Buffalo @ Carolina Picks & Props

Even with some of the D-line cavalry arriving for the Bills after the bye week, the numbers paint an ugly picture so far. The visitors are giving up 156.3 rushing yards per game, second-worst in the NFL, and they should buckle up for a steady diet of run plays as Carolina plays to its strengths. Buffalo is also allowing chunk plays on the ground, including Derrick Henry’s 46-yard run in Week 1 and Bijan Robinson’s 81-yard scamper in Week 6. Don’t be surprised if Dowdle takes a leap towards this Over with a rush of 20+ yards on Sunday.

Kincaid sat out Week 6 with an oblique injury but practiced in limited fashion that week before the bye gave him two weeks to get right for Carolina. Despite missing Week 6, he’s still third on the team in receptions, tied for second in red zone targets, and has three TDs in his five games. The Panthers have been squashed by tight ends this season, giving up four TDs and the fourth most yards to the position. 

Allen has thrown fewer than 30.5 passes in four of his last five contests, averaging 26.4 pass attempts per game over that span. The one contest during that span where he went Over this number, he threw 31 passes in a loss to the Patriots. The Bills are 7.5-point faves this week since they are fresh off a bye and face a Panthers squad that is likely missing QB Bryce Young. Buffalo's offense plays at the second-slowest pace in the NFL (slowest pace in neutral game situations) and ranks 31st in pass play percentage. We'll likely see a positive game script for the Bills which will lead to a sluggish tempo and a run-heavy gameplan. 

There’s some risk with Dalton Kincaid after he missed Week 6, but the Week 7 bye likely helped him recover from the oblique injury. He was limited in Wednesday’s practice, but the upside makes the risk worth considering. Before sitting out, Kincaid had six catches for over 100 yards in his last game and had scored in three of the four games before that. This offense clearly needs him, and a Top-5 matchup at +185 or better puts him in a strong betting spot. If Kincaid doesn’t play, Dawson Knox becomes the pivot. That said, you'd want better than +250 to make that move worth it.

Buffalo is coming off its bye week, while Carolina quarterback Bryce Young sustained an ankle injury during Week 7 and couldn’t finish the game. While I’m still expecting Young to play after X-rays came back negative, we’re landing this spread on the key number of 7, and a Bills bounce back following consecutive losses is coming Sunday afternoon. There are already shops at Buffalo -7.5, too, and I expect this number to continue moving in that direction throughout the week.

The Panthers are a big 7-point underdog this week, which points towards an extreme passing game script.. The 7th-largest volume of plays in the NFL have been called by the Panthers this year (a whopping 60.6 per game on average).. The Carolina Panthers O-line profiles as the 8th-best in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong influence on all pass game metrics across the board.. When it comes to cornerbacks in covering receivers, Buffalo's group of CBs has been atrocious this year, projecting as the 3rd-worst in the NFL.

The predictive model expects the Carolina Panthers to be the 5th-least pass-heavy team in the league (adjusted for context) right now with a 58.5% pass rate.. Given their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Panthers are expected by the projection model to call only 60.1 total plays in this contest: the fewest on the slate this week.. Andy Dalton has attempted just 20.0 passes per game since the start of last season, grading out in the 11th percentile among QBs.. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 29.2 pass attempts per game against the Bills defense this year: 5th-fewest in football.

The Panthers are a big 7-point underdog this week, which points towards an extreme passing game script.. The 7th-largest volume of plays in the NFL have been called by the Panthers this year (a whopping 60.6 per game on average).. The Carolina Panthers O-line profiles as the 8th-best in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong influence on all pass game metrics across the board.. The Buffalo Bills linebackers grade out as the 10th-worst unit in the NFL this year in defending receivers.

The Panthers are a big 7-point underdog this week, which points towards an extreme passing game script.. The 7th-largest volume of plays in the NFL have been called by the Panthers this year (a whopping 60.6 per game on average).. The Carolina Panthers O-line profiles as the 8th-best in football this year in protecting the quarterback, which has a strong influence on all pass game metrics across the board.. The Bills pass defense has surrendered the 8th-highest Adjusted Completion% in the league (68.5%) versus WRs this year (68.5%).. When it comes to cornerbacks in covering receivers, Buffalo's group of CBs has been atrocious this year, projecting as the 3rd-worst in the NFL.

Our trusted projections expect Khalil Shakir to accumulate 6.3 targets in this game, on balance, ranking him in the 75th percentile among wide receivers.. The Buffalo offensive line grades out as the 5th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a strong effect on all passing offense statistics across the board.. Khalil Shakir comes in as one of the best possession receivers in the NFL, completing an exceptional 78.2% of passes thrown his way (adjusted for context) this year, checking in at the 89th percentile among WRs.

Dalton Kincaid has put up a colossal 47.0 air yards per game this year: 98th percentile among TEs.. Dalton Kincaid's 39.0 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced metric that measures high-value offensive usage) puts him in the company of the best in the NFL: 90th percentile for tight ends.. The Buffalo offensive line grades out as the 5th-best in the NFL this year in protecting the QB, which has a strong effect on all passing offense statistics across the board.. Dalton Kincaid's 48.0 adjusted yards per game on passes this year indicates a remarkable improvement in his pass-catching proficiency over last year's 36.0 figure.. This year, the anemic Panthers pass defense has conceded a staggering 87.2% Adjusted Completion Rate to opposing tight ends: the 3rd-worst rate in football.

The predictive model expects the Carolina Panthers to be the 5th-least pass-heavy team in the league (adjusted for context) right now with a 58.5% pass rate.. Given their underlying traits and game dynamics, the Panthers are expected by the projection model to call only 60.1 total plays in this contest: the fewest on the slate this week.. Opposing quarterbacks have averaged 29.2 pass attempts per game against the Bills defense this year: 5th-fewest in football.. Chuba Hubbard's talent in grinding out extra yardage have diminished this year, accumulating just 0.00 yards-after-the-catch (YAC) vs a 5.70 mark last year.. The Buffalo Bills defense has given up the 3rd-fewest adjusted receiving yards per game in the league (just 22.0) versus running backs this year.

With a 7-point advantage, the Bills are heavily favored this week, suggesting much more of a focus on running than their standard game plan.. The projections expect the Buffalo Bills as the 3rd-most run-oriented offense among all teams this week with a 47.0% run rate, based on their underlying tendencies and matchup dynamics.. The projections expect Josh Allen to accrue 6.6 carries in this week's game, on balance: the 4th-most out of all QBs.. Making up 22.8% of his offense's rushing play calls this year (87th percentile among QBs), Josh Allen's mobility marks him as a major weapon in the run game.. Josh Allen has run for quite a few more yards per game (39.0) this year than he did last year (33.0).