LSU @ Vanderbilt Picks & Props

Meanwhile, the LSU offense continues to struggle. The offensive line has dealt with injuries and inconsistent play, preventing Garrett Nussmeier from finding any rhythm. LSU ranks 77th in success rate and has not scored more than 23 points vs. any FBS opponent this season.

And Vandy’s D hasn’t been too bad either, ranking 25th in EPA per play and 43rd in success rate.

Combine all that with Vandy being at home, and Broadway should be bumping on Saturday. I think the Commodores win this by at least a touchdown.

Nussmeier has only thrown for 258 yards or more in a game once this season, when he went for 273 yards against SE Louisiana of the Southland Conference. Vanderbilt has the fourth-most sacks in the SEC, so they can definitely move the senior pivot off his spot, and Under his passing yards total Saturday.

Junior Sherrill leads the Commodores with five TD grabs on the season, and ranks second in both receptions and receiving yards. He’s got a gettable 39.5 receiving line Saturday, a total he’s passed in three straight games, including his six grabs for 49 yards against Alabama.

Sedrick Alexander leads the Commodores with nine total TDs on the season. He picked up Vandy’s only two touchdowns in a 30-14 loss to Alabama last week, one rushing and one receiving. He’s only been shut out of the end zone once in 2025.

Quarterbacks run the ball often against LSU, and that is a mistake. Those designed QB runs cost an average of 0.204 expected points per attempt, per CFB-graphs.com. Vanderbilt will be better served by reining Diego Pavia in for once. His absolute best is no longer necessary for the Commodores. They have the players around him to succeed as long as he keeps things moving productively. Against LSU in particular, production will best come from the pocket.

LSU's inability to turn red zone trips into points has hindered its offense all season. The Tigers couldn't top 20 points against either South Carolina nor Ole Miss, both of whom have defenses that are about average.

And while Vanderbilt's offense is better than what both those programs could throw at LSU, the Commodores continue to commit costly penalties at inopportune times. Vanderbilt will also be facing an LSU defense ranked in the Top 20 in PPQD and quality drive rate, as well as EPA vs both the run and pass.

Vandy will wear down LSU's defense in the second half and get the win, but this total should remain under the number. 

LSU is struggling to turn quality drives into points, ranking 124th in PPQD. That's in large part due to a nearly non-existent rushing attack that ranks 125th in success rate.

It's a big reason why the Tigers have failed to top 20 points in four games against power conference opposition, including at home this weekend against a South Carolina squad that Vanderbilt beat 31-7 on the road a month ago.

Diego Pavia leads a better offense than what Ole Miss presented, and LSU's defense will wear down against the Commodores and their up-tempo style. Give me the well-rested home team laying less than a field goal.