PIT 6.0 o43.0
BAL -6.0 u43.0
SEA -7.0 o44.5
ATL 7.0 u44.5
TEN 3.5 o34.0
CLE -3.5 u34.0
MIA -2.5 o41.5
NYJ 2.5 u41.5
NO 8.0 o41.5
TB -8.0 u41.5
IND -2.0 o47.0
JAC 2.0 u47.0
WAS -1.5 o44.0
MIN 1.5 u44.0
CIN 6.0 o53.0
BUF -6.0 u53.0
DEN -7.5 o40.0
LV 7.5 u40.0
CHI 7.0 o44.5
GB -7.0 u44.5
LA -8.5 o47.5
ARI 8.5 u47.5
HOU 3.5 o41.5
KC -3.5 u41.5
PHI -2.5 o41.5
LAC 2.5 u41.5
Final Dec 4
DAL 30 4.0 o55.0
DET 44 -4.0 u55.0
Saints 4th NFC South2-10
Buccaneers 1st NFC South7-5

Saints @ Buccaneers Picks & Props

NO vs TB Picks

NFL Picks
Passing Yards
Baker Mayfield logo Baker Mayfield o216.5 Passing Yards (-114)
Best Odds
Pick made: yesterday
Neil Parker image
Neil Parker
Betting Analyst

There’s a sizable gap in Mayfield’s numbers at Raymond James Stadium and the highway, with the veteran averaging 249 yards per game and 7.6 yards per target at home compared to respective 193.6 and 6.0 marks on the road. This is also the lowest passing yards total for Mayfield since the beginning of the 2024 campaign, and there’s nothing scary about the New Orleans pass defense. The Saints have allowed the eighth-highest yards per attempt and 11th-highest EPA per dropback while ranking 22nd in pass defense DVOA, after all.

Touchdowns
Devaughn Vele logo Devaughn Vele o0.5 Touchdowns (+350)
Best Odds
Pick made: yesterday
Josh Inglis image
Josh Inglis
Betting Analyst

The Saints have a clear problem: they can’t run the ball. Alvin Kamara is questionable for this week, and Devin Neal didn’t exactly take control of the backfield, managing just 47 yards on 14 carries against Miami. The real takeaway from that game was the emergence of Devaughn Vele, who’s starting to break out in his second season and with his second team. Vele has 11 catches on 15 targets over the last two weeks and found the end zone on one of his two red-zone looks. Now he gets a Tampa defense that is one of only eight teams allowing fewer than 100 rushing yards per game, meaning the Saints will likely have to lean on the pass again — even if Kamara returns. Vele is functioning as a true WR2 with WR1 upside and could easily lead this game in receiving yards if New Orleans is forced into a pass-heavy script. I’d play his number down to +270.

