Smith-Njigba and AJ Barner, opening up a bit more room for the back to operate.
Charbonnet has touchdowns in four of his last six games and will be called upon yet again to cash in near the goal line.
The Seahawks face the 49ers on Saturday night with the No. 1 seed in the NFC on the line. Jaxon Smith-Njigba is the odds-on favorite to win the Offensive Player of the Year Award and I'm expecting him to get fed the ball in this crucial game. The third-year wideout leads the NFL in receiving yards (1709) and ranks fourth in receptions (113). San Fran is 24th in the league in defensive dropback EPA and 26th in receptions allowed to wide receivers (195). JSN has snagged at least eight receptions in 10 of 16 games this year, including the season opener against the Niners when he reeled in nine of 13 targets.
With everything on the line, Seattle isn’t going to get creative, especially near the goal line, where Zach Charbonnet has taken over. I’d be interested in Kenneth Walker at 30 cents longer, but the reality is Charbonnet is matching him in overall touches while completely dominating the red-zone work. Last week, Charbonnet handled six of the seven red-zone carries, and over the last three games, he has taken 10 of the team’s 11 red-zone rushes. He’s turned that volume into three touchdowns and 23 yards, while Walker has just two yards and no scores on his opportunities. At this usage, Charbonnet is playable up to +110.
The 49ers edged the Seahawks in the season opener, but a lot has changed since. The 49ers lost their two best defenders to season-ending injuries, and Sam Darnold has developed chemistry with his new teammates. The 49ers have an explosive offense, but have struggled on defense. They are 24th in the league in defensive dropback success rate while ranking 31st in defensive rush success rate. Meanwhile, Seattle is fifth in defensive dropback success rate and third in success rate against the run. The Seahawks also have a strong offense that ranks second in the league with 29.4 ppg. Back the more balanced team to take this game and the No. 1 seed in the NFC.
The Niners have won six straight games, prompted by the play of quarterback Brock Purdy. He’s back to being one of the most efficient arms in the NFL, ranking Top 2 in many advanced passer metrics since returning to the fray in Week 11.
Purdy is playing at an extremely high level the last three games, hovering around 300 passing yards in each outing, completing 72% of attempts, and tallying 11 passing touchdowns to two interceptions. He’s also rushed for 83 yards and two TDs in those showings.
Granted, those stats do come against some less-than-stingy defenses, but I feel much more confident in Purdy’s passing than I do with Sam Darnold right now. The Seahawks QB has shown flashes of why he’s far from elite in recent weeks, especially when it comes to ill-advised throws (four INTs the last four games).
The Seahawks defense has been a prominent pass funnel this year, allowing opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 4th-most passes in the league (38.3 per game) this year.. With an extraordinary 25.6% Red Zone Target Share (100th percentile) this year, Christian McCaffrey places as one of the pass-catching RBs with the most usage near the end zone in football.. Christian McCaffrey has posted a whopping 21.0 air yards per game this year: 100th percentile when it comes to running backs. (That may not seem like a lot, but most RBs average negative air yards because they are often targeted behind the line of scrimmage).
The San Francisco 49ers defense has been a prominent pass funnel this year, eliciting opposing offenses to attempt the 8th-most passes in the league (36.2 per game) this year.. As it relates to air yards, Zach Charbonnet grades out in the towering 90th percentile among running backs this year, accumulating an impressive 2.0 per game. (due to most of their targets being behind the line of scrimmage, that is far more remarkable than it appears since most RBs average negative air yards).. This year, the poor 49ers pass defense has been gouged for a whopping 87.8% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing running backs: the 4th-highest rate in the league.. This year, the fierce San Francisco 49ers run defense has surrendered a measly 0.75 touchdowns on the ground per game to opposing offenses: the 7th-smallest rate in football.
The Seattle Seahawks feature a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak, and our trusted projections expect their pass/run mix to lean 7.5% more towards rushing than it did last year (in a neutral context).. Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Seattle Seahawks to pass on 53.7% of their chances: the 6th-lowest clip on the slate this week.. The projections expect the Seahawks offense to be the 7th-slowest paced team in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the present time, averaging 28.90 seconds per snap.
The predictive model expects the 49ers offense to be the 8th-most sluggish paced team in football (context-neutralized) at the moment, averaging 28.78 seconds per snap.. The weatherman calls for 16-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.. This year, the daunting Seahawks defense has given up a puny 67.2% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing QBs: the 7th-smallest rate in the NFL.
The predictive model expects the 49ers offense to be the 8th-most sluggish paced team in football (context-neutralized) at the moment, averaging 28.78 seconds per snap.. The weatherman calls for 16-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.. This year, the daunting Seahawks defense has given up a puny 67.2% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing QBs: the 7th-smallest rate in the NFL.
The predictive model expects the 49ers offense to be the 8th-most sluggish paced team in football (context-neutralized) at the moment, averaging 28.78 seconds per snap.. The weatherman calls for 16-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.. Brock Purdy has thrown for significantly fewer adjusted yards per game (215.0) this season than he did last season (258.0).
The Seattle Seahawks feature a new play-caller this year in offensive coordinator Klint Kubiak, and our trusted projections expect their pass/run mix to lean 7.5% more towards rushing than it did last year (in a neutral context).. Based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics, the predictive model expects the Seattle Seahawks to pass on 53.7% of their chances: the 6th-lowest clip on the slate this week.. The projections expect the Seahawks offense to be the 7th-slowest paced team in the NFL (context-neutralized) at the present time, averaging 28.90 seconds per snap.
Given their underlying traits and game dynamics, the 49ers are expected by the predictive model to run 65.6 total plays in this game: the 10th-most on the slate this week.. The 9th-highest number of plays in the league have been called by the San Francisco 49ers this year (a staggering 59.3 per game on average).. The Seahawks defense has been a prominent pass funnel this year, allowing opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 4th-most passes in the league (38.3 per game) this year.
The Seahawks defense has been a prominent pass funnel this year, allowing opposing quarterbacks to attempt the 4th-most passes in the league (38.3 per game) this year.. This week, Jauan Jennings is expected by the model to find himself in the 89th percentile when it comes to wideouts with 7.7 targets.
The predictive model expects the 49ers offense to be the 8th-most sluggish paced team in football (context-neutralized) at the moment, averaging 28.78 seconds per snap.. The weatherman calls for 16-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means reduced pass volume (and increased run volume) and decreased passing efficiency.. George Kittle has notched substantially fewer adjusted receiving yards per game (53.0) this season than he did last season (76.0).
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