Miami (FL) vs Clemson Picks & Props
MIA vs CLEM Picks
NCAAF PicksMiami vs. Clemson is one of the biggest matchups on the Week 5 slate, and I’m backing the Hurricanes to cover the 16.5-point spread. Clemson is coming off a 24-10 win over California after traveling across the country, and now the Tigers face a much tougher test against the No. 4 team in the country. Miami has little room for error as it aims for another College Football Playoff berth while playing a relatively easy schedule. Clemson will be the toughest opponent the Hurricanes have faced this season, but Miami should have a significant talent advantage. I’m comfortable taking Miami up to 20.5.
Regardless of the weather, Miami's ground attack will have a field day against a Clemson defense that has struggled to stop the run (130th in success rate) thanks largely to an outgunned defensive front (135th in line yards).
There's a 71% chance of rain, so the forecast isn't smiling upon a hallmark offensive performance. That could slow down Miami's national-leading passing attack (0.84 EPA per pass), at least enough to keep the total down.
Lay Miami up to -17.5. Clemson's offensive line, ranked 136th in front seven havoc, will be in deep water against Miami's disruptive defensive front (third in PFF's pass-rush grade).
Clemson isn't new to slow starts, averaging 21 total points in the first half of its last three games. What starts as a sludgefest in a rainy game will open into a Miami rout after the Hurricanes acclimate to the weather and the environment and let the trenches do the talking.
MIA vs CLEM Consensus Picks
45% picking Miami (FL)
Total Picks MIA 213, CLEM 256
MIA vs CLEM Props
| GAME & PLAYER PROPS | PROJECTIONS | ANALYSIS | BEST ODDS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
PASSING YARDS
CLEM
T. Reynolds
(QB)
o174.5 Passing Yards
194.91 OVER
PROJECTION
+20.4
DIFFERENCE
24.89%
EV
|
|||||||
|
PASSING YARDS
D. Mensah
(QB)
o249.5 Passing Yards
255.99 OVER
PROJECTION
+6.5
DIFFERENCE
5.75%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING YARDS
CLEM
G. Davidson
(RB)
u56.5 Rushing Yards
48.05 UNDER
PROJECTION
-8.5
DIFFERENCE
22.7%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RUSHING YARDS
MIA
M. Fletcher Jr.
(RB)
o79.5 Rushing Yards
87.51 OVER
PROJECTION
+8.0
DIFFERENCE
20.97%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
MIA
C. Barkate
(WR)
o49.5 Receiving Yards
67.14 OVER
PROJECTION
+17.6
DIFFERENCE
27.2%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
CLEM
B. Wesco Jr.
(WR)
o49.5 Receiving Yards
61.82 OVER
PROJECTION
+12.3
DIFFERENCE
27.07%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
CLEM
T. Moore
(WR)
o49.5 Receiving Yards
65.35 OVER
PROJECTION
+15.8
DIFFERENCE
26.88%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
MIA
D. Upshaw
(WR)
o18.5 Receiving Yards
25.22 OVER
PROJECTION
+6.7
DIFFERENCE
25.9%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
MIA
M. Toney
(WR)
o99.5 Receiving Yards
114.74 OVER
PROJECTION
+15.2
DIFFERENCE
21.61%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS
MIA
M. Fletcher Jr.
(RB)
u1.5 Receptions
0.48 UNDER
PROJECTION
-1.0
DIFFERENCE
19.02%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS
MIA
C. Barkate
(WR)
o3.5 Receptions
4.47 OVER
PROJECTION
+1.0
DIFFERENCE
10.8%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEPTIONS
MIA
M. Toney
(WR)
o7.5 Receptions
8.34 OVER
PROJECTION
+0.8
DIFFERENCE
-1.48%
EV
|
|||||||
- Proj. Diff: Low to High
- Proj. Diff: High to Low
- Proj. Rating: Low to High
- Proj. Rating: High to Low
- +EV: Low to High
- +EV: High to Low
Recent Form Trends
Hurricanes are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games on grass.
Hurricanes are 7-0 ATS in their last 7 games after accumulating more than 450 total yards in their previous game.
Over is 5-0 in Hurricanes last 5 games on grass.
Home team is 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings.
Hurricanes are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as a road underdog.
Hurricanes are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 games as an underdog.
Hurricanes are 8-1 ATS in their last 9 games overall.
Hurricanes are 8-1 ATS vs. a team with a winning record.
ROI Trends
MIA vs CLEM Top User Picks
'KRU' is picking Miami (FL) to cover (-16.5)
KRU is #1 on picking games that Clemson is in with a record of (4-0-0) and +3500 units on the season.
'wordziplay' is picking Miami (FL) to cover (-17.5)
wordziplay is #10 on picking games that Miami (FL) is in with a record of (4-0-0) and +2950 units on the season.
'nbahoops' is picking Miami (FL) to cover (-17.5)
nbahoops is #2 on picking games that Miami (FL) is in with a record of (3-1-0) and +2950 units on the season.
'nfl_brosuf' is picking Clemson to cover (+17.5)
nfl_brosuf is #2 on picking games that Clemson is in with a record of (4-0-0) and +2950 units on the season.
'faucet' is picking Clemson to cover (+17.5)
faucet is #3 on picking games that Clemson is in with a record of (3-1-0) and +2950 units on the season.
'faustobone' is picking Miami (FL) to cover (-17.5)
faustobone is #4 on picking games that Clemson is in with a record of (4-0-0) and +2950 units on the season.
'SUNIN65' is picking Miami (FL) to cover (-18.5)
SUNIN65 is #5 on picking games that Clemson is in with a record of (3-0-0) and +2500 units on the season.
'derekpderek' is picking Miami (FL) to cover (-17.5)
derekpderek is #6 on picking games that Miami (FL) is in with a record of (4-0-0) and +2950 units on the season.
'Wolfie7' is picking Miami (FL) to cover (-17.5)
Wolfie7 is #6 on picking games that Clemson is in with a record of (2-0-0) and +2500 units on the season.
'DREAMER693' is picking Miami (FL) to cover (-17.5)
DREAMER693 is #7 on picking games that Miami (FL) is in with a record of (3-1-0) and +2950 units on the season.
'elpedro2007' is picking Miami (FL) to cover (-18.5)
elpedro2007 is #8 on picking games that Miami (FL) is in with a record of (4-0-0) and +2950 units on the season.
'rladish' is picking Clemson to cover (+17.5)
rladish is #8 on picking games that Clemson is in with a record of (2-1-0) and +2450 units on the season.