Josh Allen is fresh off the bye and has one of his top TD targets back on the field in TE Dalton Kincaid. Allen has thrown for two or more touchdowns in all but one of his seven games this season and projections for this Week 8 date with Carolina are leaning toward a pair of TD connections. Carolina has a stronger run defense but gets chewed up through the air, giving up 1.4 passing TDs per game. They recently allowed three TDs to both Dak Prescott and Tua Tagovailoa before shutting Justin Fields/Tyrod Taylor out of the end zone in Week 7 – not that grand an accomplishment. The Panthers play the highest rate of zone coverage in the NFL and Allen is among the best QBs in the league at picking apart zone coverage.
Even with some of the D-line cavalry arriving for the Bills after the bye week, the numbers paint an ugly picture so far. The visitors are giving up 156.3 rushing yards per game, second-worst in the NFL, and they should buckle up for a steady diet of run plays as Carolina plays to its strengths. Buffalo is also allowing chunk plays on the ground, including Derrick Henry’s 46-yard run in Week 1 and Bijan Robinson’s 81-yard scamper in Week 6. Don’t be surprised if Dowdle takes a leap towards this Over with a rush of 20+ yards on Sunday.
Kincaid sat out Week 6 with an oblique injury but practiced in limited fashion that week before the bye gave him two weeks to get right for Carolina. Despite missing Week 6, he’s still third on the team in receptions, tied for second in red zone targets, and has three TDs in his five games. The Panthers have been squashed by tight ends this season, giving up four TDs and the fourth most yards to the position.
Allen has thrown fewer than 30.5 passes in four of his last five contests, averaging 26.4 pass attempts per game over that span. The one contest during that span where he went Over this number, he threw 31 passes in a loss to the Patriots. The Bills are 7.5-point faves this week since they are fresh off a bye and face a Panthers squad that is likely missing QB Bryce Young. Buffalo's offense plays at the second-slowest pace in the NFL (slowest pace in neutral game situations) and ranks 31st in pass play percentage. We'll likely see a positive game script for the Bills which will lead to a sluggish tempo and a run-heavy gameplan.
There’s some risk with Dalton Kincaid after he missed Week 6, but the Week 7 bye likely helped him recover from the oblique injury. He was limited in Wednesday’s practice, but the upside makes the risk worth considering. Before sitting out, Kincaid had six catches for over 100 yards in his last game and had scored in three of the four games before that. This offense clearly needs him, and a Top-5 matchup at +185 or better puts him in a strong betting spot. If Kincaid doesn’t play, Dawson Knox becomes the pivot. That said, you'd want better than +250 to make that move worth it.
Buffalo is coming off its bye week, while Carolina quarterback Bryce Young sustained an ankle injury during Week 7 and couldn’t finish the game. While I’m still expecting Young to play after X-rays came back negative, we’re landing this spread on the key number of 7, and a Bills bounce back following consecutive losses is coming Sunday afternoon. There are already shops at Buffalo -7.5, too, and I expect this number to continue moving in that direction throughout the week.
The Panthers are a big 7-point underdog this week, which points towards an extreme passing game script.. Our trusted projections expect the Carolina Panthers to be the 5th-most pass-centric team in football near the end zone (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 60.3% red zone pass rate.. The 7th-largest volume of plays in the NFL have been called by the Panthers this year (a whopping 60.6 per game on average).. The Carolina Panthers O-line profiles as the 8th-best in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong influence on all pass game metrics across the board.
Khalil Shakir has been heavily involved in his team's passing offense near the end zone, earning a Red Zone Target Share of 21.2% this year, which ranks him in the 82nd percentile when it comes to WRs.. The Buffalo offensive line grades out as the 5th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a strong effect on all passing offense statistics across the board.. Khalil Shakir comes in as one of the best possession receivers in the NFL, completing an exceptional 78.2% of passes thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, checking in at the 89th percentile among WRs.. With a remarkable ratio of 0.29 per game through the air (75th percentile), Khalil Shakir places among the leading receiving touchdown-scorers in the league when it comes to WRs this year.. When it comes to the defensive ends' role in defending against the run, Carolina's DE corps has been one of the most skilled this year, grading out as the 2nd-best in the NFL.
