Jared Goff doesn't run often, but he's faced two of the top blitzing defenses in the NFL the last two games. And he's scrambled for positive yards in both contests. Now we're getting plus-odds for him to pick up a single, solitary yard—against a Vikings defense that blitzes an NFL-high 42% of the time. The Vikings rank just 13th in sack rate despite bringing extra players so often, and have allowed rushing yards to the likes of Jake Browning and Aaron Rodgers. Goff should follow suit and cash this one for us as he takes off at least once in the game.
Jefferson is averaging seven receptions per game on the road compared to 4.3 at home. He's cashed the Over in catches in three of his last four contests as well.
Gibbs just cooked the Buccaneers for 136 rushing yards two weeks ago, and he's averaging 75.1 yards per game on the ground. Minnesota is also 24th in the NFL against the run.
Goff is averaging 247.7 passing yards per game at home this season, and the Lions welcome the Vikings to Ford Field on Sunday. He's also cashed the Over in two of his last three.
Aaron Jones returned last week and immediately took control of the backfield, leading in snap share (53%), route share (44%), and carries (five). The offense struggled overall, so volume was limited, but Jones is the back-to-back on Sunday. He was the only running back to see a red-zone carry and also drew a target. Don’t read too much into the low carry count, as starters were pulled late. The key takeaway is usage—Jones handled nearly two-thirds of the backfield opportunities, signaling he’s the clear lead option. With the potential negative game script and Jones' role as a pass catcher, I'd play this to +180.
If there's one thing we know about the Lions during the Jared Goff era, it's that they light up the scoreboard at home. They are third in the league in scoring (30.7 ppg) this year while ranking seventh in EPA/play. They should move the ball against a Minnesota D that's been exposed the last two weeks. Last week, the Vikings surrendered 419 yards and 37 points to the Chargers, and the week before, Jalen Hurts threw for 326 yards on 14.2 yards per attempt against them. The core of this Lions offense has been together for years, and they know how to handle this blitz-heavy Brian Flores defense. They've scored 30+ points in the last five meetings between these NFC North rivals
The Lions are a force at Ford Field with a 10-2 record and average of 35.7 points per game since the beginning of last season. Detroit is coming off its bye week, and Minny has serious questions at quarterback. The Vikings aren’t going to be able to keep up with the Lions on Sunday, and I'm expecting this line to move in the Detriot direction over the week.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.. With an impressive 37.5% Red Zone Target% (99th percentile) this year, Amon-Ra St. Brown has been as one of the wide receivers with the most usage near the end zone in football.. Amon-Ra St. Brown grades out in the 88th percentile among WRs this year with a massive 35.1% of his team's air yards accumulated.. Amon-Ra St. Brown's 72.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that assesses high-value offensive volume) has been quite a bit higher this year than it was last year at 62.4.. Amon-Ra St. Brown has been one of the most sure-handed receivers in the league, catching a remarkable 84.3% of passes thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, grading out in the 97th percentile among WRs.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.. While Jahmyr Gibbs has earned 65.0% of his offense's red zone carries in games he has played this year, the projections expect him to be a much smaller piece of Detroit's ground game near the goal line in this contest at 52.0%.. Jahmyr Gibbs's 21.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) puts him in the company of the best in the NFL: 97th percentile for RBs.. Jahmyr Gibbs's ball-catching skills have gotten better this season, with his Adjusted Catch Rate jumping from 82.3% to 93.7%.. Jahmyr Gibbs grades out in the 81st percentile among running backs as it relates to catching TDs this year, averaging an exceptional 0.12 per game.
The Vikings are a massive 9.5-point underdog in this game, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.. Accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Minnesota Vikings to pass on 63.4% of their opportunities: the 2nd-highest frequency on the slate this week.. At the moment, the 2nd-most pass-focused team in football near the goal line (64.0% adjusted for context) according to the projections is the Minnesota Vikings.. This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.. Our trusted projections expect Justin Jefferson to be much more involved in his team's passing game near the end zone in this contest (28.2% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (21.2% in games he has played).
The Vikings are a massive 9.5-point underdog in this game, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.. Accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Minnesota Vikings to pass on 63.4% of their opportunities: the 2nd-highest frequency on the slate this week.. This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.. Jared Goff's 75.4% Adjusted Completion% this year conveys a remarkable improvement in his throwing precision over last year's 72.0% figure.. With a remarkable 8.35 adjusted yards-per-target (94th percentile) this year, Jared Goff stands among the most efficient passers in the league.. The Minnesota Vikings pass defense has shown poor efficiency this year, allowing 8.15 adjusted yards-per-target: the 8th-most in the NFL.. As it relates to linebackers in covering receivers, Minnesota's unit has been atrocious this year, grading out as the 4th-worst in the league.
The Vikings are a massive 9.5-point underdog in this game, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.. Accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Minnesota Vikings to pass on 63.4% of their opportunities: the 2nd-highest frequency on the slate this week.. This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.
An extreme running game script is indicated by the Lions being a massive 9.5-point favorite in this week's contest.. The model projects the Lions to be the 4th-least pass-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 54.7% pass rate, given their underlying play style and matchup dynamics.. Our trusted projections expect the Detroit Lions offense to be the most sluggish paced team in the league (context-neutralized) at the present time, averaging 30.35 seconds per play.. Opposing offenses have averaged 27.6 pass attempts per game against the Minnesota Vikings defense this year: 2nd-fewest in the NFL.. After averaging 41.0 air yards per game last year, Sam LaPorta has seen a big decrease this year, now sitting at 27.0 per game.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.. The leading projections forecast Amon-Ra St. Brown to total 10.4 targets in this contest, on average, placing him in the 97th percentile among wideouts.. Amon-Ra St. Brown grades out in the 88th percentile among WRs this year with a massive 35.1% of his team's air yards accumulated.. Amon-Ra St. Brown's 72.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that assesses high-value offensive volume) has been quite a bit higher this year than it was last year at 62.4.. With an outstanding 76.0 adjusted yards per game on passes (97th percentile) this year, Amon-Ra St. Brown places as one of the top WRs in the game in the league.
This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.. This week, Jahmyr Gibbs is anticipated by the model to position himself in the 97th percentile among running backs with 4.7 targets.. Jahmyr Gibbs has been an integral part of his team's pass game, garnering a Target Share of 14.9% this year, which places him in the 97th percentile when it comes to RBs.. With an excellent 27.0 adjusted yards per game through the air (97th percentile) this year, Jahmyr Gibbs stands as one of the leading pass-game RBs in the league.. Jahmyr Gibbs's ball-catching skills have gotten better this season, with his Adjusted Catch Rate jumping from 82.3% to 93.7%.
The Vikings are a massive 9.5-point underdog in this game, likely leading to an extreme passing game script.. Accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Minnesota Vikings to pass on 63.4% of their opportunities: the 2nd-highest frequency on the slate this week.. This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency.. With an elite 97.2% Route Participation Rate (99th percentile) this year, Justin Jefferson stands as one of the wideouts with the highest volume in football.. The projections expect Justin Jefferson to accumulate 10.7 targets in this week's contest, on balance, placing him in the 98th percentile among WRs.
Minnesota Trends
Detroit Trends