Alabama vs Mississippi State Picks & Props
ALA vs MSST Picks
NCAAF PicksMississippi State ranks seventh nationally in available yards percentage at 65.7%, giving the Bulldogs a strong path to sustain drives against Alabama. Their passing game is also producing 0.34 EPA per pass, 27th nationally, so Mississippi State can stay productive if Alabama loads up against the run. I project Mississippi State to score 30 points. I think the offense is dynamic enough to test this Alabama defense in a hostile atmosphere.
I'm playing the Over to 62.5. Alabama is averaging 48 points per game and Mississippi State 43, while both quarterbacks rank inside the top 15 nationally in passing EPA per dropback. Alabama has the better defense, butMississippi State has an answer on the ground, ranking fourth nationally in rushing success rate and sixth in EPA per rush. That balance should keep Kamario Taylor out of obvious passing situations and help the home team sustain drives. On the other side, Bama has scored at least 45 points in every game, and Keelon Russell gets the better matchup through the air.
The metrics may make the Alabama Tide the better team, but not by enough to lay nearly a touchdown on the road.
Alabama ranks eighth nationally in net adjusted EPA per play and 19th in defensive EPA per play, while Mississippi State ranks 20th overall and 12th in offensive EPA per play. That gap explains the favorite, but the Mississippi State Bulldogs offense is certainly good enough to stay attached.
It ranks fourth nationally in rushing success rate at 55.6% and produces 0.30 EPA per play, giving it a way to stay balanced against Alabama’s defense. I've been particularly impressed by this Tide defense early on and haven't played on fading them anytime soon. However, that is too much given everything surrounding this matchup. This number is playable down to +4.5 with a young Alabama QB making his first road start and Kamari Taylor on the other side.
Mississippi State’s early-down offense produces 0.30 EPA per play (13th nationally), and the Bulldogs convert 60.0% of third- and fourth-down opportunities (ninth nationally). That gives them a path to control the first half before Alabama’s depth takes over. The script is Mississippi State ahead early, Alabama rallies, and the game finishes with both teams scoring in the mid-30s.
ALA vs MSST Consensus Picks
ALA vs MSST Props
| GAME & PLAYER PROPS | PROJECTIONS | ANALYSIS | BEST ODDS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
PASSING YARDS
MSST
K. Taylor
(QB)
u264.5 Passing Yards
248.27 UNDER
PROJECTION
-16.2
DIFFERENCE
22.89%
EV
|
|||||||
|
PASSING YARDS
ALA
K. Russell
(QB)
u274.5 Passing Yards
259.68 UNDER
PROJECTION
-14.8
DIFFERENCE
22.6%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING YARDS
ALA
D. Hill
(RB)
o43.5 Rushing Yards
64.02 OVER
PROJECTION
+20.5
DIFFERENCE
27.2%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING YARDS
ALA
K. Russell
(QB)
o27.5 Rushing Yards
28.94 OVER
PROJECTION
+1.4
DIFFERENCE
19.57%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
ALA
R. Scott
(WR)
o29.5 Receiving Yards
42.52 OVER
PROJECTION
+13.0
DIFFERENCE
25.97%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
ALA
D. Hill
(RB)
o5.5 Receiving Yards
13.29 OVER
PROJECTION
+7.8
DIFFERENCE
25.81%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
MSST
A. Evans III
(WR)
o75.5 Receiving Yards
87.07 OVER
PROJECTION
+11.6
DIFFERENCE
25.77%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
ALA
K. Edwards
(TE)
o25.5 Receiving Yards
33.05 OVER
PROJECTION
+7.6
DIFFERENCE
24.7%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
MSST
M. Johnson
(WR)
o29.5 Receiving Yards
38.09 OVER
PROJECTION
+8.6
DIFFERENCE
24.59%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
ALA
L. Brooks
(WR)
o59.5 Receiving Yards
66.44 OVER
PROJECTION
+6.9
DIFFERENCE
22.09%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
MSST
Z. Ragins
(WR)
o38.5 Receiving Yards
42.14 OVER
PROJECTION
+3.6
DIFFERENCE
20.51%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
R. Coleman-Williams
(WR)
o69.5 Receiving Yards
71.15 OVER
PROJECTION
+1.6
DIFFERENCE
11%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS
R. Coleman-Williams
(WR)
u4.5 Receptions
4.37 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.1
DIFFERENCE
14.97%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS
ALA
R. Scott
(WR)
u3.5 Receptions
3.09 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.4
DIFFERENCE
1.63%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS
MSST
A. Evans III
(WR)
u6.5 Receptions
6.25 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.3
DIFFERENCE
-8.04%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS
MSST
Z. Ragins
(WR)
o2.5 Receptions
2.68 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.2
DIFFERENCE
-11.55%
EV
|
|||||||
|
CARRIES
ALA
D. Hill
(RB)
o8.5 Carries
12.86 OVER
PROJECTION
+4.4
DIFFERENCE
23.25%
EV
|
|||||||
|
CARRIES
MSST
K. Taylor
(QB)
u11.5 Carries
11.31 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.2
DIFFERENCE
13.95%
EV
|
|||||||
|
CARRIES
ALA
K. Russell
(QB)
u8.5 Carries
7.36 UNDER
PROJECTION
-1.1
DIFFERENCE
12.5%
EV
|
|||||||
|
COMPLETIONS
ALA
K. Russell
(QB)
u20.5 Completions
20.34 UNDER
PROJECTION
-0.2
DIFFERENCE
-3.12%
EV
|
|||||||
|
COMPLETIONS
MSST
K. Taylor
(QB)
o19.5 Completions
19.88 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.4
DIFFERENCE
-10.01%
EV
|
|||||||
- Proj. Diff: Low to High
- Proj. Diff: High to Low
- Proj. Rating: Low to High
- Proj. Rating: High to Low
- +EV: Low to High
- +EV: High to Low
Recent Form Trends
Crimson Tide are 6-0 ATS in their last 6 meetings.
Favorite is 6-0 ATS in their last 6 meetings.
Bulldogs are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games overall.
Over is 4-0 in Crimson Tide last 4 games overall.
Over is 4-0 in Crimson Tide last 4 games as a favorite.
Over is 4-0 in Crimson Tide last 4 games on grass.
Bulldogs are 7-1 ATS in their last 8 games as a favorite.
Bulldogs are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games following a straight up win.