Dallas 3rd NFC East7-10
Cleveland 4th AFC North3-14
FOX

Dallas @ Cleveland props

Huntington Bank Field

Props
Player
Prop
Projection
Best Odds
Projection Rating

David Njoku Receptions Made Props • Cleveland

David Njoku
D. Njoku
tight end TE • Cleveland
Prop
4.5
Receptions Made
Projection
3.8
Best Odds

Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Browns to pass on 53.6% of their downs: the 3rd-lowest rate on the slate this week. Windy weather conditions (like the 13-mph being projected in this game) typically lead to decreased passing effectiveness, reduced air volume, and increased rush volume. Opposing teams have averaged 29.0 pass attempts per game against the Dallas Cowboys defense last year: 2nd-fewest in the NFL. David Njoku is positioned as one of the most hard-handed receivers in the league among tight ends, completing just 68.1% of passes thrown his way (adjusted for context) last year, ranking in the 17th percentile. The Cowboys pass defense has allowed the 9th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the league (70.3%) versus TEs last year (70.3%).

David Njoku

Prop: 4.5 Receptions Made
Projection: 3.8
Prop:
4.5 Receptions Made
Projection:
3.8

Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Browns to pass on 53.6% of their downs: the 3rd-lowest rate on the slate this week. Windy weather conditions (like the 13-mph being projected in this game) typically lead to decreased passing effectiveness, reduced air volume, and increased rush volume. Opposing teams have averaged 29.0 pass attempts per game against the Dallas Cowboys defense last year: 2nd-fewest in the NFL. David Njoku is positioned as one of the most hard-handed receivers in the league among tight ends, completing just 68.1% of passes thrown his way (adjusted for context) last year, ranking in the 17th percentile. The Cowboys pass defense has allowed the 9th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in the league (70.3%) versus TEs last year (70.3%).

Jerome Ford Receptions Made Props • Cleveland

Jerome Ford
J. Ford
running back RB • Cleveland
Prop
2.5
Receptions Made
Projection
1.9
Best Odds

Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Browns to pass on 53.6% of their downs: the 3rd-lowest rate on the slate this week. Windy weather conditions (like the 13-mph being projected in this game) typically lead to decreased passing effectiveness, reduced air volume, and increased rush volume. Opposing teams have averaged 29.0 pass attempts per game against the Dallas Cowboys defense last year: 2nd-fewest in the NFL. Last year, the strong Dallas Cowboys defense has surrendered a meager 74.5% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing running backs: the 3rd-lowest rate in the NFL. The Dallas Cowboys linebackers profile as the 4th-best LB corps in football last year in covering pass-catchers.

Jerome Ford

Prop: 2.5 Receptions Made
Projection: 1.9
Prop:
2.5 Receptions Made
Projection:
1.9

Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Browns to pass on 53.6% of their downs: the 3rd-lowest rate on the slate this week. Windy weather conditions (like the 13-mph being projected in this game) typically lead to decreased passing effectiveness, reduced air volume, and increased rush volume. Opposing teams have averaged 29.0 pass attempts per game against the Dallas Cowboys defense last year: 2nd-fewest in the NFL. Last year, the strong Dallas Cowboys defense has surrendered a meager 74.5% Adjusted Completion Rate versus opposing running backs: the 3rd-lowest rate in the NFL. The Dallas Cowboys linebackers profile as the 4th-best LB corps in football last year in covering pass-catchers.

Amari Cooper Receptions Made Props • Cleveland

Amari Cooper
A. Cooper
wide receiver WR • Cleveland
Prop
4.5
Receptions Made
Projection
3.7
Best Odds

Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Browns to pass on 53.6% of their downs: the 3rd-lowest rate on the slate this week. Windy weather conditions (like the 13-mph being projected in this game) typically lead to decreased passing effectiveness, reduced air volume, and increased rush volume. Opposing teams have averaged 29.0 pass attempts per game against the Dallas Cowboys defense last year: 2nd-fewest in the NFL. The Dallas Cowboys pass defense has surrendered the 5th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in football (59.1%) to WRs last year (59.1%). The Dallas Cowboys linebackers profile as the 4th-best LB corps in football last year in covering pass-catchers.

Amari Cooper

Prop: 4.5 Receptions Made
Projection: 3.7
Prop:
4.5 Receptions Made
Projection:
3.7

Given their underlying traits and matchup dynamics, the projections expect the Browns to pass on 53.6% of their downs: the 3rd-lowest rate on the slate this week. Windy weather conditions (like the 13-mph being projected in this game) typically lead to decreased passing effectiveness, reduced air volume, and increased rush volume. Opposing teams have averaged 29.0 pass attempts per game against the Dallas Cowboys defense last year: 2nd-fewest in the NFL. The Dallas Cowboys pass defense has surrendered the 5th-lowest Adjusted Completion% in football (59.1%) to WRs last year (59.1%). The Dallas Cowboys linebackers profile as the 4th-best LB corps in football last year in covering pass-catchers.

CeeDee Lamb Receptions Made Props • Dallas

CeeDee Lamb
C. Lamb
wide receiver WR • Dallas
Prop
6.5
Receptions Made
Projection
6.4
Best Odds

The Dallas Cowboys have played in the 3rd-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the league last year, which ought to result in reduced pass volume, increased running volume, and reduced passing offense effectiveness when facing windier conditions this week. Windy weather conditions (like the 13-mph being called for in this game) typically mean decreased passing efficiency, reduced air volume, and higher rush volume. Opposing QBs teams have been hesitant to rely on the passing game too much against the Browns, averaging the 6th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a lowly 31.1 per game) last year. The Browns pass defense has surrendered the lowest Adjusted Completion% in football (54.2%) vs. wideouts last year (54.2%). The Browns linebackers grade out as the 5th-best unit in the league last year in defending receivers.

