Florida vs Missouri   Picks & Props

The Florida Gators just beat No. 4 Ole Miss 52-28, so a letdown argument is obvious with a road trip to face the Missouri Tigers. 

That said, I'm not letting that erase the matchup. I'll play the Gators to -6.

Florida ranks 14th in net adjusted EPA per play, while Missouri sits 72nd overall and 107th offensively. The Tigers’ defense is the reason this is not a runaway. It ranks 31st overall and third in pass success rate allowed. Florida can attack the softer part of the matchup on the ground, where its rushing offense ranks fifth in EPA per rush against Missouri’s 50th-ranked rush defense. There's not a ton here to get you believing in head coach Eli Drinkwitz either. Since 2024, Missouriis 1-9 vs. ranked teams, with its only win vs. No. 24 Boston College in 2024.

I'm playing the Under down to 57%. 

If there's any hangover from Florida, this is one of the best ways to capitalize on it. A few late stat-padding touchdowns from the Gators made this number overinflated. 

The Tigers rank sixth nationally in defensive success rate and third in pass success rate allowed. Florida will score; I expect them to cover, after all, but it may have to earn points with longer drives instead of relying on constant explosives. On the other side, I expect the Gators defense to make Missouri uncomfortable. Its defense has allowed just 0.07 EPA per play on early downs. That should help keep Missouri behind schedule, especially given its offensive success rate sits squarely in the triple digits, ranking-wise, in the sport.

One of the great mysteries of college football is Missouri's ability to stay ranked despite almost always lacking quality wins. Mizzou is 7-20 against AP Top-25 opponents since 2020 (including 5-8 at home) and is also 0-16 against SEC teams that go on to finish the season with a winning record in SEC play. Meanwhile, Jon Sumrall has the Gators rolling again and is coming off a 52-28 win over Ole Miss, in which they rumbled for 300+ yards on the ground. I expect that level to travel on Saturday.

I don't think the market can catch up with this Florida offense, who I think has the best offense in the country. In their three games vs FBS opponents, they've gone over the total by an average of 26 PPG! On the other side, I like Missouri's quarterback and I expect their offense to be able to score well into the 20s, maybe even the 30s.