Ben Skowronek Score a Touchdown Props • Pittsburgh
B. Skowronek
wide receiver WR • Pittsburgh
Steelers @ Browns Picks & Props
PIT vs CLE Picks
NFL Picks
MoneyLine
CLE (+146)
Sam Farley
Betting Analyst
The Browns have given up the second-fewest scrimmage yards per game (277.8), have the third-most sacks, and have the soon-to-be DMVP in Myles Garrett.
They’ve improved on offense, too, with Shedeur Sanders, averaging 16.6 points per game, only marginally more than the 15.8 they average without him.
However, you have to take their current injuries into account, and they pass the eye test a lot more with Sanders at QB.
He might not be the long-term answer, but he’s solid enough to get the Browns and their excellent defense across the line on home soil.
Score a Touchdown
Jaylen Warren Score a Touchdown (Yes: +220)
Josh Inglis
Betting Analyst
Make this price make sense. Warren is coming off a two-touchdown performance with 143 rushing yards against Detroit, continues to handle the majority of the workload, and owns the red-zone carries. He was priced as short as +110 for a TD just two games ago, and this number sits roughly 70 cents longer than where he closed last week. The matchup only strengthens the case. Cleveland isn’t a dominant offense capable of forcing negative game script, and the Browns were just gashed by James Cook for 117 yards and two scores on 16 carries. With plenty on the line for Pittsburgh and DK Metcalf sidelined, the Steelers may lean even more on Warren, who has been their most reliable offensive weapon entering Week 17. Even at +150, this would still be worth a bet.
Total
o34.5 (-112)
Sam Farley
Betting Analyst
The Over is 5-2 in games in which the Steelers are the road team and with such a low total, we can see both teams score enough to cover.
Passing Attempts
Aaron Rodgers o29.5 Passing Attempts (+108)
Projection 33.38 (Over)
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 5 out of 5
Based on the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is expected by the predictive model to have 132.7 total plays called: the 3rd-most among all games this week.
Passing Yards
Aaron Rodgers o184.5 Passing Yards (-110)
Projection 191.92 (Over)
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Based on the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this game is expected by the predictive model to have 132.7 total plays called: the 3rd-most among all games this week.. The Pittsburgh O-line ranks as the 7th-best in football this year in pass protection, which has a strong effect on all passing attack statistics across the board.. Aaron Rodgers's 67.2% Adjusted Completion% this season indicates a significant boost in his throwing precision over last season's 63.8% rate.
Interceptions Thrown
Shedeur Sanders u0.5 Interceptions Thrown (+154)
Projection 0.42 (Under)
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 5 out of 5
The weather report calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.. When talking about protecting the passer (and the ramifications it has on all air attack metrics), the O-line of the Browns profiles as the worst in football this year.. When it comes to cornerbacks in pass coverage, Pittsburgh's group of CBs has been one of the most skilled this year, ranking as the 2nd-best in football.
Receiving Yards
Harold Fannin Jr. o46.5 Receiving Yards (-110)
Projection 53.63 (Over)
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 5 out of 5
At a -3-point disadvantage, the Browns are underdogs in this week's contest, suggesting more of a focus on passing than their standard game plan.. The predictive model expects this game to see the 3rd-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 132.7 plays, based on the traits of each team and game dynamics.. Opposing offenses have averaged 39.1 pass attempts per game versus the Pittsburgh Steelers defense this year: 3rd-most in football.. This year, the poor Pittsburgh Steelers defense has surrendered a monstrous 70.0 adjusted receiving yards per game versus opposing tight ends: the 2nd-worst in football.. The Pittsburgh Steelers pass defense has given up the highest Adjusted Completion% in football (81.9%) to tight ends this year (81.9%).
Rushing Yards
Shedeur Sanders o12.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
Projection 17.16 (Over)
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 5 out of 5
The predictive model expects this game to see the 3rd-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 132.7 plays, based on the traits of each team and game dynamics.. The weather report calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.
Rushing Yards
Dylan Sampson o41.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
Projection 48.94 (Over)
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 5 out of 5
The predictive model expects this game to see the 3rd-largest volume of plays run on the slate this week at 132.7 plays, based on the traits of each team and game dynamics.. The weather report calls for 12-mph wind in this game. High wind generally means lower pass volume (and increased run volume) and lessened passing efficiency.
PIT vs CLE Consensus Picks
PIT vs CLE Props
Player
Prop
Season Avg.