Passing Completions
Tyler Shough logo
Tyler Shough u20.5 Passing Completions (+100)
Projection 18.21 (Under)
Best Odds
Pick made: 18 hours ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
At the moment, the 3rd-least pass-heavy offense in the NFL (56.7% in a neutral context) according to the model is the Saints.. The Buccaneers safeties grade out as the best unit in the NFL this year in covering receivers.
Passing Attempts
Tyler Shough logo
Tyler Shough u33.5 Passing Attempts (-105)
Projection 31.53 (Under)
Best Odds
Pick made: yesterday
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
Passing Yards
Tyler Shough logo
Tyler Shough u219.5 Passing Yards (-110)
Projection 186.18 (Under)
Best Odds
Pick made: 12 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 5 out of 5
At the moment, the 3rd-least pass-heavy offense in the NFL (56.7% in a neutral context) according to the model is the Saints.. The Buccaneers safeties grade out as the best unit in the NFL this year in covering receivers.
Interceptions Thrown
Tyler Shough logo
Tyler Shough u0.5 Interceptions Thrown (+130)
Projection 0.41 (Under)
Best Odds
Pick made: 12 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 5 out of 5
At the moment, the 3rd-least pass-heavy offense in the NFL (56.7% in a neutral context) according to the model is the Saints.. The Buccaneers have intercepted 0.94 balls per game this year, grading out as the 5th-best defense in football by this metric.. The Buccaneers safeties grade out as the best unit in the NFL this year in covering receivers.
Receiving Yards
Emeka Egbuka logo
Emeka Egbuka o52.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
Projection 64.8 (Over)
Best Odds
Pick made: 2 hours ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 5 out of 5
Given the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is expected by the predictive model to have 130.9 offensive plays called: the 5th-most out of all the games this week.. In regards to protecting the passer (and the positive impact it has on all passing game metrics), the offensive line of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers ranks as the 10th-best in the league this year.. When it comes to safeties in defending pass-catchers, New Orleans's unit has been very bad this year, grading out as the 7th-worst in the NFL.
Receiving Yards
Cade Otton logo
Cade Otton o26.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
Projection 31.95 (Over)
Best Odds
Pick made: 17 hours ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 5 out of 5
Given the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is expected by the predictive model to have 130.9 offensive plays called: the 5th-most out of all the games this week.. The predictive model expects Cade Otton to earn 4.8 targets in this contest, on balance, ranking him in the 77th percentile when it comes to TEs.. In regards to protecting the passer (and the positive impact it has on all passing game metrics), the offensive line of the Tampa Bay Buccaneers ranks as the 10th-best in the league this year.. This year, the porous Saints defense has given up the 10th-most adjusted yards-per-target in football to opposing tight ends: a staggering 7.93 yards.. When it comes to safeties in defending pass-catchers, New Orleans's unit has been very bad this year, grading out as the 7th-worst in the NFL.
Receiving Yards
Chris Olave logo
Chris Olave u63.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
Projection 57.94 (Under)
Best Odds
Pick made: 6 minutes ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
At the moment, the 3rd-least pass-heavy offense in the NFL (56.7% in a neutral context) according to the model is the Saints.. Chris Olave's possession skills have worsened this season, with his Adjusted Catch Rate decreasing from 73.7% to 65.6%.. Chris Olave's 6.6 adjusted yards per target this season indicates a meaningful reduction in his receiving ability over last season's 10.0 mark.. Chris Olave's talent in grinding out extra yardage have declined this year, averaging just 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) vs a 3.50 figure last year.. This year, the fierce Buccaneers defense has conceded a measly 62.8% Adjusted Completion Rate vs. opposing WRs: the 9th-smallest rate in the league.
Receiving Yards
DN
Devin Neal o17.5 Receiving Yards (-114)
Projection 20.02 (Over)
Best Odds
Pick made: 5 hours ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 4 out of 5
The Saints are an enormous 8.5-point underdog in this week's contest, likely creating an extreme passing game script.. Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is projected by our trusted projection set to see 130.9 plays on offense run: the 5th-most out of all the games this week.. The Saints have run the 7th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a whopping 59.9 plays per game.. The Buccaneers defense has been a prominent pass funnel this year, compelling opposing QBs to attempt the 9th-most passes in football (36.0 per game) this year.. This year, the porous Buccaneers defense has been torched for a colossal 48.0 adjusted receiving yards per game vs. opposing RBs: the most in the league.
Rushing Yards
Tyler Shough logo
Tyler Shough o11.5 Rushing Yards (-105)
Projection 19.15 (Over)
Best Odds
Pick made: 18 hours ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 5 out of 5
Our trusted projections expect the Saints to be the 4th-most run-centric offense in the league (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 43.3% run rate.. Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is projected by our trusted projection set to see 130.9 plays on offense run: the 5th-most out of all the games this week.. The Saints have run the 7th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a whopping 59.9 plays per game.. The Buccaneers linebackers profile as the 9th-worst LB corps in the league this year when it comes to run defense.
Rushing Yards
DN
Devin Neal o38.5 Rushing Yards (-110)
Projection 52.85 (Over)
Best Odds
Pick made: 18 hours ago
EV Model Rating
Star rating: 5 out of 5
Our trusted projections expect the Saints to be the 4th-most run-centric offense in the league (adjusted for context) at the present time with a 43.3% run rate.. Accounting for the game dynamics and the underlying approaches of each team, this contest is projected by our trusted projection set to see 130.9 plays on offense run: the 5th-most out of all the games this week.. The Saints have run the 7th-most plays in the league this year, averaging a whopping 59.9 plays per game.. The Buccaneers linebackers profile as the 9th-worst LB corps in the league this year when it comes to run defense.
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NO vs TB Consensus Picks