CeeDee Lamb

Prop: 6.5 Receptions Made
Projection: 6.4
Prop:
6.5 Receptions Made
Projection:
6.4

The Dallas Cowboys have played in the 3rd-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the league last year, which ought to result in reduced pass volume, increased running volume, and reduced passing offense effectiveness when facing windier conditions this week. Windy weather conditions (like the 13-mph being called for in this game) typically mean decreased passing efficiency, reduced air volume, and higher rush volume. Opposing QBs teams have been hesitant to rely on the passing game too much against the Browns, averaging the 6th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a lowly 31.1 per game) last year. The Browns pass defense has surrendered the lowest Adjusted Completion% in football (54.2%) vs. wideouts last year (54.2%). The Browns linebackers grade out as the 5th-best unit in the league last year in defending receivers.

Ezekiel Elliott Receptions Made Props • Dallas

Ezekiel Elliott
E. Elliott
running back RB • Dallas
Prop
1.5
Receptions Made
Projection
1.9
Best Odds

The model projects the Dallas Cowboys as the 9th-most pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 60.4% pass rate, accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is projected by the predictive model to see 134.7 offensive plays run: the highest number on the slate this week. The Dallas Cowboys have called the 5th-most plays in the NFL last year, totaling a colossal 60.4 plays per game. Ezekiel Elliott has been a big part of his team's passing offense, garnering a Target Share of 11.6% last year, which puts him in the 86th percentile when it comes to running backs. Ezekiel Elliott comes in as one of the top RBs in the pass game last year, averaging an exceptional 3.0 adjusted receptions per game while ranking in the 86th percentile.

Ezekiel Elliott

Prop: 1.5 Receptions Made
Projection: 1.9
Prop:
1.5 Receptions Made
Projection:
1.9

The model projects the Dallas Cowboys as the 9th-most pass-centric team on the slate this week with a 60.4% pass rate, accounting for their underlying play style and matchup dynamics. Based on the game dynamics and the underlying tendencies of each team, this contest is projected by the predictive model to see 134.7 offensive plays run: the highest number on the slate this week. The Dallas Cowboys have called the 5th-most plays in the NFL last year, totaling a colossal 60.4 plays per game. Ezekiel Elliott has been a big part of his team's passing offense, garnering a Target Share of 11.6% last year, which puts him in the 86th percentile when it comes to running backs. Ezekiel Elliott comes in as one of the top RBs in the pass game last year, averaging an exceptional 3.0 adjusted receptions per game while ranking in the 86th percentile.

Jake Ferguson Receptions Made Props • Dallas

Jake Ferguson
J. Ferguson
tight end TE • Dallas
Prop
4.5
Receptions Made
Projection
4.3
Best Odds

The Dallas Cowboys have played in the 3rd-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the league last year, which ought to result in reduced pass volume, increased running volume, and reduced passing offense effectiveness when facing windier conditions this week. Windy weather conditions (like the 13-mph being called for in this game) typically mean decreased passing efficiency, reduced air volume, and higher rush volume. Opposing QBs teams have been hesitant to rely on the passing game too much against the Browns, averaging the 6th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a lowly 31.1 per game) last year. The Browns linebackers grade out as the 5th-best unit in the league last year in defending receivers.

Jake Ferguson

Prop: 4.5 Receptions Made
Projection: 4.3
Prop:
4.5 Receptions Made
Projection:
4.3

The Dallas Cowboys have played in the 3rd-most "low wind" (4-mph or less) games in the league last year, which ought to result in reduced pass volume, increased running volume, and reduced passing offense effectiveness when facing windier conditions this week. Windy weather conditions (like the 13-mph being called for in this game) typically mean decreased passing efficiency, reduced air volume, and higher rush volume. Opposing QBs teams have been hesitant to rely on the passing game too much against the Browns, averaging the 6th-fewest attempts in the NFL (a lowly 31.1 per game) last year. The Browns linebackers grade out as the 5th-best unit in the league last year in defending receivers.

Elijah Moore Receptions Made Props • Cleveland

Elijah Moore
E. Moore
wide receiver WR • Cleveland
Prop
1.5
Receptions Made
Projection
3.59
(Season avg.)
Best Odds

Elijah Moore has gone over 1.5 in 9 of his last 10 games.

Jerry Jeudy Receptions Made Props • Cleveland

Jerry Jeudy
J. Jeudy
wide receiver WR • Cleveland
Prop
3.5
Receptions Made
Projection
5.29
(Season avg.)
Best Odds

Jerry Jeudy has gone over 3.5 in 9 of his last 10 games.

Brandin Cooks Receptions Made Props • Dallas

Brandin Cooks
B. Cooks
wide receiver WR • Dallas
Prop
3.5
Receptions Made
Projection
2.60
(Season avg.)
Best Odds

Brandin Cooks has gone over 3.5 in 2 of his last 10 games.

Jalen Tolbert Receptions Made Props • Dallas

Jalen Tolbert
J. Tolbert
wide receiver WR • Dallas
Prop
1.5
Receptions Made
Projection
2.88
(Season avg.)
Best Odds

Jalen Tolbert has gone over 1.5 in 8 of his last 10 games.

Rico Dowdle Receptions Made Props • Dallas

Rico Dowdle
R. Dowdle
running back RB • Dallas
Prop
1.5
Receptions Made
Projection
2.44
(Season avg.)
Best Odds

Rico Dowdle has gone over 1.5 in 7 of his last 10 games.

How is Value calculated?

Our value picks are based on the Expected Value (EV) of placing the bet, using our projections and the current odds price:

0-2 Stars: Negative to Even EV
3-4 Stars: Positive EV
5 Stars: Highest EV

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