Atlanta @ New York Picks & Props

The leading projections forecast this game to see the 3rd-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 132.8 plays, based on the traits of each team and game dynamics. The predictive model expects Kyle Pitts to be a more integral piece of his offense's passing attack near the end zone this week (26.5% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (15.6% in games he has played). After accruing 36.0 air yards per game last year, Kyle Pitts has undergone big improvement this year, currently pacing 45.0 per game. Kyle Pitts's 43.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that examines high-value offensive volume) has been significantly higher this season than it was last season at 30.4. In regards to protecting the quarterback (and the positive impact it has on all pass game metrics), the O-line of the Atlanta Falcons profiles as the 3rd-best in football this year.

The leading projections forecast this game to see the 3rd-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 132.8 plays, based on the traits of each team and game dynamics. The predictive model expects Darnell Mooney to be much more involved in his offense's pass attack near the goal line this week (23.5% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (14.3% in games he has played). Darnell Mooney has posted many more air yards this season (82.0 per game) than he did last season (73.0 per game). Darnell Mooney's 51.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that quantifies high-value offensive usage) grades out among the league leaders: 78th percentile for wide receivers. In regards to protecting the quarterback (and the positive impact it has on all pass game metrics), the O-line of the Atlanta Falcons profiles as the 3rd-best in football this year.

Given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Jets are predicted by the predictive model to call 66.7 plays on offense in this game: the 4th-highest number on the slate this week. Breece Hall has been an integral part of his team's passing offense near the end zone, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 13.9% this year, which places him in the 91st percentile when it comes to running backs. Breece Hall has totaled a massive 5.0 air yards per game this year: 95th percentile when it comes to RBs. (This may not sound like very many, but most RBs have negative air yards because they are often targeted behind the line of scrimmage). Breece Hall's 90.4% Adjusted Completion Rate this season indicates a significant growth in his receiving talent over last season's 76.7% figure. This year, the poor Falcons defense has allowed a staggering 0.36 TDs through the air per game to opposing running backs: the biggest rate in the NFL.

The leading projections forecast this game to see the 3rd-largest volume of plays run out of all the games this week at 132.8 plays, based on the traits of each team and game dynamics. With an elite 28.1% Red Zone Target Share (99th percentile) this year, Bijan Robinson has been as one of the RB receiving threats with the most usage near the end zone in the league. In regards to air yards, Bijan Robinson grades out in the lofty 95th percentile among running backs this year, accruing a massive 5.0 per game. (due to most of their targets being behind the line of scrimmage, that is much more noteworthy than it sounds since most RBs wind up with negative air yards). Bijan Robinson's 29.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that weighs high-value offensive usage) has been notably better this season than it was last season at 21.9. In regards to protecting the quarterback (and the positive impact it has on all pass game metrics), the O-line of the Atlanta Falcons profiles as the 3rd-best in football this year.

Given their underlying strategic approach and game dynamics, the Jets are predicted by the predictive model to call 66.7 plays on offense in this game: the 4th-highest number on the slate this week. Opposing offenses have run for the 7th-fewest touchdowns in football (0.73 per game) versus the Atlanta Falcons defense this year.