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Consensus Picks

Our consensus picks show you what percentage of the public is betting on, you'll need to decide whether you want to bet with or against the public.

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62% picking Tampa Bay

38%
62%

Total Picks NO 237, TB 392

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NO vs TB Props

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NO vs TB Top User Picks

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User Picks

Our user picks are made by you, our valued users - we highlight the best user picks, sharing the users who are on a hot streak.

Total

'TwoDrunk2Bunt' picks New Orleans vs Tampa Bay to go Over (42.5)

TwoDrunk2Bunt is #1 on picking games that New Orleans are in with a record of (7-2-1) and +6300 units on the season.

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'TwoDrunk2Bunt' is picking New Orleans to cover (+9.0)

TwoDrunk2Bunt is #1 on picking games that New Orleans are in with a record of (7-2-1) and +6300 units on the season.

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'Lucknuts' is picking Tampa Bay to cover (-7.5)

Lucknuts is #10 on picking games that New Orleans are in with a record of (3-4-0) and +4800 units on the season.

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'Lucknuts' picks New Orleans vs Tampa Bay to go Under (43.0)

Lucknuts is #10 on picking games that New Orleans are in with a record of (3-4-0) and +4800 units on the season.

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'Bikkembergs' is picking Tampa Bay to cover (-8.5)

Bikkembergs is #10 on picking games that Tampa Bay is in with a record of (8-2-0) and +4700 units on the season.

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'Bikkembergs' picks New Orleans vs Tampa Bay to go Under (41.0)

Bikkembergs is #10 on picking games that Tampa Bay is in with a record of (8-2-0) and +4700 units on the season.

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'BigG39' is picking Tampa Bay to cover (-8.5)

BigG39 is #2 on picking games that Tampa Bay is in with a record of (9-2-0) and +5750 units on the season.

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'BigG39' picks New Orleans vs Tampa Bay to go Under (42.5)

BigG39 is #2 on picking games that Tampa Bay is in with a record of (9-2-0) and +5750 units on the season.

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'Sabster611' picks New Orleans vs Tampa Bay to go Under (42.5)

Sabster611 is #3 on picking games that New Orleans are in with a record of (10-2-0) and +5700 units on the season.

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'Sabster611' is picking Tampa Bay to cover (-8.5)

Sabster611 is #3 on picking games that New Orleans are in with a record of (10-2-0) and +5700 units on the season.

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'rodger snyder' picks New Orleans vs Tampa Bay to go Over (42.5)

rodger snyder is #4 on picking games that Tampa Bay is in with a record of (9-3-0) and +5200 units on the season.

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'rodger snyder' is picking Tampa Bay to cover (-9.0)

rodger snyder is #4 on picking games that Tampa Bay is in with a record of (9-3-0) and +5200 units on the season.

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'rquiroz' is picking New Orleans to cover (+9.0)

rquiroz is #5 on picking games that New Orleans are in with a record of (3-2-0) and +5350 units on the season.

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'thirdperson' is picking Tampa Bay to cover (-8.5)

thirdperson is #5 on picking games that Tampa Bay is in with a record of (9-1-0) and +4900 units on the season.

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'jerrygora' is picking Tampa Bay to cover (-8.0)

jerrygora is #7 on picking games that New Orleans are in with a record of (7-0-1) and +5300 units on the season.

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'jerrygora' picks New Orleans vs Tampa Bay to go Under (43.0)

jerrygora is #7 on picking games that New Orleans are in with a record of (7-0-1) and +5300 units on the season.

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