Dan Campbell is looking for more balance in the backfield and David Montgomery could get his against this Giants defense – especially with a short week coming for Thanksgiving. The Lions are big favorites at home and Detroit does not take its foot of the pedal, which makes Montgomery a live touchdown option. He’s received 21 red-zone carries for five total TDs and faces a New York defense with injuries up and down the depth chart. The G-Men have the worst red zone defense in the NFL and have allowed 10 rushing touchdowns and three receiving TDs to RBs this season.
The Lions scored just nine points last week. With TE Sam LaPorta out with a season-ending injury and their O-line extremely banged-up, I don't see them putting up a ton of points against a Giants defense that gets a good push up front. That said, I expect New York's offense to look even worse with with Jaxson Dart in concussion protocol and backup QB Jameis Winston making his second-straight start. This inept offense that was already missing No. 1 WR Malik Nabers and RB Cam Skattebo. The Giants don't have the weapons to move the ball against a Lions stop unit that ranks fourth in the NFL in defensive success rate.
The Giants’ backfield usage doesn’t match the touchdown odds. Devin Singletary has 13 red-zone carries to Tyrone Tracy’s three since Cam Skattebo went down, yet Tracy is priced shorter to score. That doesn’t make much sense. Last week, the backfield was a true 50/50 split, and the two combined for 35 carries. Singletary handled nine of the team’s 10 red-zone rushing attempts and scored twice. The offense isn’t pretty, but he owns the red-zone role and can handle 15-plus touches. Anything above +200 is a buy for me, even in a likely negative game script.
The Lions are coming off a loss to the Eagles, but they have a tendency to underperform on the road outdoors against good teams. On the other hand, they tend to blow out bad teams at home, and the 2-9 Giants are definitely bad. Detroit's two-headed rushing attack of Jahmyr Gibbs and David Montgomery will shred a New York front that is dead-last in the league in defensive rush EPA. Even if QB Jaxson Dart returns to the Giants lineup after suffering a concussion, they don't have the weapons to move the ball against a Lions stop unit that ranks fourth in the NFL in defensive success rate.
Given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Detroit Lions are projected by the projections to call 66.8 total plays in this game: the 2nd-highest number on the slate this week.. The passing offenses of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (meaning no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may decline.. After accruing 68.0 air yards per game last year, Amon-Ra St. Brown has shown good development this year, now averaging 80.0 per game.. Amon-Ra St. Brown's 74.8 WOPR (Weighted Opportunity Rating—an advanced statistic that assesses high-value offensive volume) has been notably better this year than it was last year at 62.4.. Amon-Ra St. Brown ranks in the 99th percentile among WRs when it comes to catching touchdowns this year, averaging a fantastic 0.73 per game.
The New York Giants will be rolling out backup quarterback Jameis Winston in this week's contest, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.. This week's line suggests an extreme throwing game script for the Giants, who are giant -13.5-point underdogs.. Given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the New York Giants to pass on 62.3% of their plays: the 5th-greatest clip among all teams this week.. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is projected by our trusted projection set to have 131.8 plays on offense called: the 2nd-most on the slate this week.. The 6th-largest volume of plays in the league have been run by the Giants this year (a monstrous 60.0 per game on average).
The New York Giants will be rolling out backup quarterback Jameis Winston in this week's contest, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.. This week's line suggests an extreme throwing game script for the Giants, who are giant -13.5-point underdogs.. Given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the New York Giants to pass on 62.3% of their plays: the 5th-greatest clip among all teams this week.. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is projected by our trusted projection set to have 131.8 plays on offense called: the 2nd-most on the slate this week.. The 6th-largest volume of plays in the league have been run by the Giants this year (a monstrous 60.0 per game on average).
Given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Detroit Lions are projected by the projections to call 66.8 total plays in this game: the 2nd-highest number on the slate this week.. The passing offenses of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (meaning no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may decline.. Jared Goff grades out as one of the most on-target QBs in football this year with an excellent 70.3% Adjusted Completion%, grading out in the 94th percentile.. Jared Goff comes in as one of the most efficient QBs in the NFL this year, averaging a fantastic 8.14 adjusted yards-per-target while checking in at the 88th percentile.. This year, the weak New York Giants defense has been torched for a monstrous 246.0 adjusted yards per game through the air to opposing QBs: the 9th-worst in the NFL.
The New York Giants will be rolling out backup quarterback Jameis Winston in this week's contest, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.. This week's line suggests an extreme throwing game script for the Giants, who are giant -13.5-point underdogs.. Given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the New York Giants to pass on 62.3% of their plays: the 5th-greatest clip among all teams this week.. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is projected by our trusted projection set to have 131.8 plays on offense called: the 2nd-most on the slate this week.. The 6th-largest volume of plays in the league have been run by the Giants this year (a monstrous 60.0 per game on average).
Given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Detroit Lions are projected by the projections to call 66.8 total plays in this game: the 2nd-highest number on the slate this week.. The passing offenses of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (meaning no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may decline.. The predictive model expects Brock Wright to be much more involved in his team's passing offense in this contest (11.8% projected Target Share) than he has been this year (4.9% in games he has played).. As it relates to safeties in defending pass-catchers, New York's group of safeties has been very bad this year, profiling as the 8th-worst in the league.
Given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Detroit Lions are projected by the projections to call 66.8 total plays in this game: the 2nd-highest number on the slate this week.. The passing offenses of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (meaning no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may decline.. The model projects Amon-Ra St. Brown to accumulate 10.7 targets this week, on balance, placing him in the 99th percentile when it comes to WRs.. After accruing 68.0 air yards per game last year, Amon-Ra St. Brown has shown good development this year, now averaging 80.0 per game.. This year, the poor Giants defense has surrendered a whopping 163.0 adjusted receiving yards per game vs. opposing wideouts: the 7th-most in football.
The New York Giants will be rolling out backup quarterback Jameis Winston in this week's contest, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.. This week's line suggests an extreme throwing game script for the Giants, who are giant -13.5-point underdogs.. Given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the New York Giants to pass on 62.3% of their plays: the 5th-greatest clip among all teams this week.. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is projected by our trusted projection set to have 131.8 plays on offense called: the 2nd-most on the slate this week.. The 6th-largest volume of plays in the league have been run by the Giants this year (a monstrous 60.0 per game on average).
Given their underlying tendencies and game dynamics, the Detroit Lions are projected by the projections to call 66.8 total plays in this game: the 2nd-highest number on the slate this week.. The passing offenses of both teams (in terms of both volume and effectiveness) ought to benefit from the still "weather" conditions (meaning no wind) inside this dome, while rush volume may decline.. This week, Jahmyr Gibbs is projected by our trusted projection set to rank in the 96th percentile among running backs with 5.5 targets.. With a sizeable 15.2% Target Rate (97th percentile) this year, Jahmyr Gibbs rates as one of the pass-game running backs with the most usage in football.. Jahmyr Gibbs ranks as one of the top pass-game running backs this year, averaging a stellar 31.0 adjusted yards per game while grading out in the 97th percentile.
The New York Giants will be rolling out backup quarterback Jameis Winston in this week's contest, which typically means fewer pass attempts and more rushes.. This week's line suggests an extreme throwing game script for the Giants, who are giant -13.5-point underdogs.. Given their underlying strategic approach and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the New York Giants to pass on 62.3% of their plays: the 5th-greatest clip among all teams this week.. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is projected by our trusted projection set to have 131.8 plays on offense called: the 2nd-most on the slate this week.. The 6th-largest volume of plays in the league have been run by the Giants this year (a monstrous 60.0 per game on average).
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