North Texas vs Tulsa Picks & Props
UNT vs TLSA Picks
NCAAF PicksNorth Texas has scored 44+ points in three of its four games, but those came against three defenses ranked 90th or worse by SP+. Tulsa is ranked 60th and has held three of four opponents to 17 or fewer, including Oklahoma State. It's not just about the Golden Hurricanes' defense, either. Their offense lends well to limiting opponents because it takes a ball-control approach, running just 63.7 plays per game, the 104th most in FBS.
Tulsa has one of the best defenses in the Group of Six (60th by SP+) and an offense that limits opponents' possessions by running the 104th-most plays per game in the country (63.7). That's helped Tulsa hit the Under in all four games this season and should help the Golden Hurricanes limit North Texas' high-powered attack. UNT's defense is underrated, too, and held UNLV to just six points.
Tulsa QB Baylor Hayes is 50/50 to play, according to Tre Lamb. But despite his injury, the Golden Hurricanes' defense can lead them to a win. Tulsa is 43rd nationally in net EPA per play on defense and 53rd in defensive success (43.2%). It leans heavily on a ball-control offense that's 104th in plays per game (63.7). That should limit North Texas' offensive possessions and disrupt the Mean Green's rhythm.
This game could get off to a slow start with poor weather leading up to kickoff. If that doesn't slow the scoring enough, Tulsa's style of play should. The Golden Hurricanes have one of the best defenses in the G6 (43rd in net EPA per play) and an offense that limits possessions for opponents (104th in plays per game).
UNT vs TLSA Consensus Picks
UNT vs TLSA Props
| GAME & PLAYER PROPS | PROJECTIONS | ANALYSIS | BEST ODDS | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
|
RUSHING YARDS
UNT
J. White
(RB)
o79.5 Rushing Yards
93.87 OVER
PROJECTION
+14.4
DIFFERENCE
24.82%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
UNT
J. Stevenson
(WR)
o64.5 Receiving Yards
69.81 OVER
PROJECTION
+5.3
DIFFERENCE
23.99%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
UNT
J. Martin
(WR)
o29.5 Receiving Yards
32.91 OVER
PROJECTION
+3.4
DIFFERENCE
23.22%
EV
|
|||||||
|
RECEIVING YARDS
UNT
J. White
(RB)
o29.5 Receiving Yards
31.92 OVER
PROJECTION
+2.4
DIFFERENCE
20.38%
EV
|
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- Proj. Diff: Low to High
- Proj. Diff: High to Low
- Proj. Rating: Low to High
- Proj. Rating: High to Low
- +EV: Low to High
- +EV: High to Low
Recent Form Trends
Under is 5-0 in Golden Hurricane last 5 games overall.
Under is 5-0 in Golden Hurricane last 5 games as a favorite.
Under is 5-0 in Golden Hurricane last 5 games on fieldturf.
Over is 5-0 in Mean Green last 5 games after allowing less than 20 points in their previous game.
Over is 5-0 in Mean Green last 5 games after allowing less than 275 total yards in their previous game.
Under is 4-0 in Golden Hurricane last 4 home games.
Mean Green are 4-0 ATS in their last 4 meetings.
Under is 4-0 in Golden Hurricane last 4 games following a straight up loss of more than 20 points.