The Panthers are a big 7-point underdog this week, which points towards an extreme passing game script.. Our trusted projections expect the Carolina Panthers to be the 5th-most pass-centric team in football near the end zone (adjusted for context) at the moment with a 60.3% red zone pass rate.. The 7th-largest volume of plays in the NFL have been called by the Panthers this year (a whopping 60.6 per game on average).. With an extraordinary 10.0% Red Zone Target Rate (80th percentile) this year, Chuba Hubbard has been as one of the RB receiving threats with the highest volume near the goal line in the NFL.. The Carolina Panthers O-line profiles as the 8th-best in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong influence on all pass game metrics across the board.
The Panthers are a big 7-point underdog this week, which points towards an extreme passing game script.. The 7th-largest volume of plays in the NFL have been called by the Panthers this year (a whopping 60.6 per game on average).. The Carolina Panthers O-line profiles as the 8th-best in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong influence on all pass game metrics across the board.. When it comes to cornerbacks in covering receivers, Buffalo's group of CBs has been atrocious this year, projecting as the 3rd-worst in the NFL.
The predictive model expects the Carolina Panthers to be the 6th-least pass-heavy team in the league (adjusted for context) right now with a 58.7% pass rate.. Given their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Panthers are expected by the projection model to call only 60.2 total plays in this contest: the fewest on the slate this week.. Andy Dalton has attempted just 20.0 passes per game since the start of last season, grading out in the 11th percentile among QBs.. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 29.2 pass attempts per game against the Bills defense this year: 5th-fewest in football.
The Panthers are a big 7-point underdog this week, which points towards an extreme passing game script.. The 7th-largest volume of plays in the NFL have been called by the Panthers this year (a whopping 60.6 per game on average).. The Carolina Panthers O-line profiles as the 8th-best in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong influence on all pass game metrics across the board.. The Buffalo Bills linebackers grade out as the 10th-worst unit in the NFL this year in defending receivers.
Our trusted projections expect Khalil Shakir to accumulate 6.4 targets in this game, on balance, ranking him in the 75th percentile among wide receivers.. The Buffalo offensive line grades out as the 5th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a strong effect on all passing offense statistics across the board.. Khalil Shakir comes in as one of the best possession receivers in the NFL, completing an exceptional 78.2% of passes thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, checking in at the 89th percentile among WRs.
The Panthers are a big 7-point underdog this week, which points towards an extreme passing game script.. The 7th-largest volume of plays in the NFL have been called by the Panthers this year (a whopping 60.6 per game on average).. The Carolina Panthers O-line profiles as the 8th-best in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong influence on all pass game metrics across the board.. The Bills pass defense has surrendered the 8th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the league (68.5%) versus WRs this year (68.5%).. When it comes to cornerbacks in covering receivers, Buffalo's group of CBs has been atrocious this year, projecting as the 3rd-worst in the NFL.
The predictive model expects the Carolina Panthers to be the 6th-least pass-heavy team in the league (adjusted for context) right now with a 58.7% pass rate.. Given their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Panthers are expected by the projection model to call only 60.5 total plays in this contest: the fewest on the slate this week.. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 29.2 pass attempts per game against the Bills defense this year: 5th-fewest in football.. Chuba Hubbard's talent in grinding out extra yardage have diminished this year, accumulating just 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) vs a 5.70 mark last year.. The Buffalo Bills defense has given up the 3rd-fewest adjusted receiving yards per game in the league (just 22.0) versus running backs this year.
Right now, the 6th-most run-centric offense in the league (41.3% adjusted for context) according to the predictive model is the Panthers.. The 7th-largest volume of plays in the NFL have been called by the Panthers this year (a whopping 60.6 per game on average).. This year, the formidable Buffalo Bills run defense has given up a paltry 5.60 adjusted yards-per-carry to the opposing run game: the 32nd-best rate in football.. The Bills safeties project as the 32nd-worst group of safeties in the league this year when it comes to run defense.
Buffalo Trends
Carolina Trends