Saints @ Buccaneers Picks & Props
NO vs TB Picks
NFL Picks
There’s a sizable gap in Mayfield’s numbers at Raymond James Stadium and the highway, with the veteran averaging 249 yards per game and 7.6 yards per target at home compared to respective 193.6 and 6.0 marks on the road. This is also the lowest passing yards total for Mayfield since the beginning of the 2024 campaign, and there’s nothing scary about the New Orleans pass defense. The Saints have allowed the eighth-highest yards per attempt and 11th-highest EPA per dropback while ranking 22nd in pass defense DVOA, after all.
The Saints have a clear problem: they can’t run the ball. Alvin Kamara is questionable for this week, and Devin Neal didn’t exactly take control of the backfield, managing just 47 yards on 14 carries against Miami. The real takeaway from that game was the emergence of Devaughn Vele, who’s starting to break out in his second season and with his second team. Vele has 11 catches on 15 targets over the last two weeks and found the end zone on one of his two red-zone looks. Now he gets a Tampa defense that is one of only eight teams allowing fewer than 100 rushing yards per game, meaning the Saints will likely have to lean on the pass again — even if Kamara returns. Vele is functioning as a true WR2 with WR1 upside and could easily lead this game in receiving yards if New Orleans is forced into a pass-heavy script. I’d play his number down to +270.