Best Odds
Kenneth Gainwell Score a Touchdown Props • Pittsburgh
K. Gainwell
running back RB • Pittsburgh
Jamari Thrash Score a Touchdown Props • Cleveland
J. Thrash
wide receiver WR • Cleveland
Roman Wilson Score a Touchdown Props • Pittsburgh
R. Wilson
wide receiver WR • Pittsburgh
Blake Whiteheart Score a Touchdown Props • Cleveland
B. Whiteheart
tight end TE • Cleveland
Jonnu Smith Score a Touchdown Props • Pittsburgh
J. Smith
tight end TE • Pittsburgh
Trayveon Williams Score a Touchdown Props • Cleveland
T. Williams
running back RB • Cleveland
Scotty Miller Score a Touchdown Props • Pittsburgh
S. Miller
wide receiver WR • Pittsburgh
Dylan Sampson Score a Touchdown Props • Cleveland
D. Sampson
running back RB • Cleveland
Gage Larvadain Score a Touchdown Props • Cleveland
G. Larvadain
wide receiver WR • Cleveland
Cedric Tillman Score a Touchdown Props • Cleveland
C. Tillman
wide receiver WR • Cleveland
Shedeur Sanders Score a Touchdown Props • Cleveland
S. Sanders
quarterback QB • Cleveland
David Njoku Score a Touchdown Props • Cleveland
D. Njoku
tight end TE • Cleveland
Kaleb Johnson Score a Touchdown Props • Pittsburgh
K. Johnson
running back RB • Pittsburgh
Jaylen Warren Score a Touchdown Props • Pittsburgh
J. Warren
running back RB • Pittsburgh
Jerry Jeudy Score a Touchdown Props • Cleveland
J. Jeudy
wide receiver WR • Cleveland
Adam Thielen Score a Touchdown Props • Pittsburgh
A. Thielen
wide receiver WR • Pittsburgh
Darnell Washington Score a Touchdown Props • Pittsburgh
D. Washington
tight end TE • Pittsburgh
Pat Freiermuth Score a Touchdown Props • Pittsburgh
P. Freiermuth
tight end TE • Pittsburgh
Marquez Valdes-Scantling Score a Touchdown Props • Pittsburgh
M. Valdes-Scantling
wide receiver WR • Pittsburgh
Harold Fannin Jr. Score a Touchdown Props • Cleveland
H. Fannin Jr.
tight end TE • Cleveland
Aaron Rodgers Score a Touchdown Props • Pittsburgh
A. Rodgers
quarterback QB • Pittsburgh
Brenden Bates Score a Touchdown Props • Cleveland
B. Bates
tight end TE • Cleveland
Malachi Corley Score a Touchdown Props • Cleveland
M. Corley
wide receiver WR • Cleveland
Connor Heyward Score a Touchdown Props • Pittsburgh
C. Heyward
tight end TE • Pittsburgh
Calvin Austin III Score a Touchdown Props • Pittsburgh
C. Austin III
wide receiver WR • Pittsburgh
Raheim Sanders Score a Touchdown Props • Cleveland
R. Sanders
running back RB • Cleveland
PIT vs CLE Trends
Pittsburgh Trends
The Pittsburgh Steelers have hit the 4Q Game Total Over in 14 of their last 18 games (+9.40 Units / 45% ROI)
The Pittsburgh Steelers have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 12 of their last 18 games (+8.25 Units / 36% ROI)
The Pittsburgh Steelers have hit the Team Total Over in 6 of their last 10 away games (+1.55 Units / 14% ROI)
The Pittsburgh Steelers have hit the 2Q Game Total Over in 7 of their last 8 away games (+5.90 Units / 67% ROI)
The Pittsburgh Steelers have hit the 1H Moneyline in 12 of their last 20 games (+5.86 Units / 23% ROI)
PIT
CLE
The Pittsburgh Steelers have covered the 2Q Spread in 12 of their last 18 games (+5.40 Units / 26% ROI)
The Pittsburgh Steelers have only hit the 4Q Game Total Under in 4 of their last 18 games (-12.40 Units / -59% ROI)
The Pittsburgh Steelers have only hit the 1H Game Total Over in 7 of their last 20 games (-6.95 Units / -30% ROI)
Over
Under
The Pittsburgh Steelers have only hit the 1H Team Total Under in 3 of their last 9 away games (-4.00 Units / -38% ROI)
The Pittsburgh Steelers have only covered the 4Q Spread in 8 of their last 18 games (-4.00 Units / -19% ROI)
The Pittsburgh Steelers have only covered the 2H Spread in 8 of their last 18 games (-3.80 Units / -18% ROI)
PIT
CLE
Cleveland Trends
The Cleveland Browns have covered the 1H Spread in 7 of their last 10 games at home (+3.45 Units / 30% ROI)
PIT
CLE
The Cleveland Browns have covered the 2Q Spread in 7 of their last 9 games at home (+5.90 Units / 57% ROI)
The Cleveland Browns have hit the 2Q Moneyline in 6 of their last 9 games at home (+5.75 Units / 55% ROI)
The Cleveland Browns have hit the 1H Team Total Over in 8 of their last 10 games at home (+5.60 Units / 44% ROI)
The Cleveland Browns have hit the 1H Game Total Over in 7 of their last 10 games at home (+3.65 Units / 32% ROI)
Over
Under
The Cleveland Browns have only covered the 2H Spread in 5 of their last 17 games (-8.75 Units / -45% ROI)
PIT
CLE
The Cleveland Browns have only hit the 1H Team Total Under in 2 of their last 10 games at home (-6.95 Units / -60% ROI)
The Cleveland Browns have only hit the 2H Game Total Over in 1 of their last 8 games at home (-6.22 Units / -65% ROI)
Over
Under
The Cleveland Browns have only covered the Spread in 8 of their last 20 games (-5.15 Units / -24% ROI)
PIT
CLE
The Cleveland Browns have only hit the 1Q Moneyline in 4 of their last 18 games (-5.10 Units / -24% ROI)
PIT
CLE