Texans @ Chargers Picks & Props

Our trusted projections expect the Los Angeles Chargers to be the 7th-most pass-heavy offense in the league (in a neutral context) right now with a 63.2% pass rate. The weather forecast calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, and lower ground volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency. The Houston Texans safeties project as the 7th-best unit in football this year with their run defense.

Our trusted projections expect the Los Angeles Chargers to be the 7th-most pass-heavy offense in the league (in a neutral context) right now with a 63.2% pass rate. The weather forecast calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, and lower ground volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency.

Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Houston Texans to pass on 58.5% of their plays: the 10th-highest rate among all teams this week. With respect to a defense's effect on tempo, at 27.32 seconds per play, our trusted projections expect the Texans as the 2nd-fastest in the league (adjusted for context) right now. Still weather conditions (like the 0-mph wind being called for in this game) generally correlate with increased passing efficiency, increased touchdown potential, increased air volume, and reduced run volume. With a top-tier 25.7% Red Zone Target Rate (94th percentile) this year, Nico Collins stands as one of the WRs with the biggest workloads near the goal line in football. Nico Collins has totaled quite a few more air yards this year (107.0 per game) than he did last year (102.0 per game).

Our trusted projections expect the Los Angeles Chargers to be the 7th-most pass-heavy offense in the league (in a neutral context) right now with a 63.2% pass rate. The weather forecast calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, and lower ground volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency. This year, the daunting Texans run defense has conceded a measly 0.73 rushing TDs per game to opposing offenses: the 7th-smallest rate in the league. The Houston Texans safeties project as the 7th-best unit in football this year with their run defense.

Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Houston Texans to pass on 58.5% of their plays: the 10th-highest rate among all teams this week. With respect to a defense's effect on tempo, at 27.32 seconds per play, our trusted projections expect the Texans as the 2nd-fastest in the league (adjusted for context) right now. Still weather conditions (like the 0-mph wind being called for in this game) generally correlate with increased passing efficiency, increased touchdown potential, increased air volume, and reduced run volume.

Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Houston Texans to pass on 58.5% of their plays: the 10th-highest rate among all teams this week. With respect to a defense's effect on tempo, at 27.32 seconds per play, our trusted projections expect the Texans as the 2nd-fastest in the league (adjusted for context) right now. Still weather conditions (like the 0-mph wind being called for in this game) generally correlate with increased passing efficiency, increased touchdown potential, increased air volume, and reduced run volume. Dalton Schultz has been a key part of his team's passing attack near the goal line, posting a Red Zone Target Share of 14.7% this year, which places him in the 76th percentile when it comes to TEs. Dalton Schultz has accrued a monstrous 42.0 air yards per game this year: 92nd percentile among TEs.

Based on their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the model projects the Houston Texans to pass on 58.5% of their plays: the 10th-highest rate among all teams this week. With respect to a defense's effect on tempo, at 27.32 seconds per play, our trusted projections expect the Texans as the 2nd-fastest in the league (adjusted for context) right now. Still weather conditions (like the 0-mph wind being called for in this game) generally correlate with increased passing efficiency, increased touchdown potential, increased air volume, and reduced run volume. C.J. Stroud's 64.0% Adjusted Completion% this year conveys a noteworthy growth in his passing accuracy over last year's 61.0% rate. The running touchdown line reads "0" on C.J. Stroud's player page this year.

Our trusted projections expect the Los Angeles Chargers to be the 7th-most pass-heavy offense in the league (in a neutral context) right now with a 63.2% pass rate. The weather forecast calls for 0-mph wind in this game. Low wind generally means higher pass volume, and lower ground volume, higher TD potential, and increased passing efficiency. With an exceptional ratio of 1.56 per game (86th percentile), Justin Herbert stands among the best touchdown passers in football this year.