Minnesota @ Detroit Picks & Props

The Vikings are a massive 8.5-point underdog in this game, likely leading to an extreme passing game script. Accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Minnesota Vikings to pass on 63.0% of their opportunities: the 2nd-highest frequency on the slate this week. At the moment, the 2nd-most pass-focused team in football near the goal line (63.9% adjusted for context) according to the projections is the Minnesota Vikings. This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency. Our trusted projections expect Justin Jefferson to be much more involved in his team's passing game near the end zone in this contest (28.5% projected Red Zone Target Share) than he has been this year (21.2% in games he has played).

This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency. With an impressive 37.5% Red Zone Target% (99th percentile) this year, Amon-Ra St. Brown has been as one of the wide receivers with the most usage near the end zone in football. Amon-Ra St. Brown grades out in the 88th percentile among WRs this year with a massive 35.1% of his team's air yards accumulated. Amon-Ra St. Brown's 72.4 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that assesses high-value offensive volume) has been quite a bit higher this year than it was last year at 62.4. Amon-Ra St. Brown has been one of the most sure-handed receivers in the league, catching a remarkable 84.3% of passes thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, grading out in the 97th percentile among WRs.

The Vikings are a massive 8.5-point underdog in this game, likely leading to an extreme passing game script. Accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Minnesota Vikings to pass on 63.0% of their opportunities: the 2nd-highest frequency on the slate this week. At the moment, the 2nd-most pass-focused team in football near the goal line (63.9% adjusted for context) according to the projections is the Minnesota Vikings. This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency. T.J. Hockenson's ball-catching skills have improved this season, with his Adjusted Completion% increasing from 68.8% to 76.7%.

This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency. While Jahmyr Gibbs has earned 65.0% of his offense's red zone carries in games he has played this year, the projections expect him to be a much smaller piece of Detroit's ground game near the goal line in this contest at 52.0%. Jahmyr Gibbs's 21.7 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) puts him in the company of the best in the NFL: 97th percentile for RBs. Jahmyr Gibbs's ball-catching skills have gotten better this season, with his Adjusted Catch Rate jumping from 82.3% to 93.7%. Jahmyr Gibbs grades out in the 81st percentile among running backs as it relates to catching TDs this year, averaging an exceptional 0.12 per game.

This game will be played in a dome—meaning no wind, increased pass volume, increased touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency. Sam LaPorta has been a key part of his team's offense near the end zone, posting a Red Zone Target Share of 15.6% this year, which puts him in the 81st percentile among tight ends. Sam LaPorta's 36.5 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that measures high-value offensive involvement) ranks him among the league leaders: 89th percentile for tight ends. Sam LaPorta's receiving reliability have been refined this year, with his Adjusted Completion% rising from 77.8% to 88.4%. This year, the poor Vikings defense has yielded a monstrous 0.57 receiving TDs per game to opposing tight ends: the 7th-worst rate in the league.

The Vikings are a massive 8.5-point underdog in this game, likely leading to an extreme passing game script. Accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Minnesota Vikings to pass on 63.0% of their opportunities: the 2nd-highest frequency on the slate this week. At the moment, the 2nd-most pass-focused team in football near the goal line (63.9% adjusted for context) according to the projections is the Minnesota Vikings. This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency. Aaron Jones has been an integral part of his team's pass game near the end zone, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 18.9% since the start of last season, which puts him in the 99th percentile when it comes to RBs.

The Vikings are a massive 8.5-point underdog in this game, likely leading to an extreme passing game script. Accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics, the leading projections forecast the Minnesota Vikings to pass on 63.0% of their opportunities: the 2nd-highest frequency on the slate this week. At the moment, the 2nd-most pass-focused team in football near the goal line (63.9% adjusted for context) according to the projections is the Minnesota Vikings. This game will be played in a dome—meaning zero wind, higher pass volume, higher touchdown potential, and increased passing efficiency. This year, the deficient Detroit Lions defense has given up a colossal 2.00 passing touchdowns per game to opposing teams: the 5th-largest rate in the league.